[don_esteban]

I bow to your grand understanding of Oil Economy, Global Geopolitics, Military Matters etc.

Just somehow can't fathom how (with all your superior understanding) you can utter this nonsense: Any collateral damage to world/oil economy etc. were managed and stabilized.

If you had not noticed, the oil and gas (and fertilizer, and aluminium, and helium) are still barely dripping, not flowing. And the end does not really appear in sight. The damage is definitively not managed and stabilized.

My original point was that UAE raising their production capacity is irrelevant as long as Hormuz is not open, as the bypass pipeline is of limited capacity. The only relevant thing you were able to say (but not substantiate) is that surely UEA will be able to build a parallel pipeline in 2 years. Time will tell.

[rramadass]

Again, zero understanding of what i had written.

The "were" in Any collateral damage to world/oil economy etc. were managed and stabilized. refers to past ME conflicts and how eventually they were all managed and stabilized. If you cannot comprehend basic English nothing can be done.

As regards the current conflict, it is still ongoing and so the situation is in flux. But what can be said is that the effects so far have been muted than what was anticipated. Here is a detailed analysis; but the nuances need some thought which might be beyond you - The Weirdest Aspect of the Iran War That Has Oil Experts Scratching Their Heads - https://medium.com/newsarticulated/the-weirdest-aspect-of-th...

Your original point (if there was any) had been shown to be clueless with simple math (ADCOP capacity as a percentage of OPEC cap) and geography (bypassing Hormuz). The previously linked articles detailed massive investments by gulf countries to build infrastructure to bypass Hormuz starting decades ago with the current situation accelerating it all.

It is only your obtuseness/ego which is refusing to accept plain facts. Reminds me of a quote by Poe - "Stupidity is a talent for misconception."

[don_esteban]

You have shown nothing to disprove my original point, just throwing irrelevant or wrong statements at the wall.

Massive investments by gulf countries to build infrastructure to bypass Hormuz starting decades ago ... and still nothing much to show up for that. The math is simple: despite those massive long term investments, the total capacity to bypass Hormuz is still a small fraction of what usually went through there. You provided only hand-wawing when pressed that it will take many years to raise that bypass capacity.

To say nothing about extreme vulnerability of those pipelines and their pumping stations ... the only solution is peace in the region, and not 'peace through strength' - we are witnessing now where that leads to.

It is incredible how well your last statement fits you.

[rramadass]

Your comments take the cake for obtuseness, lack of comprehension and lack of reasoning. You are just engaging in silly echolalia.

I had provided many sources to show how things are and how they are developing. The sources to do with infrastructure even shows which all countries (there are two) had been bypassing Hormuz for a while now with their alternative pipelines. It also showed the level of investments going on to accelerate their developments. And yet you are engaging in childish "nah, nah, nah" behaviour.

I can only shake my head bemusedly being reminded of the truism of Einstein's quote - "Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I'm not sure about the universe".

[don_esteban]

Did you actually read the sources you provided, with the keen eyes to see what is written, and not what you wish to be there?

To quote (from your provided https://www.dw.com/en/iran-war-strait-of-hormuz-oil-supply-r...)

"Gulf states race to bypass Hormuz

Gulf leaders, meanwhile, are moving ahead with plans that will allow more of their crude oil to bypass the strait entirely and help to secure exports in the long term.

Earlier this month, the Financial Times reported that Saudi Arabia, the UAE and others were actively considering new oil pipelines to run parallel with existing structures, along with expanded export terminals on alternative coastlines."

the important part: 'actively considering', not even starting to build, just considering

"Saudi Arabia, UAE need to 'double' pipeline capacity"

I am well aware of the two existing pipelines, how long it took to actually build them, and how limited their capacity is compared to the actual need if Hormuz is closed. Yet, you still can't comprehend that wishful thinking about the future does not change the current dire situation.

That's why we talk past each other: You are talking about optimal future you pretend will inevitably happen very, very soon. I am talking about the reality here and now.

[rramadass]

Again this nonsense; Don't selectively quote from one source which is dishonest.

That link and the other sources i had provided contain more data which you are intentionally obfuscating.

There are already a few existing bypass pipelines and older ones are being recommissioned in addition to planned new ones. For your edification, here is a short reuters note on existing and proposed (does not list all) pipelines bypassing Hormuz - https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/alternative-routes-m...

Finally, note that capacities of existing pipelines can also be increased by using techniques like "Drag Reducing Agents" (DRA) amongst others.

[don_esteban]

How fortuitous of you to provide me with more ammo to prove my point. :-)

All the 'possible alternative routes' remain in 'conceptual' stage. The east/west and Fujeirah pipelines are operational, and, as discussed before, insufficient. That was my whole point (especially w.r.t. to UAE).

The KIRKUK-CEYHAN pipeline is middling (170k barrels/day, up to 250k) and does not help UAE at all.

The Goreh-Jask pipeline is in IRAN! (an not really operational), does not help UAE at all.

Don't you read with comprehension? Don't you see that this is another irrelevant reference that does not address my point at all?