[vdupras]

Quebec separatism isn't popular right now, but I also think the the balkanization of the West is coming. The separatist party in Quebec has pretty good support right now, not because separatism is popular, but because of the lack of options.

Next elections are in 2026 and I think that by then, something, I don't know what, but some event, some context difficult to predict, will put back Quebec separatism on the forefront. This time around, there will be many, many less people coming to the front to defend Canada, which is already pretty weak now.

So yeah, that's my wild prediction: Canada doesn't exist anymore in 2027.

[decimalenough]

Isn't Trump's sole accomplishment making Canada more united? External threats are great at bringing people together, so while Quebec may have a rocky relationship with the rest of Canada, but they still much prefer the status quo over becoming the 51st state.

[qball]

No; it's actually made the division worse.

Look at the election map: the elected party has near-zero representation west of Ontario (even in the cities where you'd expect it to be, with the exception of Vancouver which is its own thing).

Westerners are unhappy with paying top tax dollar for policies that are intended to destroy Western economic productivity and culture (whether one likes what that is or not is ultimately irrelevant).

Thus- from their perspective- if Easterners cannot be reasoned with, then there's no reason that they should accept Eastern rule as legitimate. Thus the recent moves to, if not outright reject it entirely, renegotiate the amount of political power that their outsized economic productivity (especially per capita) is currently buying them... because for the last 6 years (with every indication that it'll actually be 10+ due to de facto Toronto/Quebec coalition government), it's zero.

The Conservative Party makes more sense as a nascent Bloc Ouest than anything else. And if Eastern voters continue to reject all their reforms, well, there's nothing illegitimate about ending an abusive marriage.

[rat87]

I failed to see how there's anything abusive about it. And it's not a marriage. Marriages can be ended. Generally most countries don't have exit clauses. Secession and splitting are freak events that usually only happen under extreme circumstances. Trying to do something if not nearly enough to slow down climate change is a terrible justification for leaving Canada

[vdupras]

Yes, I agree that we can observe that phenomenon, but it's more a "public emotion" kind of movement. America's loss of its world police status means balkanization of many states and that's an undercurrent that is stronger than this temporary emotion.

Fundamentally, Canada's provinces don't care about each other. It's not a real country.

It's like when COVID broke out. The initial public emotion was "everything is going to be alright!". It went strong for a little while, but it broke off eventually.