[stetrain]

But those cities do exist. Just mostly not in the US.

They also don’t need to make non-car options more convenient for all people, or even most people. The larger the share of non-car trips the better things get even for those who still drive, even if that share is going from 10% to 20%. Less congestion and pollution. Fewer traffic accidents. More density of housing in places that have high demand, reducing housing costs.

[taeric]

My point is that, even in the cities that you are referencing, the more affluent people almost always have a car. Because they can afford it, and because it is more convenient.

I'd be happy to be proven wrong on this. Essentially, my assertion is that you get more people out of cars by making them expensive than you do with city design. (Unless, of course, you consider parking costs part of city design?)

[bryanlarsen]

Yes, affluent people will pretty much always own cars. But with a pedestrian/cycle/transit friendly design, they'll use them much less.

I know affluent people in Copenhagen. They own cars. They are basically only used on the weekend, for travel outside of Copenhagen.

Amsterdam has 0.45 cars per household. So lots of households own cars, even in Amsterdam. But the miles driven per household per day is less than a quarter of what it is in the States.

[taeric]

I mean, cars per household is 2+ in large portions of the US.

Again, I'm largely inline with what you are speaking towards. The only change I'm making to the discourse is that, if you want fewer people owning cars, you pretty much have to make it more expensive. You can't just make the city more walkable. You have to make it expensive to own cars.

As I say downthread, this is inline with cheaper dense housing. If you want cheaper dense housing, you wind up with smaller living units. Often without dedicated parking allotments for all residents.

[bryanlarsen]

The goal isn't, or shouldn't be, fewer people owning cars. The goal should be fewer miles driven in urban areas. My cousin in Copenhagen basically only uses it for driving out to a rural area to visit her parents.

Owning a car in Denmark is incredibly expensive. That does significantly impact the ownership rate. And of course if fewer people own cars the miles driven by cars does go down. But lowering the ownership rate is a means to the end, not the end itself.

[taeric]

Fair, but largely to my point? If you want to lower the miles driven, you are going to be going through the same general steps along the way.

[bryanlarsen]

No, I disagree with your initial assertion.

> you get more people out of cars by making them expensive than you do with city design.

The city design is the prerequisite. If you don't have transit etc, people will own cars no matter how expensive the cars are (within reason, of course). Households in rural Denmark without access to transit own cars despite it being 2X as expensive as elsewhere.

Once you have transit, cranking the price becomes a much more effective mechanism.

[queenkjuul]

Amsterdam has fewer cars because it is designed to be convenient without one, not because cars are that much more expensive there.

[taeric]

Just searching "cost of owning a car in Amsterdam" says it is expensive, though? Now, it does cite parking costs as a major driver of that. Which, again, if you are willing to specifically make parking/driving expensive, I fully agree that city design can get fewer drivers.

This can be seen easily in NYC. The new congestion tolls on roads has shifted people from driving to transit. Not by any new physical design of the city, but by making it cost more to drive.

[queenkjuul]

NYC already had one of the lowest rates of car ownership in the country due to its physical design though.

[stetrain]

> (Unless, of course, you consider parking costs part of city design?)

Absolutely. The amount of space taken up by parking, and its related cost, and things like congestion charges, are part of city planning.

And you can still significantly reduce the number of cars and car-trips without eliminating car ownership. A household with one car used occasionally when it’s convenient needs less parking and driving space than one with two cars driven daily.

[taeric]

So on this we are in complete agreement. My criticism is when people show walkable cities, they need to underline that majority of those people will own a car if they can financially make it happen. Almost bar none.

[stetrain]

I think that may be a bit of an exaggeration.

Yes the financial component is part of it. Building dense walkable urban developments makes car ownership more expensive and non-car options cheaper and more convenient.

Some would argue that in many places car ownership is being subsidized by the way we develop and tax.

Some households will still have cars, but households are not the same as individual people.

And I think there are plenty of places where the majority of households don’t own cars. You can say they would if it was cheap and convenient enough, but that’s the whole point we’re discussing. Not dedicating so much development and infrastructure to cars will make them less convenient and more expensive options than the alternatives for at least some of the population.

[taeric]

I could just be wrong. Nor am I aiming for exaggerated effect, though. I legit have grown to feel that people will get a car if they can afford it. Pretty much everywhere. As I said, I'd be happy to be proven wrong on this.

This is related with the housing discussions. People have somewhat convinced themselves that cheap standalone houses are the goal. Which, I suppose there is no reason that can't be the goal. But compare average home size in pretty much any US city with some of these walkable cities you have in mind.

When I do that, I start asking how related those two things are. And I'm growing rather convinced that people have built up a mental idea that they can live with all of the benefits of both worlds, without contending with the contrast between them.

[bkettle]

I think you're probably right that eventually, most people will own a car. But I think the time in your life where you decide to buy one matters substantially, and is modulated quite a lot by city design.

I'm pretty young now, and I could afford a car. I expect that I will probably buy one at some point in the future. But I can easily live my life without one for now, so I have decided to save that money instead. If I lived in Houston, I don't think that would be the case.

None of my friends that I know in NYC own cars. All of my friends that live in my hometown own cars.

[stetrain]

Yes, my point is just that the financial feasibility is related to the policy decisions.

For example you could say that most people who live in Manhattan would choose to live in a 2000sqft+ detached home if it was financially feasible to do so.

But because there is limited space, high demand, and city policy allows high density, such a home is not financially feasible for almost anyone in Manhattan.

And of course that applies in sprawling metro areas like Houston as well. Forcing large swaths of single-family zoning despite the market forces means that housing supply can’t grow with demand, so cost of housing increases.

[queenkjuul]

This really just isn't true. Most people i know here in Chicago take transit or bike in the city. Many people i know who can easily afford a car choose not to because it's so easy to get around without one.

Make a city that doesn't require a car, and people that aren't compelled to use one won't.

[taeric]

I'd love to be proven wrong on this. If you have data, very happy to see numbers showing I'm wrong.

My anecdote is everyone I know from Chicago doesn't take transit. Not many people, and I'm certainly not in a young group of folks from there.

[queenkjuul]

Chicago residents are 3x less likely to own a car compared to the national average, despite the costs being near the national average. Illinois as a whole is one of the least car-reliant states in the country.

https://datausa.io/profile/geo/chicago-il/

https://www.forbes.com/advisor/car-insurance/car-ownership-s...