[jseip]

"It's not that extraordinary."

How is that possibly true? LK-99 is already amongst the highest-temperature superconductors ever found (with that claim substantiated by at least two independent research teams as of this moment).

[whimsicalism]

I don't know if you work in this field, but you are putting way too much faith in what has been reported so far

People are way, way overconfident. Most people in the field would not be willing to put it at >50% odds at this point.

[eric_cc]

> Most people in the field would not be willing to put it at >50% odds at this point.

Do you have a source for this claim? It sounds like you just made it up.

[scarmig]

There's not going to be a poll on it or anything.

But, for what it's worth, as both an LK-99 optimist and as someone who has worked in the field and who still talks to people in it, most people in it seem to put the chances well below 50%.

[whimsicalism]

Of course not, there hasn’t been some survey of materials scientists on LK-99. This is my impression given my familiarity with the field

[marcosdumay]

If you push it, all the diamagnetism videos people published about reproducing it could be created by some weird and unlikely distribution of ferromagnetism on the sample. Except for the one that nobody knows where it comes from, that could easily be a fabrication.

That leaves the original, that is clearly diamagnetism, but still could be misleading in many ways.

We don't know how many labs are working on replicating this. So we have no idea how unlikely mistakes we should expect to see.