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by dangus 76 days ago
This article is written with a little bit of a journalist’s misunderstanding of a topic.

They seem to have done research but have strung together unrelated subjects due to their lack of expertise in the subjects.

As a result it reads more like a summary or recap of vaguely related stories.

For example, Tesla’s pivot to robots has nothing to do with their advanced nature of their wiring harnesses, but it’s spoken in the same breath as if to imply that a Tesla Cybertruck (which is a Model Y with paneling literally glued on top) is more similar to a humanoid robot than a Mustang Mach-E.

In reality, what has happened is that the Model S and X have been discontinued and they’re the only products the Fremont, CA plant produces. Tesla has literally nothing else they can make in that plant. They either make Optimus robots or shut the plant down.

Optimus robot production is a face saving move. Tesla barely needs a fraction of that factory to build robots…it’s a much lower-volume and physically smaller product.

I should note that none of that has anything to do with Tesla being great at robotics and seeing it as a better business than automobiles. It has everything to do with competitors catching up and Tesla having insufficient development capability to iterate on those vehicles.

Who in the buyer demographic for a Model S wouldn’t take a Porsche Taycan, AUD A6 Sportback, or Lucid Air over that vehicle?

Who in the buyer demographic for the Model X won’t take a Kia EV9, Lucid Gravity, or Volvo EX-90?

Maybe if you aren’t paying attention to the car industry you’ll disagree with me but the problem here is the Model S and X are positively ancient with about zero dollars spent on keeping them updated and they’ve become completely irrelevant to the market as a result.

5 comments

> Maybe if you aren’t paying attention to the car industry you’ll disagree with me but the problem here is the Model S and X are positively ancient with about zero dollars spent on keeping them updated and they’ve become completely irrelevant to the market as a result.

In practice they essentially got replaced with the Model 3 and Y, which didn't exist when the models being discontinued first came out.

It's because of the decline in battery prices. When the Model S came out, an electric car with that range had to be that price. Now it's overpriced for what it is so they'd either need to design one which is significantly more premium while still selling into an inherently lower volume market segment, or lower the price to reflect the current battery costs and then have it be too close to the Model 3.

What they really need to do is continue to move down, i.e. release a subcompact with less range than the Model 3 but on the cheap.

Or build a truck people actually want.

> Who in the buyer demographic for a Model S wouldn’t take a Porsche Taycan, AUD A6 Sportback, or Lucid Air over that vehicle?

I guess me, though I’d probably opt for the Y instead. I have a friend who drives a Taycan, one of the sportier variants with 4 wheel steering and blistering acceleration, and it’s nice, but it’s clear that they’re still crap at computers and interfaces, and I just really don’t want to go back to traditional car industry software interfaces and feature sets after our Tesla. I doubly don’t want to deal with a dealership ever again. Also, love their mobile service which comes to our garage and fixed a flat on two different occasions while I was working at home, super convenient. Roadside assistance was great when we got a flat in the middle of nowhere with no shops open anywhere nearby, they coordinated getting a tow truck out to us to tow it to a Costco like 40 miles away, gratis. Also, it’s just been a great car for us, extremely practical, great for long road trips, fun to drive, the autopilot works well and makes long drives much more pleasant, especially traffic. I don’t know why people confidently declare them to be bad cars - our experience hasn’t been flawless, but as a total package, it’s been the best car ownership experience I’ve had, including Acura, Toyota, Subaru, BMW, Nissans. I guess some combination of not liking Elon, and the issues from the scale-up period when they were making model 3s in tents, though those are long gone.

> though I’d probably opt for the Y instead

This is exactly what I'm talking about. You are not actually in the market for the class of vehicle the Model S or X competed with in the first place.

I'm not actually saying they are bad cars. What I am saying is that they now lack a buyer persona, which is why they're being discontinued.

When the S and X first came out, $90,000 was the price of entry for any electric car of that caliber. Anyone who wanted an electric car with that kind of range and charging network had just those two options.

But the reality is, the vast majority of people who want Teslas will choose the 3 or Y because, duh, obviously! You have to squint real hard at the door handles to even visibly tell the difference between the X and Y.

What I'm really getting at here is that the majority of buyers in the luxury segment, the kind of people blowing $90,000 plus on a vehicle, those are the people for which the S and X are not competitive. They don't give a shit about how good the software is on the iPad that was slapped on the Tesla dashboard. They probably just want CarPlay and Android Auto anyway. They are looking for hand stitched everything, paint to sample and semi-custom interior colors, and either overstated or understated luxury: they want to look like they belong at the country club (Range Rover, Volvo) or they want to look like they belong at the club (BMW, Porsche, Mercedes, Audi, etc).

