[sharedfrog]

This is relevant to today's events because Magnus Carlsen just withdrew from a tournament[1] after yesterday's loss to a significantly lower rated opponent who had previously been suspended for cheating on chess.com. The tournament organizers have also implemented additional anti-cheating protocols starting today.

Whatever comes out of these accusations, the chess world will sure enjoy its new infusion of drama.

[1] https://twitter.com/MagnusCarlsen/status/1566848734616555523

[icelancer]

Wow, somehow I missed this. Pretty wild accusations from Magnus and Hikaru on this. Hans just had a horrific tournament in his last attempt, which makes this whole thing pretty interesting.

Hans didn't play engine perfect lines when beating Magnus in the Sinquefield Cup, though he obviously played extremely accurately.

[squidbeak]

Ignoring the lines (and any cheat at this level would be canny enough to avoid the top few engine moves), there's something seriously off about Niemann's analysis - shallowness and incoherence covered over with bluster. Even Ramirez seemed disdainful of his reasoning about his position against Firoujia tonight.

It's pretty grim for him if he really didn't cheat. He won't be invited to a tournament involving Magnus again.

[fzliu]

Seconded re: Neimann's analysis. Specifically, he stated in a post-game interview that Carlsen had played the same Nimzo-Indian g3 line in a prior tournament, even though that never happened.

For the sake of the sport, I hope Neimann didn't cheat, but I doubt we'll ever know for sure.

[randunel]

https://www.chessgames.com/perl/chessgame?gid=1981206 (a blitz to be compared against https://www.chessgames.com/perl/chessgame?gid=2372960 from 2 days ago).

[mda]

Yeah, but Move 6 is different and it changes the whole dynamics of the game.

Prior to Move 6 this is a well known line with 700 hundred high level games, and Magnus (apparently) never played the line with 6.a3 before, so I find Hans's claim extremely dubious.

Still not an evidence that he cheated, but I agree that sum of signals e.g. prior cheating ban on chess.com, incoherent after game analysis without engine help and in general never being worse against 4 Super GMS and having a winning position against all of them does not paint a good picture. Something smells, but we will probably never know.

Edit: corrected move#

[fzliu]

Good catch. I was searching for a game without Nf3, but this is effectively a transposition.

One minor point folks aren't mentioning that I think works in Neimann's favor - Carlsen is known for enjoying the Catalan, and the opening in the game was essentially a Nimzo/Catalan hybrid. This fact makes Neimann's supposed pre-game prep a bit more palatable. Everything else (postgame interview, past history, Twitter antics) seems to work against Neimann though.

My question is - if Neimann did cheat, how? Doesn't seem like something that can be done easily in an OTB tournament.

[eru]

You could stick the computer in your shoe, like the submission suggests?

Or you could swallow a buzzer? The input could come from someone who watches the board from afar?

[lavp]

There are rumors that Carlsen's prep got leaked and that Niemann knew what was going to played the morning of.

Although this is pure speculation, it seems to be a more plausible and satisfactory explanation if Niemann did in fact cheat. It would also explain why Carlsen would withdraw from the tournament rather than continuing.

[mda]

Did Magnus ever played 6.a3 line before in this well known Nimzo variant? The Game with So doesn't have it.

[searealist]

Are you accusing him of cheating today despite the 15 minute delay and heightened security?

[soegaard]

The 15 minute delay was introduced after the Magnus game.

[searealist]

We are talking about the Firouzja game.

[threatofrain]

No, the accusation is that the sum of signals doesn't look good.

[searealist]

It's binary. Either he did cheat today or he did not. If he did not then who cares what his post analysis looks like after drawing the #4 player in the world and being +3 at some point. The only reasonable analysis is to declare him a cheater today or discard the interview. To say that the interview would point to him cheating vs Magnus but not today is nonsense.

[ivalm]

You can always say 40% cheater, 60% non cheater in this one game, but this updates the priors for future game considerations. At some point the priors will be such that the belief in the risk of cheating (which needs not be more than 50%) will cause the player to not be invited.

[bluecalm]

The event might be binary but our knowledge isn't. You may think he is likely cheating but you're not sure. You won't declare him a cheater but you will be suspicious.

[Andrew_nenakhov]

What is the reasoning of people accusing a player of the OTB cheating? That he somehow (with the help of a computer?) got up to +3 at some point against said #4 player, but then decided to stop cheating?

