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by AdieuToLogic 9 days ago
> Where does your short term reserves claim come from? Genuinely interested.

Familial experience in one of the major US energy (oil) corporations headquartered in east Texas.

> Regarding 118, this is about probability. Given we're at 96 and backwardated?

The 118 peaks are separated by 4 weeks and the local minima of 92 from a week ago has already risen to almost 98 as of 6/3 close-of-business. This does not support a backwardation trend and, instead, could be reasonably identified as the beginning of another spike.

> What is the probability that we hit 150?

This is a question energy executives must answer. Fortunately, one did:

  The price of physical Brent oil cargoes will spike to $150 
  to $160 per barrel when inventories hit all-time lows in 
  coming weeks, the executive said. “When the price gets to a 
  certain level, demand destruction brings it back into 
  balance,” he said.[0]
0 - https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/28/oil-inventory-exxon-strait-h...
1 comments

So what do you think the true reason is that the market is so backwardated? (another genuine question)
> So what do you think the true reason is that the market is so backwardated?

It is not.

The only way to support a backwardation claim is to ignore the 24 months of pre-war market behavior. If analysis is limited to the last three calendar weeks, then the local minima might be called a backwardation.

Problem is, there are no geopolitical, market demand, and/or military indicators to support this point in time being an actual backwardation.