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Ask HN: Is Satya Nadella the best tech CEO of last decade?
67 points by oikawa_tooru 1143 days ago
He turned around an almost dying windows to become this Kraken that has the majority dev environment in its chokehold. That's impressive Other candidates in my list are Frank Slootman of Snowflake and Tim Cook of Apple for how he has not dropped the ball from Steve Jobs. What are yours?
26 comments

You say that Windows is a Kraken, but it's been on a downward slide in my mind. I don't think Nadella gets enough flak for what is happening to Windows and Microsoft's attitude towards respecting users / privacy in general.

Some examples that I've seen posted to HN over the past few months

* Microsoft Edge leaks browser history to Bing - https://www.theverge.com/2023/4/25/23697532/microsoft-edge-b...

* More ads in Windows 11 start menu - https://www.theregister.com/2023/04/17/microsoft_windows_sta...

* Absolute junk shoved into the Windows UI - https://thomasbandt.com/the-day-windows-died? https://birchtree.me/blog/the-windows-11-trash-party/ https://www.tomshardware.com/news/windows-keeps-feeding-tabl...

Windows is in a boiling frog situation. It's been slowly accumulating dark patterns and anti-features like mandatory online-only accounts, while at the same time losing quality of life features like the ability to move your taskbar or to not combine apps in the taskbar.

I should be using Windows today. I grew up on Windows, I learned to program on Windows, I had a very difficult and bumpy transition in getting off of Windows. But I had to leave their ecosystem because they have absolutely no respect for the user, and at this point I do not trust them. I want to reiterate that these are recent things, I'm not mad at them for what they did in the 90's here.

They aren't treating Windows as a serious tool for getting shit done, they're treating it as a data-mine and advertising opportunity.

I think that given the declining share of profit coming from windows, it wouldn’t be surprising for me if it just gets worse.
At this point, I'm wondering how they can make it worse.
Pretty sure Windows is on the path to no longer being interesting and necessary for Microsoft. Either they come up with a brand new iteration, or everything will go to the web.
What are people going to run on their computers?
In that scenario, as with Android dominating on smartphones, probably Linux. But desktop Linux isn't yet equivocal, and IMO, likely never will be.
Personal computers are on their (slow) way out. Phones provide good enough connectivity and communications for a lot of people. If you can only afford one, most people would choose a phone rather than a computer.

Business computers are still needed for office workers, for now.

Well it's not going to happen overnight, but my guess is a slimmed down OS that runs a powerful web-browser.
MacOS and ChromeOS.
I‘m not sure if Microsoft ever cared about user privacy, being a major player in mass surveillance and data processing for the US government. Instead of selling out our data to a nation state, they are now engaging in surveillance capitalism, too.

If you care about privacy, there is only one option, and that’s Desktop Linux, albeit less than ideal in many use cases.

I don't know how much of the MS turnaround can be attributed to him, but if we take it at face value that the CEO is responsible for everything, then MS definitely has had a dramatic positive run following Nadella taking the reigns from Ballmer.

MS still lacks a industry leading 21st century consumer device and Nadella has not been able to change that but his bets on cloud computing, embracing of Linux and open source and the rise of VSCode are something to behold.

As an "older-school" dev, I am constantly amazed that I can open a linux prompt on windows or do VSCode work with a local gui on a remote computer or inside a docker container.

> I am constantly amazed that I can open a linux prompt on windows

Similarly, I'm amazed that I can build truly cross-platform .NET apps using Microsoft's own open-source tools from the Linux command line. (Apparently .NET Core, which both adopted the MIT license, and ushered in true cross-platform support, was announced later in the year that Nadella took over. [1] Not sure whether he had anything to do with it.)

What an about-face from 2000-era Microsoft's embrace-extend-extinguish approach. Remember Visual J++? If you'd told me then I'd be willingly programming on a Microsoft toolchain 20 years later I would not have believed you.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/.NET#History

You might think it's an about-face.

I suggest that it's actually just a better executed embrace.