If he is that 'bad' to draw a +3 position, how did he achieve this position in the first place?

[em1sar]

this guy is right

[textadventure]

No GM would be stupid enough to cheat playing 100% engine lines, they of all people know which engine lines would look particularly suspicious. All they need to know is to avoid any serious blunders, and play some important moves here and there, and that's enough to get a serious advantage at this level.

[lovemenot]

It turns out that "Clever Hans" was reading subconscious body language cues from Magnus

[pge]

background for anyone that didn’t get this joke:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clever_Hans

[ManWith2Plans]

Do you have a source of Magnus accusations? He seems to have withdrawn relatively quietly, perhaps consciously trying to refrain from cheating accusations.

Hikaru was less reserved on the other hand. He called Hans's post-game interview analysis sub-2700 level after Hans Neiman badly mis-evaluated several positions.

[andy-eye-candy]

His tweet included a video of a famous interview with Jose Mourinho saying “if I speak I am in big trouble”

[Cthulhu_]

Yeah I think he's being very professional instead of just throwing out accusations; let the arbitrators call that.

I'm not at all into chess (only through the odd HN post where I get out-nerded left, right and center), but I can imagine it ends up being a very analytical thing, where the experts or analysts can spot whether someone is playing like a human or a computer. And I also think they can't add "noise" (e.g. human mistakes) to it either, that'll either throw the computer off, OR it'll look "uncharacteristic".

[TempUserzzz]

Not a member of this forum, but wanted to help a bit here.

First off, computers are (especially in complex positions) ridiculously stronger than humans, like your average family car can't keep up with a Ferrari. In less complex games (like an endgame with fewer pieces) top-10 players can definitely play 20 perfect moves in a row, in an attacking game that's harder. A player like Niemann is not really expected to reach that level in a game like this.

A second point is how much time you spend on each move. If you play a move with big consequences (say sacrificing material, or violating a principle) you would generally think longer. A computer doesn't see it that way and might spot "instantly" that this move wins material 7 moves down the road, where even a World Champion will check his analysis before playing that.

So playing too perfect and playing too fast in critical positions are both red flags. In Online chess, they often use this to grade your moves, and flag you if you go over certain thresholds, especially if you have a lower "rating".

Hans Niemann did both of this (too fast and too good) and then after the game was not really able to explain his thought process afterwards. None of this is hard evidence, but they are red flags, and if you add that Niemann has been caught before in online chess... that's so many red flags it would make the CCP proud.

Hope that helps a bit! So no, there is no very analytical thing, which does mean we need to be a bit careful and leave the option open that Niemann maybe just really liked this move on general grounds, got lucky it worked, and has learned of his previous mistakes. It could definitely happen.

[cool_dude85]

Nothing really throws the computer off. It is objectively much better than any human at evaluating any position, not just the types of positions computers get into.

[chalst]

Magnus didn't make an overt accusation: it was other chess experts who read that into the circumstances of his withdrawal &c.

Esports has a nice overview of the most prominent reactions:

https://esports.gg/news/gaming/hikaru-nakamaru-on-carlsens-w...

[bananamerica]

I think it is important to notice that Magnus actually didn't make any actual accusation.

[bo1024]

It doesn't sound like Magnus has made any accusation, right?

[llimllib]

He has done absolutely everything you can do to accuse somebody without actually crossing the line into directly accusing them. His meaning could not really be more obvious.

(My bias: I think Hans' analysis is pretty dubious, but if it were anyone other than Magnus I would give these accusations little credence. I think we who are not in the know should be giving Hans more benefit of the doubt than people generally seem to be giving)

[sgjohnson]

Yes, because he's far too professional to do that without ironclad proof.

And even if he had ironclad proof, he might still not go public.

[Cthulhu_]

If he had ironclad proof, he'd hand it over to the arbitration committee / judges; it's not very professional I think to accuse people directly, even with proof.

[emodendroket]

I'd say the video attached to this tweet is rather clearly insinuating some accusation though I haven't been following this saga.

[dandanua]

Withdrawing from the tournament is the loudest accusation you can make without words. I'd rather believe Hans on this https://youtu.be/GSLM1K6O6aU?t=1507

[fasthands9]

I know very little about chess.

Do computers play like top humans? Or different stylistically?

ie - if you were a top player and looking at the moves of an opponent, could you discern if the style was more similar to a top rated human or a top rated computer?

