[RetroTechie]

Imho: unlikely while the Russia-Ukraine war is ongoing.

Why? Both China and Russia are good at playing the long game. So China will probably want to see what Russia gets out of its war (if anything), before deciding whether invading Taiwan is worth it. Or determine how to go about it.

Hopefully Taiwan keeps up (and up-to-date) its defenses enough that any invasion by China would be more costly to agressor than any possible gains.

Promises of (military) support for Taiwan by 3rd nations do help here. Yes if shtf things may escalate much further. But it also makes invading Taiwan a much riskier proposition, potentially much more costly than if 3rd nations leave Taiwan to defend itself without help.

I'm counting on China to not be stupid enough to take such risk.