[avz]

Side note: Sorry to spoil the apparently impeccable record, but for completeness:

A half-century ago, civilians could experience supersonic flight. Well, it has since become impossible.

A half-century ago, people walked on the Moon. And not once since.

Just a reminder then that unfortunately the passage of time alone is insufficient to guarantee technological progress. Now, let's get back to work, I guess...

[dopidopHN]

Absolutely. I wonder if say, cheap energy, will be as readily available for non gov / army purposes in 50 years.

The comment your responding too sound like someone born in the 60´s or 50’s. ( meaning : tech is always progressing, no limit, forward and upward . It’s nice. But I don’t think it match 2023 )

[moloch-hai]

Energy is available more cheaply now than at any time in history, and the cost is still falling at an exponential rate.

You can just set out a solar panel and collect hundreds of watts. The only way that could be lost is if civilization collapses so solar panels can't be made anymore. Even if that happens, most of humanity would quickly starve, and whoever is left would find plenty of panels to salvage.

[dopidopHN]

Yes, it is absolutely the cheapest in history. Or maybe that was in 2008 actually, when the oil producing countries organisation let us know that we reached peak oil production. Most likely that was the cheapest in human history.

What I’m saying is that it’s not going to be cheaper.

We’re gonna have to work more and more for it. That’s fine.

Back to the solar panel. Can we produce, operate, service them at scale without the support of cheap petrol?

Can we sustain the industrial process without the gas to carry stuff from one place to another?

Can we build those solar panel in a lighter industrial society?

I think so yes. But we need to be drastically more frugal.

Specially in place like North America and Western Europe. I also welcome that as a nice change.

To put some context : let think about the effect of COVID-19 on the global logistic. I think that was not even a warming round.

More specifically to your point :

- yes, you can collect hundred or watt during the day. Again, it’s great.

- yes, you can salvage them and operate them. For 10 years. Then you need to find a fabric of photovoltaic cells to replace them :)

For example of low tech long term energy I would rather pick wind ( basic wind turbine ) or water ( good old dam and turbine )

My point in one sentence : solar is great, but you need the whole modern industrial complex to use them and that complex is about to be shocked by the scarcity of gas.

[moloch-hai]

Solar and wind are still getting cheaper, with no end in sight. Solar, in particular, will soon drop below $10/MWh. Printed thin-film perovskite cells delivered in rolls will sharply undercut prices for rigid panels.

Silicon cells last well beyond 30 years. Even after 40 years, most will still produce 80% of nameplate power; longer if they are kept cool by floating on reservoirs.

Manufacturing relies on energy available. That will increasingly come from renewables as that fraction of generation increases, so dependence on fossil fuel for that will fall in direct proportion. Transportation still relies on petroleum, but it will soon be cheaper to synthesize fuel using renewable energy; ocean shipping will move to ammonia.

There is no scarcity of gas. There will instead be a surfeit as demand falls off, to the point where it will not be worth extracting at a price competitive with renewables. It will still be used where its carbon is needed, although it will see competition from captured carbon.

We do not need to be frugal. We just need to build out renewables faster.

[dopidopHN]

> there is no scarcity of gas.

Is gas not by default, scarce? In the sense that we know that their is limited reserved ? ( as opposed to infinite reserve of solar energy for instance )

I thought OPEC was more clear on that, I found peak oil date in the 2030/2050 range. My understanding was that it was behind us already. Good.

What about storage of solar? We know demands is higher when production is lower ( during winter, in the evening after work and so on )

Don’t we need a second source to complement with something like gas/coal/nuclear ?

> shipping will move to ammonia.

Never heard of it. Great.large ship do consume a lot and our logistic need them.

[Schroedingersat]

Solar panels require some pretty advanced supply chains, but anyone with an engineering textbook, some wire, and some bamboo can gather a few kW of wind for years with a few weeks work.

[AlexanderTheGr8]

you are right about this, but my argument is that we can do this if we want to. Whenever humanity set its sights on a big project such as Apollo or Manhattan, we have accomplished "impossible" things.

[ianai]

Human history is one of both pessimism and optimism. Definitely the optimism of the US in the 1950s and 60s was helped along by the destitution of the Great Depression (1930s+) and WWII. And there was still a lot of suffering and reason to be pessimistic in that time. (And the 30s were a direct result of the 20s.)

I’ve also seen the studies on human cycles suggesting a link between how long ago a period of massive suffering occurred and the propensity for people to entertain ideas likely to bring about great suffering. Simply, people unable to forget the horribleness of war will fend off the little and big things that can lead to war much better than people who have never seen war.

I hope humanity can regain some optimism and direction without having to go through a world war. Or similar.

I find it worrying how much modern fiction is dystopian. I would call Game of Thrones dystopian, for instance, and it was immensely popular. Utopias like Star Trek are often ridiculed, for counterpoint.

Granted, internet comments are generally worthless. The signal to noise ratio in HN comments has gotten extra horrible of late, for that matter. It could be just the low lying fruit for people to get upvotes. But it degrades the site.