[SonicScrub]

As much as I would love this to happen, a high-speed rail network has been discussed along this corridor for decades at both federal and provincial governments, with no tangible actions to making it actually happen. Given the current Prime Minister is on his way out, and the party likely to follow (barring some large swing in the polls), this is unlikely to go anywhere. I'd love to be wrong though.

[lupusreal]

How is it that America and Canada are both well saturated with freight rail, but getting the right of ways and building permits for high speed rail is evidently a completely different animal? I understand that high speed rail needs different right of ways than lower speed rails, larger turns and all that, but it seems like the processes for getting shit done in one case should at least cross over to the other.

Or is it the case that all the rail we already have is from an era when we were still competent at building, and if we had to do it all over from scratch we wouldn't even be able to get freight rail done?

[voisin]

Our freight rail wasn’t built in recent history. Something about our cultural shifts in the interim has made it that no matter how desirable something is, we can’t possibly do it without spending a decade studying it. Governance by bureaucracy.

My personal suspicion is that when countries have excess, they waste it by CYA with endless bureaucracy. But when countries are hungry and striving for excess they are more practical and will literally and figuratively move mountains to make things happen.

[jamal-kumar]

Has anyone outside of China tried to tackle the kinds of long distances there are in Canada? If it costs this many billions to do it just from Toronto to Quebec City then yeah I could easily picture cutting through extant farmland across a nationas big as that one to be an incredibly expensive undertaking. Pretty sure Canada has worse problems than not having high speed rail right now in terms of money

[nonchalantsui]

Actually this very rail has been in discussion since 2016, started under VIA HFR.

You can view a timeline of it here https://altotrain.ca/en/key-milestones/

[betaby]

Actually... There is a study from 1989-1991 http://www.bv.transports.gouv.qc.ca/mono/0986299.pdf

Nothing going to be build though.

Although, yes, SNC-Lavalin (whatever realis they are called nowaday) will get the money for another study.

In fact there is currently study to study is going on.

[sleepyguy]

When I hear of infrastructure projects like this, It reminds me of that article about why we can't build anything anymore. Due to regulations, studies, and a myriad of other things, there is no chance. It will cost billions in just an environmental assessment and take a decade. Unfortunately, we don't have a system where projects like this are feasible.

[bryanlarsen]

Canada can build. The REM in Montreal was built on time and under budget.

[theluketaylor]

REM is a rare example of anglosphere building, which is ironic since it's driven by french Quebec.

REM is an extreme outlier though. Canada is filled with failed or failing transit projects that are all desperately needed:

Metrolinx is many years overdue and billions over budget on Line 5. Line 6 is also overdue, but is getting a pass since it's only bad and not horrifying. Metrolinx seems to have learned some lessons for the Ontario Line, but it's also over budget and unlikely to keep anything close to its schedule.

Calgary has spent over a decade working on the Green Line and is still a long way from putting shovels in the ground.

Vancouver keeps slipping on delivering the Broadstreet Skytrain expansion. At least Translink does seem to have reverted to the original Skytrain design pattern that has been so incredibly successful for the Expo Line expansion.

Quebec City tried for a LRT and couldn't even get the project started the cost spiralled so much and got down to a single bidder before they scrapped it and started again.

My own home of Kitchener-Waterloo managed to build an LRT and keep costs reasonable, but costs on phase 2 to Cambridge are terrifying for at-grade construction. Many euro nations have delivered full underground metros for much less per km. We've also been promised and are waiting for all day regional rail service for a decade+.

I'm a huge fan of transit, but it's hard to be optimistic.

I am glad to see CDPQ (who did REM) is part of the high speed rail proposal. They have shown a real ability to make smart value engineering choices and actually deliver projects. Is it enough to actually build some trains? I'm not sure, even if we ignore the political uncertainly surrounding the project.

[bryanlarsen]

The top comment on this post is "this is impossible". REM is proof that it isn't impossible.

Hard and unlikely? Yes. Impossible? No.

[betaby]

Neither. But let say it was COVID. Also REM is unreliable, very unreliable by modern standards.

[leshow]

As long as they remain "public-private partnerships" the goal for the private part of that relationship will be to extract as much money as possible out of the public for as long as possible.

[Neonlicht]

The Chinese are building high-speed rail line in Indonesia. So Canada shouldn't be impossible.

[throaway89]

Mark Carney as leader could do the trick, but I don't know if he has the charisma to pull it off.

[dismalaf]

When the contents of his book get more widely disseminated he's done. Right now Trump is just dominating headlines so anti-Trump sentiment is high. And even then Carney's still behind the Conservatives by a fairly wide margin.

[jszymborski]

> and the party likely to follow (barring some large swing in the polls)

Said swing is currently underway [0], and if the polling is correct, they'll swing further with Carney as LPC leader [1].

[0] https://338canada.com/federal.htm

[1] https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/article/leger-poll-carney-as...

[gedy]

Perhaps I'm misunderstanding something but your first link seems to show a solid lead by the conservative party?

[bryanlarsen]

5th graph. The Conservative lead has shrunk from 45-21 to 41-31 in the last month.

[jszymborski]

Exactly. Odds of liberals winning the most seats is >12x what it was a week ago.