[CSMastermind]

There are "computer moves" which stand out vs human players. These normally show up in lines where there are many options of roughly equal value and the computer picks a move that is infinitesimally better but out of 'theme' with the position.

They can also show up when for instance there are multiple checkmates in a position. The computer will choose the one requiring the least number of moves even if it requires deep calculation and perfect play. Humans will just trade off material and go for an easy win.

Now that chess engines have started to use neural networks in move selection the amount of "computer moves" has decreased noticeably.

> if you were a top player and looking at the moves of an opponent, could you discern if the style was more similar to a top rated human or a top rated computer?

With a large enough sample size I believe that top players would be able to tell the difference. But that sample size is much larger than a single game or likely even the ~10 games being played in a tournament.

Edit:

Oh I should also mention that in the context of cheating with computers there are more signals to look at than the moves themselves. Time management is normally a huge giveaway for cheating. In online chess this normally manifests itself as players using the exact same amount of time for each move in spite of the positions being very different in terms of complexity.

In the match being talked about above Hans, the challenger, used a suspicious amount of time during the opening sequence. He played the opening moves in around 10 minutes which is weird because if he had memorized the lines he would have played them much faster. If he didn't memorize the lines then it would have taken him much more than 10 minutes to calculate it all.

[stouset]

> There are "computer moves" which stand out vs human players. These normally show up in lines where there are many options of roughly equal value and the computer picks a move that is infinitesimally better but out of 'theme' with the position.

To elaborate on this, humans use pattern recognition to identify themes within a position. This is a shortcut that prevents needing to mentally brute-force your way down an enormous tree of possible positions. Elite chess-playing humans are very good at this, but are still very good at spotting potentially non-thematic (perhaps "surprising") moves that offer some quantifiable advantage.

Computers operate very differently from humans. They rigorously evaluate positions to absurd depths. They can examine lines further than 30 moves deep without too much time. Often the moves they come up align with the thematic ideas that humans have (after all, there's a reason why humans have identified these patterns). But at the end of the day, the computer isn't playing thematically. It only cares that the position at the end of best-play by both sides has the score most in its favor.

This leads to computers playing moves that humans would only come up with exceedingly rarely. And if a human came up with that move, there would generally be some clearly-identifiable reward that humans can pick up on several moves later. When a human player plays computer moves, those noticeable rewards are often missing. The cheating human makes a puzzling move, play continues, and many moves later their opponent is worse off. But even after serious analysis it's not entirely clear how that original move brought about this advantageous position.

Of course maybe the human in question really wasn't cheating and stumbled into a brilliancy. Perhaps it's even one they didn't even truly understand the ramifications of when they played it! But when a human makes several of those types of moves in a single game, or even across a single tournament, it brings about extreme suspicion.

[aoeusnth1]

If this interests anyone reading this, check out this Daniel Naroditsky video where he analyzes positions with some astounding engine moves which are very difficult for humans to see, but do have logical reasons for why they work: https://youtu.be/GdaU7wpOArs

[threatofrain]

If there is too little communication between you and behind-the-scenes cheating operator, you run the risk of choosing a move which requires perfect play for a long sequence, otherwise it would give away that you didn't understand the move.

[Andrew_nenakhov]

This is a rather poor example. If there are multiple checkmates, humans are usually much more likely to see ones that require the least number of moves. Anyway if there are multiple checkmates, the game is irrecoverably lost by another player and it is easy to see on the board.

[myownpetard]

It's more complex than this.

The situation would be more like, there is a forced checkmate in 12 but it involves navigating a sharp position that is complex and any miscalculation could equalize the position.

On the other hand, you can simply exchange queens and rooks and have a clear winning endgame, but it will only result in a checkmate in 20 moves.

Almost any human would opt for the latter to avoid the risk. From the computer's perspective, there is no risk.

[Andrew_nenakhov]

I tend to analyse my games after playing them, and I must say that NOT ONCE in a few hundred of games played at my level (~2500+ on lichess rapid) I have seen a forced mate in 10+ moves other than in end-game when there are very few pieces on the board left. And when you see such long checkmate, usually it doesn't really matter, because by then all is already clear on the board.

So no, I stand by my point that a specific choice of one of multiple possible checkmates is quite a poor indicator of using a computer to calculate moves.

[myownpetard]

That's surprising to me especially for rapid but you're better than me (2000 lichess). Under time pressure, if I have a passed a or h pawn and can simply trade down and promote I will opt to do that rather than try to calculate a deep mating combination.

