[jszymborski]

> and the party likely to follow (barring some large swing in the polls)

Said swing is currently underway [0], and if the polling is correct, they'll swing further with Carney as LPC leader [1].

[0] https://338canada.com/federal.htm

[1] https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/article/leger-poll-carney-as...

[gedy]

Perhaps I'm misunderstanding something but your first link seems to show a solid lead by the conservative party?

[bryanlarsen]

5th graph. The Conservative lead has shrunk from 45-21 to 41-31 in the last month.

[jszymborski]

Exactly. Odds of liberals winning the most seats is >12x what it was a week ago.