[bambax]

> Nuclear security is highly specialized, high-pressure work, but it's not particularly well paid, one employee told NPR. Given what's unfolded over the past 24 hours, "why would anybody want to take these jobs?" they asked.

The people who will be hired in those jobs in the future are the ones who can't find any other job, and don't care one way or another. It will be a catastrophe of epic proportions, but hard to notice at first because it happens so slowly. Which makes it all the more dangerous.

[fifilura]

I guess the EU should hire them, since they probably need to enhance their nuclear weapon capabilities now.

[alephnerd]

> I guess the EU should hire them

The EU doesn't have control of defense policy - that is the mandate of individual European states.

The only EU member with nuclear weapons is France, which has it's own domestic nuclear ecosystem.

More critically, public sector hiring is not the same as private sector. Working for a foreign government's NatSec apparatus would be a red flag for any sort of hiring - especially in the domestic nuclear industry in France.

[fifilura]

Although your comments are technically correct I think the bigger picture may still make this relevant.

These are not normal times and I believe USA also hired foreign nationals to top secret programs during and after WWII.

[alephnerd]

> These are not normal times and I believe USA also hired foreign nationals to top secret programs during and after WWII

The 1950s is ancient history now.

All countries have drastically ramped up background checks in NatSec and NatSec adjacent industries, and hiring foreigners (even from aligned states) can be a potential threat, as they will continue to retain family ties with their country of origin.

This same incident literally happened last week in the French nuclear industry, where a senior exec was canned because they weren't able to pass background checks due to their familial ties in Russia and past work in the Russian defense space before naturalizing as a French national.

If the US is to be viewed as a threat by EU member states (like a lot of Redditors-turned-HNers argue or imply), then it suffices to say that these states need to view Americans working in NatSec industries as potentially compromised.

[wakawaka28]

So the US is a threat because it refuses to pay disproportionate funds for the defense of Europe? I think everyone whining about it is losing their minds over nothing. We have been massively subsidizing these "friends" so that many of them can afford free healthcare. Fuck that noise.

[thecopy]

The ROI to USA that it has been the dominant military power for the last decades, combined with the cooling effect of NATO across the globe – i think you can imagine the instability and increase risk of nuclear war without NATO (Japan, South Korea, Europe, etc would acquire nukes without USA guarantees)

It has enabled a very stable and predictable world. This has benefited USA immensely. It it not clear to me, that rewinding and dismantling this system will have net positive effects in the next 50 years for USA.

[alephnerd]

> I think everyone whining about it is losing their minds over nothing

I agree. It is doable for individual European states to rebuild their conventional fighting capabilities.

France has been a proponent of this kind of "strategic autonomy" for decades, and so has the UK to a certain extent.

Most of the angst is coming from Germany, who let the Bundeswehr degrade from being one of the most capable Armed Forces in Europe in 1990 to what it is today.

[fifilura]

Note that "US as a threat" was a strawman argument.

(Although USA has threatened to occupy EU territory in the last weeks.)

It does not have to be a threat, but if Europe should take more responsibility for their own defense, it would make sense build up their nuclear capacity.

(And I am well aware of the differences between EU, Europe and individual countries. But it seems to me tha France is the country to build upon.)

Ukraine had nuclear weapons that they gave away. Maybe they shouldn't have?

Also - universal healthcare is not about 1-2 percent lower military spendings (much of which goes back to the country itself). USA is a rich country, you could also afford it.

[Denote6737]

Maybe that will change. Germany certianly has capability to manufacture nuclear armements. The UK may rejoin if the situation gets dire enough.

[alephnerd]

> Germany certianly has capability to manufacture nuclear armements

Yep, but as I mentioned below, that's not enough anymore.

Just about every major nuclear power (US, Russia, China, India, Israel) has a nuclear triad and second strike capabilities.

Just having nuclear weapons doesn't unlock that capability overnight.

[ben_w]

> Maybe that will change. Germany certianly has capability to manufacture nuclear armements. The UK may rejoin if the situation gets dire enough.

Given the politics here, I don't see that happening. No nuclear reactors, even.

I won't be too surprised if Finland gets some, but I don't really know the full politics of the area, only that they have reactors and are concerned about Russia.

Poland might, but no earlier than 2030.

In Europe but not in the EU, Ukraine… entirely depends on if they think they have nothing left to lose. If it looks like Trump will sell them out and they don't think anyone else will pick up enough slack to keep them independent of Moscow, they may rush a development program.

