I think this is part of the Balkanization of the West ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foundations_of_Geopolitics ) and I'm really surprised this is not stronger in Quebec, but I guess it's more easy to orchestrate a propaganda campaign in English.
Quebec separatism isn't popular right now, but I also think the the balkanization of the West is coming. The separatist party in Quebec has pretty good support right now, not because separatism is popular, but because of the lack of options.
Next elections are in 2026 and I think that by then, something, I don't know what, but some event, some context difficult to predict, will put back Quebec separatism on the forefront. This time around, there will be many, many less people coming to the front to defend Canada, which is already pretty weak now.
So yeah, that's my wild prediction: Canada doesn't exist anymore in 2027.
Isn't Trump's sole accomplishment making Canada more united? External threats are great at bringing people together, so while Quebec may have a rocky relationship with the rest of Canada, but they still much prefer the status quo over becoming the 51st state.
Look at the election map: the elected party has near-zero representation west of Ontario (even in the cities where you'd expect it to be, with the exception of Vancouver which is its own thing).
Westerners are unhappy with paying top tax dollar for policies that are intended to destroy Western economic productivity and culture (whether one likes what that is or not is ultimately irrelevant).
Thus- from their perspective- if Easterners cannot be reasoned with, then there's no reason that they should accept Eastern rule as legitimate. Thus the recent moves to, if not outright reject it entirely, renegotiate the amount of political power that their outsized economic productivity (especially per capita) is currently buying them... because for the last 6 years (with every indication that it'll actually be 10+ due to de facto Toronto/Quebec coalition government), it's zero.
The Conservative Party makes more sense as a nascent Bloc Ouest than anything else. And if Eastern voters continue to reject all their reforms, well, there's nothing illegitimate about ending an abusive marriage.
I failed to see how there's anything abusive about it. And it's not a marriage. Marriages can be ended. Generally most countries don't have exit clauses. Secession and splitting are freak events that usually only happen under extreme circumstances. Trying to do something if not nearly enough to slow down climate change is a terrible justification for leaving Canada
Yes, I agree that we can observe that phenomenon, but it's more a "public emotion" kind of movement. America's loss of its world police status means balkanization of many states and that's an undercurrent that is stronger than this temporary emotion.
Fundamentally, Canada's provinces don't care about each other. It's not a real country.
It's like when COVID broke out. The initial public emotion was "everything is going to be alright!". It went strong for a little while, but it broke off eventually.
Genuine question from someone ignorant about that ignorance: I'm aware of some desire for Quebec independence, I'd never heard of similar for Alberta. Is it extra propaganda value to stoke the independence movement somewhere it's less prevalent in hopes it riles up the area where it already is more pronounced? Assuming it is more pronounced - as I am not well informed on Canadian politics.
DISCLAIMER: This is from the perspective of a Quebecker, not an Albertan.
Alberta separatism is something that has been floated at various points in the zeitgeist, but for many, many reasons[0], I have mostly heard it spoken about unseriously by all but few on the fringe.
The Quebec sovereignty movement came on the wings of the Quiet Revolution[1] which had critical mass and large support from the francophone population which made up the vast majority of the province.
[0] It's unpopularity among alberans and impracticality as a landlocked province, being chief among them.
I am American but I know many conservative Canadians that this was basically the last straw. I am not even sure conservative is the right word. Just not liberal. They work a trade, like bars, beer, hockey and hanging out. They really don't care about politics at a deep level.
I had been sick of hearing them complain about Trudeau for years.
They thought it was obvious things were going to swing the other way and instead the country voted to stay on the same path that Trudeau literally resigned from.
Canada is basically a one party state at this point. It would be like if the only US media was the NY Times, MSNBC and CNN. The media jumped on Trump's comments about the 51st state and swung the election with ease.
It is not just Alberta, the people I know are in Ontario but there is nothing they can do. They would for sure move to Alberta if this happened. It will all be framed like this is some crazy fringe idea though even though 19 of 20 Canadians I know would agree.
The absurd thing to me with Alberta separatism is that there is no way the US would allow this. They would be a defenseless resource rich territory for Chinese infiltration.
Canada is in huge trouble. They are basically single party, money laundering haven at this point with a Soviet style media brainwashing regime.
Ultimately, In the long run I think Canada ends up a casualty caught in the cross fire between the US and China.
The reason the LPC keeps getting elected has a lot to do with the CPC pandering to quacks and pretty consistently picking pretty bad party leaders.
Conservatives should be more upset about Erin O’Toole losing to Trudeau than about Poilievre losing to Carney - that was more indicative of a bad party leader winning over a better one.
I live in Alberta, I voted Carney not because I care much for the liberals, though him being from Edmonton was a nice touch.
It was a vote against Poilievre, I'm not a fan of career politicians, less of those who only seem to have slogans and no bills with their names on them (well okay he got one passed).
I was slightly hopeful he'd take his pension and fuck off, yeah I'm in the trades too.
I agree. The sudden influence of the separatist movement does match what that book (Foundations of Geopolitics) says: "Russia should use its special services within the borders of the United States and Canada to fuel instability and separatism" (quote from Wikipedia). I don't want to be a conspiracy nut, but I have to wonder how many separatist and protest movements are unknowingly getting external support to produce geopolitical disorder.
> I don't want to be a conspiracy nut, but I have to wonder how many separatist and protest movements are unknowingly getting external support to produce geopolitical disorder.
I'm Latin-American, so this doesn't sound at all nutty to me. The USA has long been doing this: from successful attempts promoting separatism in Panama and Texas, to failed attempt in Sonora and Baja California (officially a private citizen acting in his own accord, but conveniently enjoying the complacency of the US Government). It's one of the strategies big powers use, and there's more examples of this in Europe, Asia, and the rest of the world.
I think it's worth considering that perhaps this isn't Russian-fueled separatism, but American-fueled. The would gain a lot USA from an independent Alberta. It'd go the way of Texas— independent for about a year and then incorporated into the United States. Moreover, Alberta statehood would create a geographical rift in Canada that would place immense pressure on British Columbia to go independent or join the United States too.
It would also make the future annexation of the Northwest Territories and the Yukon much more likely, which would not only give the USA better access to the North-West Passage [1] and a wealth of resources, but it would connect Alaska to the rest of the continental USA.
> have to wonder how many separatist and protest movements are unknowingly getting external support to produce geopolitical disorder.
Many movements "wittingly" receive external support. From wikipedia[0]:
> In 2022, a report by the Network Contagion Research Institute (NCRI) identified Qatar as the most significant foreign donor to American universities. The research revealed that from 2001 to 2021, US higher education institutions received US$13 billion in funding from foreign sources, with Qatar contributing donations totaling $4.7 billion to universities in the United States.
In addition to investing in US Universities, Qatar is also host to the the Hamas political apparatus, which operates out of Doha.
Foreign propagandists don't exclusively target right wing radical movements, they are very happy to exploit leftists as well!
Next elections are in 2026 and I think that by then, something, I don't know what, but some event, some context difficult to predict, will put back Quebec separatism on the forefront. This time around, there will be many, many less people coming to the front to defend Canada, which is already pretty weak now.
So yeah, that's my wild prediction: Canada doesn't exist anymore in 2027.