WSL is amazing. I switched from Macs to thinkpads at my office and having the bells and whistles of windows MS office (lets admin macos office stinks) and vscode that opens and literally runs on Linux is amazing. No IT hassles about developers running Linux with support and VPNs and stuff. Just buy some more RAM and ship developers windows laptops has been great for the org and honestly the developers. We deploy and run on Linux and the weird quirks of macos has bit us in the past.
Apparently the Year of Linux on the Desktop has happened without anybody noticing or giving a point.
Someone wished for Linux to be a successful desktop OS on a monkey's paw.
Exactly. The best Linux Desktop distro is Windows.
Debatable as user requirements vary drastically. What might be perfect for one user might be wholly inappropriate for another.
> MS still lacks a industry leading 21st century consumer device

The XBox division doesn't count?

I don't know any numbers but I would guess that Xbox is not close to being the market leader. Sony has that wrapped. Xbox is probably closer to Nintendo. They do, however, have a competitive platform which is important. Something they could never do with Windows Phone.
> Sony has that wrapped

Nintendo sold 4 Switches for every PS5 on the market.

Given the price stability and the hardware specs, probably also a higher profit per device.
Successful but not perhaps not dominant.

That said, they have more market share vs Playstation than iOS has over Android.

Video game consoles are technically 20th century invention. Xbox is just a continuation of that legacy even if the brand started in 21st

Xbox also isn’t top dog among the big 3. They’ve really struggled to ship big exclusive system sellers (which is a bummer. I’m a big fan of a lot of Xbox IP), so they certainly aren’t “industry leading”. Doesn’t mean the exclusives they’ve shipped aren’t good. They certainly are, just that their is no Xbox answer to God of War or Last of Us

GamePass is one of the biggest success stories to come out of Xbox and is certainly the dominant game streaming service

It's hillarious how the public perception differs from reality on console sales.

Mario has everyone else smoked[1].

[1] A bit out of date but see https://www.statista.com/chart/26122/estimated-lifetime-sale... where in 2021 nintendo were selling more switches in Japan only (their 3rd biggest market) than the worldwide sales of both Xbox and PS5 combined.

> MS still lacks a industry leading 21st century consumer device

Is this a prerequisite to being a great technology company today? Or is this just one vector that some competitors choose to compete on? For example, would we say Apple isn’t a great technology company because it doesn’t have an industry leasing office suite like MS and Google?

Balmer said it best, 'Developers, developers, developers!'

And then Microsoft bought Github.

I feel like Google would have been a better fit for Github. But then it would be about due for cancellation about now...
Google would have killed GitHub as it doesn’t earn money. Google isn’t about developers, it’s about getting data and selling ads.

Microsoft needs people to build things on windows, on azure, on their APIs, etc.

Google literally had the GitHub competitor, Google Code, and GitHub was only formed because google neglected Code. Remember how Google would only support mercurial over git?

And of course, Google shut down Code a few years ago.

I have to remind myself while Google hires lots of programmers and does lots of programming, they don’t really need anyone else to program.

Microsoft needs developers.

Ballmer may have screamed “Developers, developers, developers”, but what he actually meant was “Windows, Office, developers”.

Windows and Office came before everything. The big change Nadella brought to the table was completely eliminating Windows as a primary goal for the company, and reducing Office’s importance as well.

You tell 'em, Steve...sweat-stained shirt and all...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XxbJw8PrIkc

Best yet is VSCode into a docker container on a remote host. Feels like magic!
Emacs has been able to edit files transparently on remote hosts for longer than vscode has existed
While I agree with this technically and I have used vi(m) for years, there is something experientially quite different about being able to use a local gui with all the mouse support and ease of use of VSCode or Sublime compared to the chording of more traditional terminal editors.

I'm not knocking Emacs or Vim, they are powerful tools but to be able to show a typical first year student how to edit their code remotely using SSH/Container support in VSCode is comparatively dead simple. All the students I work with now use this strategy, much in the same way they prefer to use jupyter and pandas when they can.

