[moloch-hai]

Solar and wind are still getting cheaper, with no end in sight. Solar, in particular, will soon drop below $10/MWh. Printed thin-film perovskite cells delivered in rolls will sharply undercut prices for rigid panels.

Silicon cells last well beyond 30 years. Even after 40 years, most will still produce 80% of nameplate power; longer if they are kept cool by floating on reservoirs.

Manufacturing relies on energy available. That will increasingly come from renewables as that fraction of generation increases, so dependence on fossil fuel for that will fall in direct proportion. Transportation still relies on petroleum, but it will soon be cheaper to synthesize fuel using renewable energy; ocean shipping will move to ammonia.

There is no scarcity of gas. There will instead be a surfeit as demand falls off, to the point where it will not be worth extracting at a price competitive with renewables. It will still be used where its carbon is needed, although it will see competition from captured carbon.

We do not need to be frugal. We just need to build out renewables faster.

[dopidopHN]

> there is no scarcity of gas.

Is gas not by default, scarce? In the sense that we know that their is limited reserved ? ( as opposed to infinite reserve of solar energy for instance )

I thought OPEC was more clear on that, I found peak oil date in the 2030/2050 range. My understanding was that it was behind us already. Good.

What about storage of solar? We know demands is higher when production is lower ( during winter, in the evening after work and so on )

Don’t we need a second source to complement with something like gas/coal/nuclear ?

> shipping will move to ammonia.

Never heard of it. Great.large ship do consume a lot and our logistic need them.