[tahoeskibum]

Nissan, Honda & eventually Toyota are going to go the way of Nokia/Motorola after iPhone came out. Cheap and reliable Chinese EVs will take over the market (like Android), while Tesla will probably maintain a halo premium product like iPhone.

[mongol]

Tesla is going down the drain, at least in Europe, unless shareholders evict Musk. Nothing iPhone-like with that brand anymore.

[r00fus]

Not just Europe: CA sales are down double digits recently as well: https://www.newsweek.com/tesla-california-sales-decline-elec...

[jszymborski]

Doing poorly in the other CA (Canada) as well

https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/tesla-sales-drop-1.7421653

[spacebanana7]

Out of curiosity, do you know anyone on the political right who feels that way?

It's quite possible to win a market with 30-50% of people liking you. Any if right wing customers buy Teslas for political reasons rather than utility they could reduce quality and increase pricing do even better financially.

[Vrondi]

The fascinating thing is that the political right largely prefers ICE vehicles in the USA. This is a combination of factors, like more rural voters who need more range/work more blue collar jobs/haul firewood/etc. Combined with a personality type that is more cautious about change. And also, the insane prices for things like Teslas here. Perhaps Musk's close association with President Trump will gain him a small number of new rich fans on the political right, but most common Americans in most of the country aren't even considering a Tesla to begin with, and it's the majority of folks with lower incomes that put Trump back in office this time.

[mongol]

The political right in Europe is not the same as the political right in the US. I am myself on the right side of the political spectrum and I despise Trump and more recently Musk. You can probably still find people that don't care, but they are going to be far, far fewer than 30%. Owning a Tesla has become something people apologise for.

[creaturemachine]

Right-wing customers in an EV? Tell us another one.

[hanszarkov]

Tesla makes great products.

[margalabargala]

Tesla has great battery and motor tech. Their quality control and car interiors leave a lot to be desired.

[silon42]

The interior (and exterior) misfeatures is why wouldn't buy a Tesla... also, I'd prefer a slightly smaller car.

[user3939382]

This sounds like political venting more than a financial analysis.

[margalabargala]

The parent specified in Europe. It's a fact that in January 2025, European Tesla sales have had significant YoY declines, attributed to Musk's political activity. A greater than 50% drop in sales in France and Germany, for example.

Here are a couple sources.

https://www.ft.com/content/ea2329e4-b4bc-4e2d-be34-e9a8ea311...

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/02/05/business/tesla-germany-el...

[b112]

I cannot read the FT article, but the nyt article says sales have halved, and are now under 2k per month in Germany.

So it sounds like their sakes were tiny before this halving. And with numbers that low, one ad campaign or new model by VW could change them.

His donations to parties in Germany seems like a weird reason why. He's done all sorts of things in the past, and sales went up.

[mongol]

"Tesla’s sales plummet across Europe"

Financial Times January 2025

https://www.ft.com/content/ea2329e4-b4bc-4e2d-be34-e9a8ea311...

[llm_nerd]

I have huge doubts that Teslas will retain a "halo premium", except in some very strange circles. Already they're an embarrassing car to own and the financials of that company are rapidly flushing down the toilet, making it a question of how long it will be a going concern (hence all the frantic rushing around for legitimacy in other markets...robots, why not?)

They are widely cited as unreliable, poorly built vehicles. My neighbour bought a used model S and the first time he saw us after buying it he came over to justify his purchase ("Got a killer price, etc").

[silisili]

> Already they're an embarrassing car to own

I don't know if that's true, but I find it all pretty funny regardless.

Five or more years ago, people hated Tesla drivers, either because they represented wealth or that they were seen as progressive 'tree huggers'.

Today people seem to hate Tesla drivers because the brand is for right wing nazis.

I think both takes are misguided, and I don't know how popular those takes are, but I can't help but finding the 180 humorous.

For context, I'm not taking a side and don't have a strong opinion either way. I don't own and wouldn't own one, but for reasons with nothing to do with politics or quality.

[llm_nerd]

Did people really hate Tesla drivers? Aside from an extremely niche "rolling coal" sort, they were just a car. An innovative car that had downsides, but also had big upsides like insane torque and big screens (which were odd at the time, but pretty normal now). They were neat to tech sorts.

