There has been about 69 per cent decline in the wildlife population of mammals, birds, reptiles, amphibians, fish across the globe in the last 50 years. The highest decline, 94 per cent was in Latin America and Caribbean region. According to WWF report, Africa recorded 66 percent fall in wildlife population, the Asia Pacific 55 percent and population of freshwater species reduced by 83 percent globally.
The Sixth Mass Extinction: fact, fiction or speculation?
"Estimate that, since around AD 1500, possibly as many as 7.5–13% (150,000–260,000) of all ~2 million known species have already gone extinct, orders of magnitude greater than the 882 (0.04%) on the Red List."
We had a ~10C increase in temperature from 20000 YA - 13000 YA or so and then a yoyo jump back down ca. 6C and up again in a 1000 years, during the younger dryas.
While the 19th-21th century increase of 1-1.2C or so is a bit faster, it's not a magnitude faster.
Humans have definitely changed nature everywhere, and is probably responsible for many species dying. But blaming that on the climate change doesn't really make sense. Deforestation is much more likely to be the cause.
We are witnessing the sixth mass extinction event. Defined as the loss of 75% of species, this process typically spans around 2.8 million years. However, we're on track to reach this milestone in just about 100 years.
The abstract question of whether a higher or lower temperature would result in more habitable land (assuming, say, a gradual change over a million years) is completely 100% irrelevant to the issue of climate change.
A fast enough change will:
- Make places where large numbers of people currently live uninhabitable due to temperature and sea levels
- Kill off most plants and animals because the ones in a given place won't be adapted to the new climate, even if theoretically the climate in other places would now be suited to them, in a way that will take millions of years to recover from.
Simply saying "warmer is better" is utterly missing the point.
Several nation-states will be huge beneficiaries of a hotter world.
Russia's tundra becomes arable land, and their fossil fuels become more accessible. Their navy will be able to freely roam the seas when the polar ice caps melt.
Canada will receive the same benefits - enormous access to fresh water, ease of navigation, and agriculturally ideal conditions.
Greenland will have an increasingly large stake in geopolitics, trade, and energy.
China will be less existentially concerned about a blockade of the Strait of Malacca.
The Canadian Shield[1] is hard rock with a very thin layer of dirt. There's nothing remotely "agriculturally ideal" going on here. South and west of the Shield are peatlands[2] -- those are dessicating and deflagrating. As hot winds continue to blow across increasingly treeless land, thin topsoils will be stripped from the land. Saskatchewan is already facing a collapse due to farm practices, and a second "dust bowl" seems nigh inevitable. Do not look to Canada, we cannot feed billions in the decades to come.
Obviously, but you missed the point. The problem is competetion by increased polarity between the haves and have-nots. The latter aren't just going to roll over and die. They're going to go to war to survive because there's nothing to lose in not doing so and everything to gain.
> The latter aren't just going to roll over and die. They're going to go to war to survive because there's nothing to lose in not doing so and everything to gain.
And they'll lose.
If you look at the distribution of power, it's not predicted to change all that much. The superpowers are enormously capable of maintaining their grip.
The complaints of poor nations will be met with meager welfare packages and mostly tuned out by the working class of weather nations. It's how the world already operates.
I figured you would say that but your hubris is entirely unwarranted. The Taliban just handed the most powerful military on the planet their ass. They beat the USSR too. The Veitcong did it before them. Look at how badly the barefoot Houthis beat the shit out of KSA even with direct US support. Look at Russia being sent packing. Don't gamble on these things. It's foolish to expose yourself to those kinds of risks if you don't need to.
I'm not sure this is a good stick to measure. The American voting public didn't have an appetite for those fights.
Put the American economy at risk and you get the Gulf War. Attack America directly and you get the Pacific theater.
In any case, none of those particular points matter. No poor country is going to be able to resource starve the wealthiest nations. If they try to invade or block trade, they'll find out the limits of their power.
And a lot less population density. People in low-lying areas aren't going to be able to move to higher ground, because someone else already owns that ground.
There's a key difference; territorial animals are owner-occupiers. If a bear loses a territorial fight, it dies or moves. It doesn't call in the forest police. Also, bears want to keep other bears out. They don't much care about smaller animals, or try to restructure the entire landscape in the name of bear commerce.