[bryanlarsen]

This is perfect timing. Assuming that the Conservatives are going to win the next election, there are now two options:

- the Conservatives kill the project before significant money is spent

- the Conservatives can proceed with the project knowing that it won't be killed in 4 or 8 years if/when the Liberals go back in power. (On the off chance that the NDP forms the succeeding government, they'll have likely taken a position on the project in this election).

[boringg]

Conservatives in Ontario have been project proponents.

Also it is far from clear who will be the next election -- Federally conservatives are losing ground incredibly quickly due to their pro USA stance.

[boringg]

(barring some large swing in the polls)

You aren't watching politics right now are you? It's happening in real time. It is actually quite dramatic - the US/CDN relationship is superseding most other political issues.

[bilbo0s]

I thought this comment was bluster and looked it up.

Sigh.

Even Canadians dislike us now. How bad do you have to screw up that the Canadians dislike you? All I can say is that, (maybe?), this will only last the four years.

I'm sure conservative Canadian parties did not think Trump and Vance would go off the deep end. Neither did a whole lot of conservative Americans. But buyer's remorse won't get anyone anywhere at this point. Just have to try make the best of what you can and live with the consequences with respect to the rest.

Unfortunately for conservative Canadian parties, it's looking like that probably means absorbing some impact at the polls at this point.

[voisin]

> How bad do you have to screw up that the Canadians dislike you?

You just have to ignore a long standing positive relationship, threaten to annex the country, threaten to destroy its economy, and make a bunch of unfounded claims about fentanyl trafficking. Easy-peasy.

[boringg]

I would say that this feels like a significant rupture in the relationship completely borne out of a very disrespectful position. Trying to brow-beat population into submission typically doesn't really work that well for long-term relationships.

Even if most Canadians do recognize that the population isn't the administration it does give people pause and they certainly look to spend their money elsewhere until the people in power look to build upon relationships with their allies instead of trying to dominate them.

[dismalaf]

It'll die out and people will remember that 9 years of Liberal rule has destroyed our quality of life and we've lost ground to all our peer countries...

[boringg]

True question is how cons respond. Agree could just be a short bounce but I think cons have been considered MAGA lite so gen public eyes them suspiciously.

[dismalaf]

MAGA? It's funny how inundated Canada is with leftist propaganda. Poilievre is barely right of centre...

We had far more restrictive laws on immigration and the LGBT community in the days of the Chretien-Martin Liberal government for example...

[lupusreal]

The social policy Obama campaigned with in 2008 would get him called a fascist in 2024.

[boringg]

I'm not telling you any of my political preferences I'm pointing out how it will play out in the national campaign and how it has already roiled the polls. Canadians don't trust him to support the Canadian interests at least at the current moment - it's a big problem for him and the national conservatives.

[DiogenesKynikos]

Poilievre very consciously mimics Trump in slogans, style, etc. Just look at this picture and tell me it doesn't remind you of something: [0].

The question is whether Canadians want to elect someone who models himself after Trump at a time when Trump is threatening to end Canada's existence as a sovereign nation.

0. https://ici.radio-canada.ca/rci/en/news/2137961/poilievre-co...

[dismalaf]

It's Poilievre in front of Canadian flags... Every leader of every country stands in front of their country's flag...

I guess it would be jarring to Canadians, who have a current leader who called us a post-national state and said immigrants are more Canadian than people born in Canada...

[asacrowflies]

You really think Canadian will roll over sovereignty so easily!? I think not.

[dismalaf]

Sovereignty? There is no Canadian party that supports joining the US. If you think there is then you've really been drinking the Kool-Aid...

Edit - To add to this, read Carney's book or listen to his various speeches prior to him starting this political run... Carney doesn't believe in nations, wants to pursue a globalist future, he's been in Trudeau's ear for years and Trudeau's "post-nationalism" is very much something Carney believes in. But yeah, sure, Carney now decides he's a nationalist...

[asacrowflies]

I didn't say that. It is the USA making the threats. This is causing a huge sudden swing in polls. You seem to think this momentum will "die out" why would Canadians begin to care less about sovereignty as time goes on?

[dismalaf]

Implying sovereignty is an issue at all is implying that one party cares more about it than the other...

This is a popular leftist talking point at the moment but it's far from the truth and as more information about both parties' and leaders' beliefs is disseminated yes, the momentum will die out.

[voisin]

> Given the current Prime Minister is on his way out

It seems pretty unethical to be making a commitment like this in his current lame duck position.

[cwillu]

Hardly, this has been discussed in parliament for years already, and the crown corporation responsible for it was established in 2022. It's not like the PM just woke up one day and decided to build a train before he resigns.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alto_(high-speed_rail)#History

[voisin]

I am aware it has been discussed for years. I’ve been following it like many Canadians in the media. To my knowledge, this amount of financial commitment for only the planning stage is the first it was made known widely. If that is true, don’t you think it would deserve debate?

[Teever]

Why? That assumes that the populace and other parties are opposed to HSR.

[voisin]

I guess we won’t know what support there is if there aren’t debates about this monetary commitment. I have only followed this in the media (presumably like most Canadians) over the years and there has been discussion but the first I’ve seen this price tag only for studies is since they committed.