[ggm]

The other side of this modelling is that the PLA is trying very hard to look bellicose because it has to, but it's telling its masters how hard a defended landing in rough seas is, and how UAV and drones have changed the shape of war, and reminding their bosses that with 20%+ youth unemployment and the property boom crashing the government is in the pits for popularity right now, so once bodybags start coming home it's a bad year for everyone.

The Taiwanese will be hurt bad, but there is no way the PLA is simply waltzing up the beaches. It will be a contested landing, there will be massive losses, of ships, of materiel, and of citizens. Ukraine is telling them to think very hard about what they really want.

It's more likely the KMT regain power and there's a soft rapprochement. At least one candidate has said as much.