> other than in end-game

This is frequently where such scenarios occur. Many end games are difficult for humans to play with absolute precision, even seemingly simple ones like knight and bishop vs. king. But when there are fewer pieces on the board is exactly when computers are able to perform incredibly deep calculations.

A good example is the notorious 30 move forced mate that Caruana "missed" in game 6 of his world championship match with Magnus, which occurred with only 3 pieces and 3 pawns left on the board.

[underdeserver]

This is false. If there's a longer mate where every move from your opponent is forced (that is, only one more is legal or doesn't immediately lose) a human player will play that, as opposed to a shorter mate, in say 5 moves, where you have all sorts of different cases to calculate depending on what your opponent plays.

[Andrew_nenakhov]

You should be more careful with such statements. Boldly claiming that something is 'false' and backing it up with a rather vague hypotheticals does not make your statement look good, considering that said hypotheticals are not supported by my own chess playing experience. Of course, I don't claim to be a really strong player or something, and my lichess rapid rating is only ~2580, so maybe your expertize in these matters exceeds mine.

[georgiecasey]

That's a serious lichess rapid rating. Are you a titled player?

[grumpopotamus]

The top chess engines are now much much stronger than humans, and they will find some moves that grandmasters are unlikely to even consider. One recent example was Kf8 in the recent Patrycja Waszczuk cheating scandal: https://www.chess.com/news/view/patrycja-waszczuk-cheating-2.... I watched Hikaru Nakamura analyze the game on stream and he burst out laughing when he saw the infamous Kf8 move, since it was such a bizarre move for a human to play.

[andy81]

Link to stream highlights - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3BgVe_Jp4Ys

That Kf8 really is the move of somebody living in another universe.

[faeriechangling]

I can't find a citation but I recall that computers agreed with the moves of grandmasters from the pre-computer era about 60% of the time.

Generally, the biggest heuristic for identifying cheating is identifying somebodies moves share statistical similarity to the top moves of common engines (Especially stockfish). This doesn't really work after a single game, but anybody playing the top move of stockfish 90% of the time over 100 games is a cheater. Nobody that isn't cheating can do that. Cheaters are savvy though, they will notice in a position there are maybe 5 decent moves they can choose from, so for just that position they will choose stockfish's 5th choice. Or maybe they'll only check the engine at the most critical moments of the game and turn the engine off and play normally afterwards. Notice that the person being debated in this article is somebody with a history of cheating, the evidence they cheated in this specific game is likely not as good as the evidence they are just generally a cheater.

On top of this more empirical analysis, there's more subjective analysis. Humans tend to try to simplify games when they're ahead to reduce computational complexity, but computers don't do this as it's not a good strategy for a computer. Humans will tend to follow a narrative and follow a general idea throughout a game with ideas they calculated earlier in the game or in their preparation, whereas computers don't care about narratives and will completely switch plans on a dime. In the endgame the computer starts having a LOT of winning moves that it hasn't calculated to the end and can start making very offbeat choices, whereas humans tend to use a set of rote memorised strategies that are known wins. Again though, a skilled cheater realises all this and will choose weaker more human-like moves that are probably the engines 2nd or 3rd choice.

There's also metadata. Cheaters usually take a few seconds to think about a move that a human would make instantly (this came up in the article where it took the cheater 20 seconds to make their first move), they probably exhibit different browser/app interaction habits. Humans have all sorts of particularities about UI interaction and time management. A lot of people play blitz and bullet chess because cheaters struggle to cheat convincingly under time pressure.

[okamiueru]

> 20 seconds to make their first move

At this level, players know all opening lines to some depth. The first move? I don't see how 20 seconds indicate anything other than a passage of time.

[faeriechangling]

Well in this case it did actually indicate something other than the passage of time, it indicates the player was using a shoe operated cheating device an remarked on how he would normally move more quickly.

Maybe I overemphasized the first move because it was emphasized in the article, in general cheaters use their clock in weird ways throughout the game since for them pretty much any move is similarly complex. In this case the shoe operating cheating device raised the minimum time to make a move, which is a characteristic common to many forms of cheating.

[bjourne]

Yes, you could very easily do that. However, the theory is that cheaters would let the engine decide only 3-4 critical moves during a game and that would be enough to turn the tide in their favor. In chess small advantages compounds so this computer help would be enough for grand masters to beat the world champion. A cheater that understands cheating countermeasures could easily fly under the radar that way.

