[peutetre]

That would make the answer "no". Putin's Russia will end with Putin because it has the same problem that all autocratic regimes have: succession.

After Putin, the oligarchs will scrabble about trying to get the most of what's left. If it gets really bad Russia will descend into civil war. Russia just recently had a mini-civil war with Prigozhin's rebellion.

If Russia ends up in civil war then China will invade Siberia under the guise of peace keeping to secure the resources it currently depends on from Russia.

China will cut deals with whichever oligarchs win out and part of the deal will be that China takes territory that they see as historically Chinese (such as Outer Manchuria).

[bobthepanda]

China is unlikely to invade a failing state simply because it already has enough on its plate without trying to build some other nation too. We know this because to a large extent this is already what’s happening with Myanmar where rebels have seized control of border towns with China without so much as a peep.

[peutetre]

Precisely this situation is unfolding in Myanmar right now. The junta is so weakened that they have no choice but to turn to China. Chinese troops will be in Myanmar soon to protect Chinese infrastructure investment:

https://www.rfa.org/english/opinions/2024/11/23/opinion-myan...

https://theconversation.com/chinese-security-companies-are-p...

https://www.voanews.com/a/china-backed-election-raises-fears...

If Russia decides to have a civil war, China will do the same in Russia.

[bobthepanda]

The first article hardly has any sourcing and the second one is primarily quoting the first.

[peutetre]

Myanmar is precisely the example. You could not have picked a better example to make my case.

[The_Colonel]

There might be a power struggle, but a civil war? Nope. For that, you'd need (at least two) roughly equally matched adversaries controlling the armed forces. You don't see anything like that and such division doesn't spring up out of nothing.

China will also not invade Siberia, it's much easier to control it economically than turning your quasi-ally into a mortal enemy. (besides, nukes)

[tomas_nort]

Another power center with strong military relatively uninvolved in Ukraine and with growing interest in taking controll is Chechnya.

[peutetre]

> For that, you'd need (at least two) roughly equally matched adversaries controlling the armed forces.

Or you have a military weakened and degraded by a pointless war of choice in Ukraine.

And you have many armies controlled by oligarchs and warlords looking after their own interests (like Prigozhin).

And you have many separatist movements, such has for example a movement for Siberian independence.

And you have a power vacuum after the head of a mafia-style state is deposed or dies.

After Putin all bets are off.

Exactly this is happening in Myanmar right now: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=42572620