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by bryanlarsen 1056 days ago
It's the rate of change which matters, much less so than the magnitude of the change.
1 comments

This. The time for nature and us humans to adapt to these new circumstances is vastly shorter than in any earlier age of the planet.

edit: bryanlarsen pointed out that there was an even more extreme event in earth's history.

That's not quite true. 252 million years ago we also had a very quick 8 degree Celsius rise in global temperature.

It kicked off the largest mass extinction event. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Permian%E2%80%93Triassic_extin...

We're about to outpace that.

"very quick" = 60 ± 48 thousand years, we're aiming for 100 years or so

> It kicked off the largest mass extinction event

Yet. Let's wait few decades.

> It is also the largest known mass extinction of insects.

We're already 75-80% down.

https://www.businessinsider.com/germany-insect-population-fl...

https://www.worldwildlife.org/pages/living-planet-report-202...

https://wwflpr.awsassets.panda.org/downloads/lpr_2022_full_r...

There has been about 69 per cent decline in the wildlife population of mammals, birds, reptiles, amphibians, fish across the globe in the last 50 years. The highest decline, 94 per cent was in Latin America and Caribbean region. According to WWF report, Africa recorded 66 percent fall in wildlife population, the Asia Pacific 55 percent and population of freshwater species reduced by 83 percent globally.

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/brv.12816

The Sixth Mass Extinction: fact, fiction or speculation?

"Estimate that, since around AD 1500, possibly as many as 7.5–13% (150,000–260,000) of all ~2 million known species have already gone extinct, orders of magnitude greater than the 882 (0.04%) on the Red List."

https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/22287498/meat-wildlife-bi...

The way we eat could lead to habitat loss for 17,000 species by 2050

https://www.unep.org/news-and-stories/press-release/our-glob...

Our global food system is the primary driver of biodiversity loss

We had a ~10C increase in temperature from 20000 YA - 13000 YA or so and then a yoyo jump back down ca. 6C and up again in a 1000 years, during the younger dryas.

While the 19th-21th century increase of 1-1.2C or so is a bit faster, it's not a magnitude faster.

Humans have definitely changed nature everywhere, and is probably responsible for many species dying. But blaming that on the climate change doesn't really make sense. Deforestation is much more likely to be the cause.

I'm not blaming it on the climate change. I'm blaming overshoot.

Mainly our agriculture (deforestation, biodiversity loss, pollution), misuse of fossil fuels and the structures of our societal and financial systems.

But deforestation and the following biodiversity loss is a completely different problem than reducing CO2. And in general, very few things that will reduce CO2 is going to help against deforestation (and contrary to popular opinion, even large scale reforestation will probably not affect CO2 very much either).
I don’t think that a mass extinction event is what people usually mean when they talk about nature adapting to the increase in temperature.
We are witnessing the sixth mass extinction event. Defined as the loss of 75% of species, this process typically spans around 2.8 million years. However, we're on track to reach this milestone in just about 100 years.

https://www.worldwildlife.org/stories/what-is-the-sixth-mass...

You climate guys crack me up.

15 thousand years ago Canada was under 3 kilometers of ice. Now it is home to 40 million people and covered in wildlife.

The human population went from 2 million to 8 billion during this warming period.

All the evidence points to a warmer planet supporting more life, not less.

The abstract question of whether a higher or lower temperature would result in more habitable land (assuming, say, a gradual change over a million years) is completely 100% irrelevant to the issue of climate change.

A fast enough change will:

- Make places where large numbers of people currently live uninhabitable due to temperature and sea levels

- Kill off most plants and animals because the ones in a given place won't be adapted to the new climate, even if theoretically the climate in other places would now be suited to them, in a way that will take millions of years to recover from.

Simply saying "warmer is better" is utterly missing the point.

There has been a 15000 thousand year trend, where a warming planet has resulted in more biodiversity on earth.

Where is the evidence that the trend is ending?

The rate matters.

An airliner lands on a runway and smoothly decelerates from 150 MPH to zero over 10,000 feet. This is just fine.

An airliner does the same deceleration over 10 feet. Everyone on board dies in a huge fireball.

Even for neutral or beneficial changes, the rate matters.

> covered in wildlife

You mean wildfire? Bad autocorrect. /s

Now do Sudan
Sudan:

current population 50.000.000 population in 1950: 6 191 000

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Sudan

I'd say they've been thriving.

The comparison I replied to was over a 15000 year interval. Please do not muddy the waters like this, it's rude.
Well, if the earths population was 2 million, 15000 years ago and Sudan's today is 50 million, I think it's quite clear that Sudan's population has gone up quite a bit also over 15000 years.