Emacs had a GUI mode with mouse support since the 80s.
Yes. Now are you going to respond to the parent's actual content? Seamless remote editing with Emacs GUI is not a thing.
and FreeBSD Jails were a thing 15 years before Docker came and made things affordable for the masses.

and Olympic champion can jump for 5 meters, but bridges over creeks is nothing uncommon for masses.

and Emacs has been able to edit files transparently on remote hosts ...

Probably Emacs can learn [if they care to be dominating on the market] on technical possibility vs being simple and handy.

=====

And if we take VSCode Tunnel, things become even brighter for VScode for remote editing.

Remote editing on Emacs isn't a mere "technical possiblity." It's available out of the box, is no harder than working with local files, and crucially, doesn't require you to install anything on the remote host unlike VSCode.

Furthermore, Emacs still has the best tooling for remote development. They're worth using even if you use other software for text editing, like I do. Dired, the file viewer, makes working with both local and remote files easy and seamless. Org mode, which can be used like Jupyter notebooks, can run code blocks remotely using any language, and can even pass data between them.

It's nice if software professionals were more open towards software that they're unfamiliar with. Software can be useful even if it takes some effort to learn. Not every feature of some software is worthless just because it isn't a clone of a more popular alternative.

I have not found an answer on does it support dealing with containers on remote side, let's assume it does and pass this part.

One day I was not familiar with VSCode and I became familiar and many others as well. Just not Emacs. Assuming you are right and technically Emacs has all bells and whistles, it must be something else that not promoting it for being wide used.

And you skipped the part about VScode tunnels all along.

are you talking about tramp?
Well then, it must be really bad if with all those features and many years it did not manage to gain so many users.

Bad replies, to bad replies

>> MS still lacks a industry leading 21st century consumer device

Oh but they have brought 21st century advertising and bullshit to windows devices!

Just having Ballmer out had a positive effect. He wasn't a visionary, and Microsoft stagnated during his lead. It was like keeping only the bad side of Bill Gates.
> As an "older-school" dev

I assume this means "older-school Windows dev", as none of that is new in the UNIX world.

No I cut my teeth on Sun workstations.
The Network is the Computer!
:-)
Microsoft completely lost mobile. Like not just a few goofy phones like Kin, they just straight up have no relevance or marketshare or anything in what is clearly the future platform for all computing.

A lot of this damage was done under Balmer, but IMHO Nadella has a lot of blame too. Microsoft has gone from domination of computing platforms and making money on every single device sale to competing for scraps in someone else's app store (making that someone else money!) as they sell office apps and such ported to platforms they don't control anymore.

I think there isn't more outrage or unrest about this failure from Microsoft shareholders since Azure and other service growth has kept dollars flowing in and the share price up. But Microsoft is nowhere near their 90s peak of total control over consumer computing.

> Microsoft completely lost mobile. Like not just a few goofy phones like Kin, they just straight up have no relevance or marketshare or anything in what is clearly the future platform for all computing.

Lost on mobile hardware and OS but their software (office, outlook, OneDrive) is extremely popular on mobile, no?

other companies care about owning the platforms, if they own the platforms they get to squeeze everyone who uses them. Much like everyone wants to be a payment provider because taking a cut on every payment is very, very lucrative

Microsoft gave up on trying to create new platforms, the main reasons in my opinion are:

1) Regulations are going to come down hard on platforms

2) User-happiness and developer happiness is reduced if you squeeze, eventually bringing down the platform

3) Dependence, if your platform starts to fail you can't pivot because your business is just completely reliant on owning the platform. You can see how google owning AdSense is screwing them over now

4) Dutch disease https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dutch_disease

Microsoft seems to have figured out that owning a platform is not a long-term recipe for success. If anything it is like being an oil-rich country, eventually the only thing you can do is exporting oil. Probably because they went through it with Windows and Office

So the definition of success depends on what you think success is, Microsoft just changed what success means for big tech companies, providing an alternative route. We will see if they can stick with it or if they will try to build platform-moats again (it is very tempting to do so when you find one)