For the Model S, it existed in a struggling segment of full-size sedans where you either have to be sporty as in driving enthusiast sporty or luxurious as in massaging seats. The Model S was a Toyota Crown with the leather package that went fast in a straight line.

The Model X is even more lost on demographics. It's an SUV with a bad 3rd row and wonky doors. More critically, it fails to hit any of the demographics you might want to hit: families don't want it because it doesn't have the minivan-like utility of vehicles like the Lucid Gravity, Kia EV9, or any of the gas competitors like the Telluride - or minivans themselves! For people who want a luxury SUV, it doesn't satisfy either type of club folk. You'll get a more refined build and luxurious experience in something like a Volvo EX-90. You'll stand out more in a BMW iX. And finally, the most successful segment of luxury SUV right now is the performance offroader: The Model X can't scratch the itch that the Rivian R1S, Sequoia TRD Pro, Ford Bronco Raptor, Lexus GX, Mercedes G Wagon, and a laundry list of other options I can't even think of right now because there are so many.

As a sidenote, when you describe mobile service to fix a flat tire and roadside assistance, you are literally describing AAA. This is not something Tesla invented. Roadside assistance is included with my car insurance. People who buy Porsches definitely get themselves a similarly good experience. These are not dealerships that are generally unpleasant, they aren't exactly your local Hyundai franchise.

Yeah fair points, I don’t really know the people you’re describing. My demographic wants a really good car, as comfortable and headache-free as possible, and would be happier if no one knew it was pricey. I was considering an X because of the supposedly better suspension, better ergonomics for kids/more passengers, and slightly better third row, but I think they’ve generally not focused on them enough in recent years, and the doors seem like a bit of a maintenance nightmare. So yeah, I guess it DQ’d itself a bit.

> As a sidenote, when you describe mobile service to fix a flat tire and roadside assistance, you are literally describing AAA.

Haha do they come to your garage for routine maintenance? If so, I need to have another look at them. My point was that it’s a packaged experience that adds up to be pretty delightful, with a minimum of work on my part.

> These are not dealerships that are generally unpleasant, they aren't exactly your local Hyundai franchise.

Last dealerships I have experience with are Mercedes and BMW, same shit, different veneer, arguably douchier salespeople.

While I agree that at home service a convenience perk and won’t deny you that, Tesla (and Rivian/Polestar/Lucid or any of those other smaller brands) are only doing that service at home because they have to, because there aren’t service networks in place and people won’t buy their cars if they have to drive multiple hours to find a service technician.

I think problem with coming to your house for routine maintenance is that a shop is a proper environment for service. They have things like car lifts and equipment that are not mobile. In that sense I’d rather my car just be a car that can be serviced by the dozens of mechanics and dealerships that are located within 5-10 miles of my house.

I would also point out that this mobile service setup is not convenient if you don’t own your own private garage with ample space to work in. If you park on the street, in a lot/public garage, or have a really tight condo garage you’re SOL then. Many condo and apartment rules don’t even allow you to do car maintenance in the place where you park.

What happens if your parking space is on an incline? Or when you’ve got weather like snow and rain, where being inside a proper shop versus out in a parking spot would not be ideal?

All of these variables are why a dedicated shop makes sense. Tesla would absolutely go that route and end if they sold as many vehicles as Toyota.

As far as dealer salespeople, you only interact with them, what, once every 10 years to buy a car? Or less if you’re financially frugal.

> Who in the buyer demographic for a Model S wouldn’t take a Porsche Taycan, AUD A6 Sportback, or Lucid Air over that vehicle?

> Who in the buyer demographic for the Model X won’t take a Kia EV9, Lucid Gravity, or Volvo EX-90?

The S and X are plenty competitive here for many buyers. Did any of those cars outsell the S in 2025 in the US? I would not trust a Kia or Volvo EV.

From what I can see doing some quick searches the EV9 sold 22,017 in 2024 just in the US, while Tesla's global deliveries of "other models" (S, X, and Cybertruck combined, which includes over 10,000 Cybertrucks) totaled 85,133. This, critically for this comparison, includes China.

