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by ggm 1022 days ago
Can you name a G20 nation which isn't modelling this, and about 100 other flashpoints? Isn't this what defence department risk analysis people do for a living?

Here's my hot take: China won't want to fight India with steel shovels and rakes up in their border disputed region because no sane economy wants to fight a war on two fronts. So India may gain 20 to 25m in that border dispute for a decade or so.
1 comments
mytailorisrich 1022 days ago
If the mainland invaded Taiwan India would stay out of it.

They have an interest in weakening China so they might follow any sanctions better than they follow those against Russia but that's about it.

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RetroTechie 1022 days ago
Imho: unlikely while the Russia-Ukraine war is ongoing.

Why? Both China and Russia are good at playing the long game. So China will probably want to see what Russia gets out of its war (if anything), before deciding whether invading Taiwan is worth it. Or determine how to go about it.

Hopefully Taiwan keeps up (and up-to-date) its defenses enough that any invasion by China would be more costly to agressor than any possible gains.

Promises of (military) support for Taiwan by 3rd nations do help here. Yes if shtf things may escalate much further. But it also makes invading Taiwan a much riskier proposition, potentially much more costly than if 3rd nations leave Taiwan to defend itself without help.

I'm counting on China to not be stupid enough to take such risk.

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ggm 1022 days ago
The other side of this modelling is that the PLA is trying very hard to look bellicose because it has to, but it's telling its masters how hard a defended landing in rough seas is, and how UAV and drones have changed the shape of war, and reminding their bosses that with 20%+ youth unemployment and the property boom crashing the government is in the pits for popularity right now, so once bodybags start coming home it's a bad year for everyone.

The Taiwanese will be hurt bad, but there is no way the PLA is simply waltzing up the beaches. It will be a contested landing, there will be massive losses, of ships, of materiel, and of citizens. Ukraine is telling them to think very hard about what they really want.

It's more likely the KMT regain power and there's a soft rapprochement. At least one candidate has said as much.

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