The more popular those apps the more money Microsoft is paying Apple and Google to sell the apps in their stores. Nothing is stopping Apple or Google from shaking MS down for more dollars by bumping up app store profit sharing splits. I have to imagine being forced to play by someone else's rules and live in their ecosystem would have completely enraged 90's era Microsoft led by Bill Gates--he would have moved heaven and earth to own the platform and all the dollars consumers spend.
> Nothing is stopping Apple or Google from shaking MS down for more dollars by bumping up app store profit sharing splits

The government is stopping this kind of thing, anti trust, monopolies and all that. It is only getting worse for these platform owners

Lol no, the government doesn't care or set any restrictions on the profit split Apple/Google sets for people selling products in their store. Monolopy and anti-trust concerns buying companies and marketshare, not being a better product and consumers willingly switching to your product. It would actually be the death of capitalism for the government to go to Apple/Google and say, "woah woah woah hold on, this is _too popular_ we need to put the brakes on your profits". That kind of stuff only happened in centrally planned economies like the USSR.
maybe look up the railroad and oil monopolies history in the US
How much does Microsoft pay Apple for Outlook on iOS? This is a half serious question because I dont' pay for it out of the app store, so Apple is not getting a share there. Does Microsoft pay anything other than a developer license?

Parent comment is still valid. Microsoft dominates enterprise office tools across all platforms, including mobile.

30% cut of people that subscribe to office 365 through the app (which Apple requires be an option, MS can't force you to go to their site to subscribe or Apple kicks them off the store, see the epic vs apple lawsuit: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Epic_Games_v._Apple )
Is it possible to subscribe to office 365 directly from mobile? Legit question, I’ve never tried.
Subscriptions are 15% after the first year.
Microsoft wants $100/year for Office for every mobile user.

So they’ll likely make more money off mobile than Google will.

Although they don’t build any phones or mobile OSes, they are making a ton of money off mobile (without paying the App Store percentages to Apple or Google).

> what is clearly the future platform for all computing

Dude. There are gonna still be servers, network infra, etc.

They also have control of a swath of the gaming sector and that is one of the biggest and fastest growing industries in the world. You are totally right I just think that should be considered.
There are many ways of defining "best." There's not only "best" in terms of the bottom line, but also "best" in terms of their stewardship of the product line and customer satisfaction. Personally I am very fond of Lisa Su's leadership of AMD. AMD's offerings have become very compelling under her tenure; I love my Ryzen 3900 machine. She would make a strong contender for best tech CEO of the 2010s, in my opinion. Another strong contender would be Jensen Huang of NVIDIA.
Tim Cook quintupled the value of Apple and passed on a lot of the fads that other tech companies fell victim to.
Value for who? No innovation, just hoarding massive profits. Quintupled stock price for shareholders.
I can't live without my airpods. There aren't many things that I would buy immediately if they were destroyed. Airpods alone are a multibillion dollar company. So i'd say that's innovation.
To many, that's probably the foremost goal of a CEO, no?
Many? To the shareholders it is. But as a consumer I prefer innovation and not money hoarding. Shareholders think otherwise.
The Apple Silicon chips are a massive innovation which have just massively changed the laptop landscape. People are buying new MacBooks left and right because they can do all their work on a tiny laptop now which doesn't run hot and has a battery like an iPad.
>The Apple Silicon chips are a massive innovation

I have seen this repeated again and again. As if Apple Silicon was made for the Mac.

Apple Silicon came from iPhone and iOS. Using the same Ax SoC on MacBook just happened because they became fast enough.

As much as I am impressed by Apple Silicon, I haven't seen the buying habits of people I know change.

Windows laptop owners still continue to buy windows laptops.

> Value for who? No innovation

Apple silicon?

I urge you to research how much cash and investments Apple currently holds. Last year it was around 200B.

Yes, Apple Silicon is innovation. But is a drop in the bucket. A sense of scale is very important.

