[whimsicalism]

I don't know if you work in this field, but you are putting way too much faith in what has been reported so far

People are way, way overconfident. Most people in the field would not be willing to put it at >50% odds at this point.

[eric_cc]

> Most people in the field would not be willing to put it at >50% odds at this point.

Do you have a source for this claim? It sounds like you just made it up.

[scarmig]

There's not going to be a poll on it or anything.

But, for what it's worth, as both an LK-99 optimist and as someone who has worked in the field and who still talks to people in it, most people in it seem to put the chances well below 50%.

[whimsicalism]

Of course not, there hasn’t been some survey of materials scientists on LK-99. This is my impression given my familiarity with the field