[goosejuice]

It's more plausible than what you're implying. Lucid, Rivian, and Tesla all have the same playbook. Sell luxury cars to fund a path towards an affordable platform.

Not all products need to continue to be made to be viewed as successful. S and X were low volume, high tech cars that paved the way to 3 and Y. The latter two have now consistently dominated US EV sales. By all accounts they were successful halo vehicles.

[dangus]

This idea makes sense conceptually, but in reality as we observe it, the companies that make low volume luxury products are often the most profitable carmakers in the industry.

BMW is the 2nd most profitable car company in the world and sells many mid/low volume vehicles like the 7 series.

This theory of yours also doesn’t do very well to explain the Cybertruck. Why would Tesla launch a $90k truck when their goal was supposedly to get out of low volume luxury vehicles and focus on high volume?

[goosejuice]

I don't think Tesla is a normal car company. If they actually wanted to compete with the luxury car makers they have the capital to do so. Even with the brand death, they could easily compete.

https://companiesmarketcap.com/automakers/largest-automakers...

> This theory of yours also doesn’t do very well to explain the Cybertruck. Why would Tesla launch a $90k truck when their goal was supposedly to get out of low volume luxury vehicles and focus on high volume?

Well it's not my theory, it already happened. Tesla built a brand with S and X and dominated the EV market for a decade.

The Cybertruck is about as halo as you can get, so I have no idea why they made so many. That said I also can't believe people actually bought it. It outsold the f-150 lightning in 2024. If I were to guess, I'd say the Cybertruck is a product and victim of Musk's psychosis.

[dangus]

(I promise I’m not intending to reply endlessly and generally be annoying I just still find the discussion interesting)

I think they are way more like a normal car company than they publicly admit. I make the argument that they are entirely like a normal car company, just a vertically integrated one like Hyundai/Kia.

They’d really like to have more upside than a normal car company due to their software and AI and robotics, but until the day they start selling those things to other companies it’s all unrealized.

Why wouldn't they want to compete with luxury automakers? It's the more profitable market segment. Every mass market car company selling a similarly high unit volume as Tesla has a luxury marquee because it's simple to reuse/modify the same platform, chuck in some more leather, massaging seats, and sound isolation materials, and toss on a fancier badge and marketing campaign.

The Cybertruck is indeed a strange halo car, but it really should have been a truck with more mainstream appeal. Elon psychosis is indeed highly responsible for that truck's failure, along with an inability to deliver the ballpark promises regarding price and range.

As of 2025 before the discontinuation of the Lightning F-150, the Cybertruck actually did not outsell the Lightning despite Ford essentially selling down remaining inventory, while the Silverado EV/Sierra EV (the best EV truck on the market for actual truck usability, IMO) is picking up the most momentum. GM is already outselling the Cybertruck:

https://ev.com/news/chevy-silverado-ev-sales-nearly-double-a...

Cybertruck is also going to in the future have the “Chrysler PT Cruiser” problem where it’s just about impossible to iterate on the styling for a second generation. Arguably they’ve already run through the Chrysler PT Cruiser lifecycle where it was incredibly cool on release but became something of a joke by the end of its run. Unfortunately with an overstyled car like that it’s difficult to predict whether it’ll be a timeless classic or…a PT Cruiser.