The X is not competitive with proper 3-row SUVs as the 3rd row is not usable enough, and it was cannibalized by the Y which is not an upmarket luxury SUV as luxurious as EV SUVs that are in the Model X's price range.

Similar story goes for the Model S: they're discontinuing their upper luxury full-size sedan and no longer compete in that market at all.

Since Tesla doesn't split the numbers out it's hard to say but I would say anecdotally, seeing a Model S on the road is most common with older model years as most of those buyers clearly switched over to the Model 3 or Y instead.

The type of buyer who is actually looking for a $90,000 luxury vehicle, that's the type of person I am saying the X and S are not competitive with, which is why they're being discontinued.

Someone spending that much in 2016 on an S or X was getting a vehicle that was bleeding edge technology you couldn't get anywhere else.

Someone spending that much in 2026 will choose the extra luxury features, build quality, and brand prestige of something like a Porsche, Audi, BMW, Mercedes, or Lucid.

Sources:

https://insideevs.com/news/746147/kia-ev-sales-record-2024-u...

https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-fourth-quarter-2024...

> From what I can see doing some quick searches the EV9 sold 22,017 in 2024 just in the US, while Tesla's global deliveries of "other models" (S, X, and Cybertruck combined, which includes over 10,000 Cybertrucks) totaled 85,133. This, critically for this comparison, includes China.

Cars in the US. As in the Taycan, A6 e-tron, and Air. Maybe the Air had more sales in '25.

> The type of buyer who is actually looking for a $90,000 luxury vehicle, that's the type of person I am saying the X and S are not competitive with

> Someone spending that much in 2026 will choose the extra luxury features, build quality, and brand prestige of something like a Porsche, Audi, BMW, Mercedes, or Lucid.

This is a silly internet trope that doesn't align with reality. Many factors go into a car purchase. ADAS, appearances, software, reliability, performance, efficiency, charging network, trends, etc. The affordability of a car doesn't inform the preferences of the buyer.

But yes in 2026 they don't really have a choice unless they buy used.

> Which is why they're being discontinued.

Or they're being discontinued because they no longer serve a purpose for Tesla.

You think Tesla is discontinuing the cars because they no longer serve a purpose to Tesla? Isn’t the purpose of the company to make money by selling products?

Can you think of any other successful cars that are being discontinued for a similar reason and aren’t being replaced with a new model? Doesn’t pass the smell test.

You said people buy because of trends…well, the trend is away from Tesla and toward other brands. I don’t see any “I bought this before Mary Barra went crazy” bumper stickers on Silverados.

As of the first 9 months of 2025 before tax incentive expired, GM sells about 1/3 of Tesla’s EV sales volume. They grew EV sales by 200% between 2022 and 2024. The #1 EV brand in Europe is Volkswagen. #1 in China is BYD. Reports indicate that the Shanghai Tesla factory is far below capacity and that Tesla has its largest unsold inventory ever.

You don’t have to agree with me on the current situation but we’ll be seeing how it all goes in a few short years

It's more plausible than what you're implying. Lucid, Rivian, and Tesla all have the same playbook. Sell luxury cars to fund a path towards an affordable platform.

Not all products need to continue to be made to be viewed as successful. S and X were low volume, high tech cars that paved the way to 3 and Y. The latter two have now consistently dominated US EV sales. By all accounts they were successful halo vehicles.

This idea makes sense conceptually, but in reality as we observe it, the companies that make low volume luxury products are often the most profitable carmakers in the industry.

BMW is the 2nd most profitable car company in the world and sells many mid/low volume vehicles like the 7 series.

This theory of yours also doesn’t do very well to explain the Cybertruck. Why would Tesla launch a $90k truck when their goal was supposedly to get out of low volume luxury vehicles and focus on high volume?

> Tesla Cybertruck (which is a Model Y with paneling literally glued on top)

Doesn't seem true?

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/20/business/tesla-cybertruck...

Although I'm wrong about it being closely enough related to the Model Y's platform to really say "it's a Model Y," many of those stainless steel panels are absolutely secured with fasteners and glue.

The author also asks:

“The question for your portfolio: who becomes the Corning, the Qualcomm, the TI of this stack?”

and it feels like a reading comprehension exercise, as the answer is right there in their article, even if they miss what the hard part about humanoid robotics is - hint, it’s not the actuators.

The answer is Nvidia. They’ve got the full stack, ready to license to everyone and anyone who wants to jump into autonomous vehicles or robotics - and as the article points out, they already are.