I can easily believe that Ukraine would try to hire any of these workers. No reason to think any of these workers would be interested, but I can see Ukraine trying.

[throw0101d]

> The only EU member with nuclear weapons is France, which has it's own domestic nuclear ecosystem.

The UK has US-derived (?) nuclear weapons, and so it would perhaps make sense for them to hire the Americans that maintained them:

* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_of_the_United_...

Given the 'waffling' of Trump on NATO support, Poland may want to develop their own.

Also South Korea and Japan may want to ramp up their own native infrastructure given the waffling of US Pacific support.

[alephnerd]

> The UK

Not in the EU.

And the same NatSec requirements hold.

> Poland may want to develop their own.

A nuclear shield is useless without second or third strike capabilities - which requires a nuclear triad - as both Russia and China have developed those capabilities due to their rivalry with the US.

Poland hypothetically building 10 nuclear devices does nothing if Russia can launch multiple strike after getting striked.

Furthermore, developing nuclear weapons is causus belli enough to justify a hot war for China or Russia, nor does it actually prevent war as can be seen with the Kargil War.

More critically, nuclear programs are expensive and that money is better used in further building out conventional military capabilities, as can be seen with the Russia-Ukraine War, where a country with an ossified MIC (Ukraine) is able to cause significant pain to a nuclear power.

Tl;dr - Nuclear weapons alone are useless in a world where most Nuclear Powers (US, Russia, China, India, Israel) have a nuclear triad and multi-strike capabilities.

> Also South Korea and Japan may

The Indo-Pac theatre is different from the European theatre, as there is bipartisan support to prioritize Asian defense over European defense.

Furthermore, in a situation where American support is reduced, Asian countries can continue to retain conventional warfighting capabilities. This is because defense spending across Asia had always been high since the early-mid 2010 standoffs, so there hasn't been the same level of angst that much of Central Europe has.

Furthermore, Korean and Japanese military exports are extremely competitive, with Indonesia, Vietnam, and Philippines all closely aligning with SK and JP on defense posture.

[mytailorisrich]

Nuclear weapons are not meant to be used. They are meant to prevent invasion attempts.

For instance, between China and its own nuke North Korea is guaranteed not to be invaded by the US.

Likewise, Israel is guaranteed that Arab countries or Iran won't try to invade it.

In fact, that's why France developed its own nukes, in addition to making sure they'll keep a seat at the "adults table".

Poland might be/have been another good example. They would only need to guarantee that St Petersburg, Moscow, and Minsk would be vaporised in case of invasion to be safe on their Eastern border.

[alephnerd]

> Poland might be/have been another good example. They would only need to guarantee that St Petersburg, Moscow, and Minsk would be vaporised in case of invasion to be safe on their Eastern border

As I mentioned above, the fear of vaporization goes away if you can continue to keep striking after being striked. If you've reached the point where you are launching nuclear strikes, you accept the massive toll that you will have to pay with a launch, and wish to enact as severe a toll as possible. To do that you need second strike and nuclear triad capabilities.

Every single one of the countries you mentioned has second strike capabilities and either has Nuclear Triad capabilities (China, US, Israel) or is working to implement them (France, North Korea).

A country like Poland or Germany is too late in the game to build second strike or nuclear triad capabilities, and even starting a nuclear weapons program would be causus belli enough in the short-to-medium term for a war while being unable to prevent a strike.

[actionfromafar]

Russia is not the USSR. In practice, Russia is Moscow and St Petersburg. Pose a credible threat to those cities and be set. Because Poland and Russia are so close geographically, plausible second strike capability can be achieved many ways without having ICBMs and nuclear strike subs.

[alephnerd]

If you're at the point where you're actively considering nuclear strikes, you are fine with accepting the MASSIVE costs that arise.

Even if Moscow or St Petersburg are completely wiped off the map, Novosibirsk, Kazan, Omsk, etc will remain while much of Poland is irradiated.

> Russia is not the USSR

It's not the USSR, but it's still a large country, and much of the defense industry has remained in Siberia since WW2.

[pjc50]

Plus some spies. It's an absolutely ideal time to turn up as a spy with a suitably right-wing Twitter account and blag your way into Federal offices.

[wakawaka28]

Sounds like the jobs probably already had people who can't find any other job and don't especially care, if you ask me. At least that makes as much sense as your argument about future hires.

[Aeolun]

I’m sure some Russian or Chinese immigrants will be only too happy to take these positions for peanuts.

Which isn’t something the he is worried about given how buddy buddy he is with their respective leaders.