And notably the average loaded pickup truck -- the kind that fill every highway and road -- is more expensive than the average Tesla, so I don't think it has ever represented wealth, and the "people are jealous" thing has always been rather silly. One of the most common situations to see Teslas today are delivery vehicles and Ubers.

The honeymoon has worn off, though, and the blindness to the many design and build flaws of the vehicle, or the extremely anti-consumer behaviour of that company, has earned it a public sentiment that has declined. Now add that it is the primary wealth vehicle for one of the worst people on the planet, such that it started transitioning into pandering to let's call them bad people (the CyberJunk), and it's just a nameplate carrying a lot of negativity now.

>but I can't help but finding the 180 humorous.

The both-sidism thing is so incredibly boring. If everyone else didn't start making pretty good EVs, Tesla kept iterating and making better products with better quality and dealing with their customers better (instead of making ridiculous nonsense like their useless truck or robots or whatever else), and it wasn't associated with bankrolling a garbage huamn being, it would still be a beloved brand. But it isn't 2019 anymore.

[protocolture]

I didnt have an opinion of them until I sat in one. I hated the interior. Its very much like silicon valley trying to reinvent things that work. People compare it to an iPhone but its like sitting in the Windows 11 start menu. The entire design language of car interiors built up over decades thrown away for no reason.

Shits me too because I kinda dig the retro aesthetic of the cybertruck. Its just completely destroyed by any truck made by any other company, electric or not. And even if you can mod it to be functional as a truck, you still have to deal with that interior.

[7speter]

I took a Tesla cab (the crossover SUV). I don't see how you can describe the interior as anything remotely utilitarian (even the Windows start menu is, even if you don't like Windows); the thing was barren other than the tablet for a console in the front. I understand that might be the entry level version, but you can get a lot more car interior for the price from other makers.

[protocolture]

Yeah lots of room thats true.

[theshackleford]

> Five or more years ago, people hated Tesla drivers, either because they represented wealth or that they were seen as progressive 'tree huggers'.

I suspect this may vary by location, or be more of an "online" thing maybe. I didn't know anyone who had any particular hate for Telsa drivers.

> Today people seem to hate Tesla drivers because the brand is for right wing nazis.

Again, I don't really know anyone today in my circles who dislike Tesla drivers themselves. Could be a big bias here though because I think I likely congregate by default with the tiny minority of people who can afford to buy a Tesla in the first place (or any such car here.)

I do know Tesla owners who are significantly less enthusiastic about their purchase today than they were when they acquired it and yes, its because of Elon, but they are not about to give up the car over it. They still like the car. Equally I know owners who remain thrilled and could give less of a shit.

Nobody outside of them really thinks about them much at all positively or negatively I would say. Some of them do seem to have a tendency to assume everyone will have as much interest as they do in their car but I am sure many such cars inspire people to this kind of zealotry, like...hardware computing brands or sports teams I suppose.

The cars themselves seem ok enough to me. I can appreciate what an EV brings to making a car "fun", but its very hard for me to find any car particularly exciting or interesting to be honest so they don't really do anything to move me but as long as the people that do own them are happy what do I care? I suspect they feel much the same way about my mode of travel.

[margalabargala]

Tesla gained a reputation of being the best EVs around, by virtue of being essentially the only company making EVs able to truly replace a gas car for close to a decade. It's easy to be the best in a category with just one competitor.

Now that other companies are making EVs that compete directly with Tesla, they aren't reliably best-in-class or best-in-price-point anymore. Compare the Rivian R1T to the Cybertruck, or the Equinox EV to the Model Y, or the Ioniq 6 to the Model 3. The top of the line Model S still doesn't really have any viable competitor.

Tesla has phenomenal battery and motor tech, but their actual car design leaves a lot to be desired, and that's starting to hurt them now that they aren't the only game in town.

And the fact that their CEO throws Nazi salutes at political rallies does not help their market share. In Europe at least that's directly impacting their sales.

[KerrAvon]

Lucid has a viable Model S competitor. I haven't driven one, but they're very well-reviewed and they beat the Model S specs for range.

[margalabargala]

Interesting, it looks like they've dropped their prices a lot since the last time I checked. You're right.

[gottorf]

> their CEO throws Nazi salutes at political rallies

Come now, even the Anti-Defamation League, hardly a habitual supporter of Musk, disagrees with this take. Your opinions are your own and you're free to believe he did Nazi salutes, but it does make you sound like you have an axe to grind.