[sgjohnson]

The problem with this approach is that you'd still need to be able to correctly identify those critical moments in the game, and a single move won't help you. You need the entire line.

Which would still require a considerable skill. If you can't figure out why a single move is brilliant, you won't be able to find the entire line.

If stockfish tells you the entire line, and the opponent plays something that wasn't included in stockfish's line (because it's worse), you're also going to be at a loss.

[ciphol]

If you're playing Magnus Carlsen, you're probably pretty skilled to begin with.

[tstrimple]

The best cheaters are also highly skilled. This is true in online competitive games as well. Very rarely do these folks just leave cheats on all the time. That's blatant and easy to ban. But toggling it on at critical moments will give you those "clutch" wins which genuinely happen sometimes, but makes them much more reliable.

[seanhunter]

There are certain moves that players will absolutely call "engine moves". These are usually moves with no discernable purpose (even when calculating deeply) that later on turn out to have been crucial dispite the fact that they don't seem to progress any conventional goal or deal with any current concrete threat. If you analyse a game with Stockfish you'll often see it suggest (say) a calm-looking king move that no human would ever play in the middle of a massive attack but that turns out to resolve some deep positional issue later on.

The clearest example in modern play is a4 and h4 as white (eg early h4 vs the King's Indian Defense) or a5/h5 as black. These are now frequently played in various positions because since they were discovered a few years back by alphazero, they have been extensively examined and found to be good, but prior to that, no strong human would play them.

[camjohnson26]

If every move was an engine it would be suspicious, but it would be easy to just use the engine a few times at important moments in the game to get a huge advantage, and it would be very difficult to detect. The top player normally know the best few moves on the board and choose between them based on long term strategy.

[ummonk]

Top humans tend to pick a slightly weaker move than computers every few moves. By letting the computer veto their chosen move sometimes but not all the time (and only doing so when the computer's chosen move was one they were strongly considering), they can have stronger performance without anyone catching on.

[ken47]

The top chess engine was ELO rated at 3546 in 2021. The top rated player ever was Magnus at 2882. To put that ELO difference in context, even if Magnus gets the first move, the chess engine is expected to win 0.979934616 of the time. Within that gap, there are many moves that can be played that are superior to human moves by varying degrees.

It would be very hard to detect a sophisticated cheater solely by examining their moves in a vacuum. They could pick moves that appear to be "human" e.g. moves that appear to be chosen based on the common heuristics that strong human players tend to rely upon, rather than moves based on very deep brute force calculations, where we could never match the strongest chess engines.

The giveaway is usually in the time required for each move. Humans will tend to spend varying amounts of time on each move, with significantly more time spent at critical moments in a game. A computer will pretty much spend the same amount of time for each move. But even here, a sophisticated cheater could disguise this side effect by only using computer assistance at critical moments.

[1] https://wismuth.com/elo/calculator.html#rating1=3546&rating2...

[thret]

Agadmator covered this game and explains a disgusting computer line quite well. Note that under time pressure, a human can only calculate so many lines. They will immediately see a range of possible good lines, explore them to some depth and choose the best looking one. This engine line takes a bad looking path which comes good only after 19 moves.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=64o62MrhvXc&t=1400s

[colechristensen]

There are some grandmaster chess streamers who play random people on the internet and pick up rather quickly when they are playing against a chess engine instead of a person.

In a nutshell, computers do some things that are very unlikely for humans to do. A lot of the play is similar, but some things are outliers and high level chess players will notice the unusual style and high accuracy moves of a person assisted by a computer.

[hocuspocus]

In the moment I doubt a top GM would notice. Everyone is preparing using state-of-the-art chess engines and taking inspiration, even from moves that would have been considered crazy a decade ago.

After the fact, it'd probably be more obvious. Human players will typically avoid unnatural moves that require long sequences of perfect play before they pay off.

But top players are also the best qualified at cheating in a way that wouldn't raise suspicion. Many games are lost or drawn because of small mistakes or inaccuracies during the endgame. And playing a perfect endgame is not implausible at this level.