He snatched failure from the jaws of success by ruining the cool. Accomplished fragile machines that routinely breakdown, are difficult to repair, and then have the gaul to demand piles of coin from users of said new systems under supposed warranty periods. He has no vision and continues to ride SJ's legacy without innovating. He should step down.
Apple was on a winning streak when Tim Cook took over, so it does not look that impressive. But it is hard to imagine how he could have done a better job. Maybe Apple could have created a better browser :)
Good CEOs don't screw up the current business. Great CEOs make big bets that work out. Tim Cook is clearly in the "good CEO" category.
false. Great CEOs maximize returns for the shareholders. this is inclusive of big bets.
False, great CEOs maximize NPV, not returns.
returns in this context would be inclusive of NPV
The need of Apple fanboys to always have to plug in.
Didn’t he oversee turning windows into spyware?

In my mind, he’s the worst ceo of the last decade

Turning Windows into spyware is working out very financially for MS, so doing so makes him an excellent CEO. Your personal feelings about the company's products are irrelevant; only their financial performance is important.

If you don't like the product, you're free to not buy it, and use something else. There are many alternatives.

No there isn’t. That’s what a monopoly is. I can’t not use windows. I need it for work
Sorry, that's BS. You made a choice to work at a job that uses Windows. You could work someplace else.

At my job, I can't not use Linux. If I refuse to use Linux, I get fired, because all our work is done on that. Your job is exactly the same: they chose, for whatever reasons, to use Windows for their IT infrastructure. You chose to take that job. If not using Windows was important to you, you would have asked about this before taking the job, and declined, and looked for a job that uses the OS you prefer. There's tons of jobs out there that require using either Linux or Mac. There might even be a few still using z/OS.

Part of working at a real job is using whatever tools they require you to use. I don't care much for Confluence, but I use it because my company requires it.

Desktop windows is a dead end product. Extracting any value from the few that still use it is natural.
Windows is a platform for everything else Microsoft rents. Driving people away from it will hopefully work one of these days ;-)
whether you are using profit or market cap it's clear Apple, and therefore Tim Cook, is the winner. add to the fact that Apple clearly has been the most responsible in terms of keeping costs under control and therefore not having layoffs or other cost cutting measures now, says it all.
What exactly is the metric for "best" here?

I consider MS's record under Nadella to be a mixed bag. Azure is probably Nadella's biggest success, but it's hard to come up with any other significant market in which MS has excelled under Nadella where they were not previously dominant.

From a user perspective, many MS products I use have improved and many have changed in ways I would consider to be detrimental. VS Code is probably the only new MS product that I've started using regularly - and I'd only consider it to be a minor improvement over Sublime Text for my use cases.

Nvidia's CEO Jensen Huang has an impressive track record. They are positioned incredibly well right now with the AI boom and demand for their AI technology which they've been developing for many years.
Still waiting for an MS product that I would use voluntarily. Excel is good, VS-Code is OK. Not using either one atm
Oh dear. You asked an honest open-ended question, but failed to define any criteria for being "best".

So let me summarise - clearly not, because they don't make a consumer/device (aka phone). Only phone companies can have a best CEO. Then again Apple doesn't have a successful cloud platform, Google doesn't make cars, Amazon's rockets aren't very useful, SpaceX doesn't make a phone, Tesla -is- a phone (the best "mobile" phone ever?). What about social media, ad-platform, AI?

Clearly deciding it based on product is absurd.

Equally we could debate the merits of owning an OS, or an Office platform, or a streaming service.

We could base it on innovation, stock price and growth, market cap, employee numbers, cash in the bank, acquisitions, willingness to kill projects, ability to smoke weed. We could define it as having laid off no-one ever.

All of which is to say, there's no "best" to begin with. There are thousands of companies,of every scale, which have done well by some metric, which have survived rocky roads, which have provided value to society, to customers, to employees.

My hat is off to all if them. Their success keeps food on the table, and roofs over heads.

