[eric_cc]

> Most people in the field would not be willing to put it at >50% odds at this point.

Do you have a source for this claim? It sounds like you just made it up.

[scarmig]

There's not going to be a poll on it or anything.

But, for what it's worth, as both an LK-99 optimist and as someone who has worked in the field and who still talks to people in it, most people in it seem to put the chances well below 50%.

[whimsicalism]

Of course not, there hasn’t been some survey of materials scientists on LK-99. This is my impression given my familiarity with the field