[margalabargala]

Both my grandfathers fought in Europe in WWII.

When they were alive, if I had done what Elon did in front of either of them, that would have been problematic.

I think that's a decent yardstick. The absolute best interpretation is that Elon is someone who does not care if he does things that look like Nazi salutes.

[gottorf]

> I think that's a decent yardstick

I have relatives who suffered under imperial powers who to this day refuse to buy products made in that country, even though they're objectively good and in some cases the best in the market. I hardly think the trauma of war makes for good judgment, even decades removed.

[margalabargala]

Let's say you convinced your relatives to stop boycotting those products. Then, the CEO of a company behind one of those products, appeared at a political rally in the ex-imperial country, wearing the symbols and colors of thebold imperial regime, and waving a flag showing the old imperial borders.

I think your relatives would be quite justified in boycotting that one product.

You can make your purchasing decisions however you like. Other's don't. Ignoring war trauma makes someone a shit businessperson, at best.

[ImJamal]

Tim Walz hit his chest and then throw up a Nazi salute during the campaign. Where was the outrage? Where was the 24/7 news coverage?

[LunaSea]

Well one of these two people spoke at the German far rights neo-nazi party (AFD) rally not long ago.

[ImJamal]

If AfD is a neo-nazi party then why is their leader a lesbian married to a woman of a different race? Seems like these Nazis aren't being very Nazi like in their leaders.

[solatic]

Honda is bigger than just automobiles, they also hold the lion's share of the two-wheeler market (motorcycles, scooters). They're a far way from dead.

[jgon]

So your prediction is that chinese EVs manage to take over and destroy the Japanese car market, but the American auto market somehow gets a pass and Tesla wins? Why would Tesla be any more able to withstand cars that cost like 1/2 for similar quality, and why wouldn't that same calculus apply to their "halo" products? Are the Chinese fundamentally incapable of building a luxury EV? And if Tesla somehow sees that an EV halo product is their only chance for survival, why wouldn't current halo manufacturers like BMW and Mercedes and Lexus also try for that market, and why are they sure to fail while Tesla succeeds?

And maybe your response to all of the above is that Tesla will not be allowed to fail as part of an industrial strategy on the part of America, in which case the question is why would the other domestic manufacturers like Ford and GM be allowed to fall by the wayside? And further, why would Japan not also embark on a similar strategy and prop up their domestic manufacturers?

Any way you look at it, a prediction that China wins out everywhere except for plucky old Tesla moving into the "Apple" position seems like some sort of bizarre partisanship/home team support that doesn't stand up to a moment of scrutiny.

[lmm]

> Why would Tesla be any more able to withstand cars that cost like 1/2 for similar quality, and why wouldn't that same calculus apply to their "halo" products?

It works for Apple. When you're premium you can charge 2x as much, because your market isn't as price-conscious.

> why wouldn't current halo manufacturers like BMW and Mercedes and Lexus also try for that market, and why are they sure to fail while Tesla succeeds?

They will. They're not. But Tesla has a fighting chance, in a way that companies trying to compete with China in the commodity EV market don't.

[holtkam2]

Honest question: are there people who know about Lucid and don’t consider them nicer cars than Teslas?

Tesla doesn’t make a car as nice as the Air Sapphire… I don’t think they could if they wanted to. So they’re forced to stay in the less expensive / less quality market segment

[eftpotrm]

All Tesla's global sales cars are due for replacement, and none are in the offing. Tesla are circling the drain, fast, and are very unlikely to be around in their current form in 5-10 years time - the replacement product they'd need to survive takes too long to develop and should have already started, but hasn't. Best case for them IMHO is that someone spots a key asset they own (IMHO most likely the supercharger network) and buys them for that, but the stock price is currently wildly overinflated which prevents it. One day, that bubble will burst.

TBH if I were on Tesla's board I'd be pushing for a stock-funded takeover of a company that has an actual plan and ability to deliver it. Merge with (say) Stellantis and they'd have a survival plan.

[odiroot]

Honda will be fine. They own the motorcycle market, especially in Asia.

[junaru]

Noone is excited about hondas, its all about Chinese bikes - cfmotos, koves, etc.