Asking which is best, without define criteria is hopeless because clearly all companies have strengths and weaknesses. We might as well puck which sport is "best". (Where the right answer is golf because, um, that's what I like. And because more 80+ year-olds do golf than everything else combined. They're experienced enough to know.)

Hi Satya, thanks for posing this interesting question.
I think his flexibility to not make Windows first gave his engineers new life. Not being forced into a set of predictable actions based on ideology and being flexibly minded to let his engineer follow the best path is why Microsoft has risen from its decades of stagnation. He didn't lead with fear the same way Sundar is leading Google.
What did you think was going to happen to Microsoft's embedded and deeply moated monopoly? It was just going to go away? It was bedded in. Anyone who has used office in the enterprise environment over the last 15 years can tell you it wasn't a strategy or software quality that got them here.
Microsoft SHOULD be a leader in mobile and instead they just pivot from one tech hype to the next.

Windows 11 is a laughing stock to many and it isn't exactly flying off the shelves.

Microsoft is a hot mess and Nadella is a trader the same way Pichai is at Google.

Same for Tim Cook.

Look back at news articles for the past year and watch how fast Nadella pivoted from "the metaverse" to GPT.

Stock buybacks make CEOs look impressive if you don't know about stock buybacks.

https://money.usnews.com/investing/articles/s-p-500-stocks-w...

> Microsoft SHOULD be a leader in mobile and instead they just pivot from one tech hype to the next.

They are, they had flat UI and dark mode years before anyone else. I imagine iOS and Android will get live tiles one of these days, too.

I'd say he is the best non-founder CEO perhaps ever.
Tim Cook and Apple have better stats by virtually every metric - also a non-founder.
I don't think Tim Cook has had much impact on Apple however.
He has lead Apple after Jobs died which is no small task. He oversaw the iPhone market which has been growing continuously under his leadership. He started and grew Apple’s services division, launched Apple Watch, AirPods and the Apple Silicon transition which have all been massively successful by any metric. I don’t understand how Tim Cook’s tenure can be considered not impactful.
I agree with "Apple Silicon transition". Everything else is obvious / organic growth.
Apple Silicon is certainly impressive.

But it remains to be seen if Apple can scale that hardware to servers, AI, etc.

AirPods?
> He turned around an almost dying windows to become this Kraken that has the majority dev environment in its chokehold.

Microsoft was still growing under Ballmer. Windows was far away from “dying”.

You need to define the measurable criteria during the evaluation time period

Then you can sample across CEOs and then measure Nadella based on that

Do you have such criteria and data?

Tech Bullmarket masks failures of all tech CEOs.
Nice try, Satya
Lisa Su of AMD.

She made it relevant again.

Wouldn't that be pre-twitter Musk?
> the majority dev environment in its chokehold

Is that so?

I still don’t understand why VSCode is so popular. I don’t like it very much. I’ll stick with IntellliJ for Java / Scala and Neovim for everything else.
It's fast, easy for beginners, and free. That's pretty good to start with.
The 2022 Stack Overflow survey has it at 75% market share.

https://survey.stackoverflow.co/2022/#most-popular-technolog...

Relying on stack overflow data is biased towards badly documented technologies, which Microsoft Products usually are.
> is biased towards badly documented technologies

What a nonsensical, unverifiable statement. Stack Overflow is for better or worse a statistically valid sample of programmers from around the world.

Betteridge's law of headlines says, “no”.
I love you. I fail to remember the name of this phenomenon and I spend 3 minutes googling for it every time I see a headline that is a question.
“Is there any CEO better than Satya Nadella?” The “law” is no such thing.
Of course it’s a thing. It even has a Wikipedia article. You might not agree with it, but that’s not the same as it not being a thing.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Betteridge's_law_of_headline...

As it says in the article you yourself linked, it is an adage, not a law. My point is, this is not a generalizable thing, so comments using this to defend their response is not useful.
That isn’t a headline though
I don't care what Microsoft turned around, what they did to stagnate and gatekeep technology in the 90's is unforgivable, and always will be.
Balmer was the worst, so anyone is better.