[veidelis]

I don't understand why a GM would need to explain some of his moves precisely and with a deep understanding of the position as some commentators here point out. Why is that so indicative of cheating? It's known that classical chess has a lot of theory, and Hans himself admits that he checked an engine line the evening before the game. So what? Here's the quote:

" I didn’t guess it, but by some miracle I checked this today, and it’s such a ridiculous miracle that I don’t even remember why I checked it. I just remembered 12…h6 and everything after this, and I’ve no idea why I would check such a ridiculous thing, but I checked it, and I even knew that 13…Be6! is just very good. It’s so ridiculous that I checked it. " https://chess24.com/en/read/news/sinquefield-cup-3-niemann-b...

[ebiester]

It's subtle, but the sheer amount of time that it takes to become a top level GM make it such that there's a bit of "GM Speak" that all of them seem to do. So, there is first a cultural variation: the way he speaks doesn't sound like the rest of the experts. By itself, it isn't damning.

However, people at the GM level also tend to have an ability to look at a position and remember what they were thinking at that point of time. They internalize lines in a way that is a branch of moves. So, in this case Be6! is such a sharp position that you would expect them to talk a bit through it because it takes a lot of prep.

Further, when they turned off Stockfish analysis, his analysis goes down sharply.

Further, he was banned from chess.com twice because he was cheating with an engine.

Further, when he was talking about a set of analysis, he made something up on the spot involving a match between Carlsen and GM Wesley So, and Wesley So said that what he had said was impossible for multiple reasons on another chess streamer's twitch.

It's a lot of little things that don't add up. It's like if you were in an interview and asking a developer to explain some code on their Github about ML, and they sounded like they didn't understand the basic principles of the model they coded. It doesn't mean they didn't write the code, but it casts suspicion.

[runnerup]

It's just one signal among others. All other GM's who have beat Magnus in classical format tournaments have been able to explain themselves very clearly. This guy can't. He might be a more "intuitive" player, or he might be cheating.

There's no smoking gun to show laypeople like you and I but people familiar with the scene and its norms do find this to be a salient point of data against Hans.

[nsv]

What people are speculating is that Magnus' prep got leaked to Hans leading to him researching this line. Of course just speculation, no hard proof. I tend to be of the mindset of "innocent until proven guilty".

[queuebert]

I know some fairly high rated players who've had accounts suspended for cheating because they got angry and used an engine to cheat a cheater. So you can be a good player and a cheater.

Edit: For clarification, after losing to an obvious engine user, they used an engine themselves to strike back.

[pvillano]

A speed running cheating expert on YouTube has observed that many cheating scandals start with a genuinely skilled player breaking records legitimately. However, that player starts cheating later in their career to maintain their status when they can't keep up with the brutal grind of being the best.

[zibby8]

Is there any evidence Hans Niemann was suspended specifically for cheating? I’ve seen multiple unsubstantiated claims, but no source that definitively states he was suspended for cheating.

[sgjohnson]

> but no source that definitively states he was suspended for cheating.

And no source will. I'm not sure why chess.com didn't make it public (by a notice on his profile that his account was suspended for Fair Play violations).

But yes, the only 2 entities that can definitively state that are:

1. chess.com

2. Hans himself

Not sure why chess.com won't, but Hans won't for obvious reasons.

[avip]

This makes little sense no? With 200 ELO diff Hans should beat Magnus ~1/4 games.

[icelancer]

Only by K factor; those calculations don't hold at the highest levels, the distribution is skewed. Magnus also rarely loses with the white pieces in classical; his last loss was in 2018 at Biel vs. a much better player than Hans.

[avip]

You're right, it's ~1/25. So still should happen.

[sharedfrog]

For sure. On its own, it's no more than a raised eyebrow. The next few days will show if there's any solid evidence.

Btw. the 24% chance of "winning" against a 200 Elo higher rated opponent refers to "winning a point" - it includes draws as well.

[texasbigdata]

Rookie question but don’t draws occur more than 20-25% of the time at this level? Or is that just a unique feature of chess versus say StarCraft.

Restated, are sports specific ELO scores real? Alternatively phrased, does an X ELO score in one competitive endeavor represent the same relative strength as the same ELO in another subject?

[sharedfrog]

Draws are the most common outcome at the "supergrandmaster" level, yes, to the extent that calls for changes to tournament formats or the game itself are often called for. Chess960 is the most popular chess variant, in which the starting positions of the pieces are shuffled in some way, resulting in 960 possible starting positions. There's also been experiments done with no-castling chess or tweaks to how the pawns move, or the ability to capture your own pieces.

I'm not sure about your Elo question but I think a 200 points difference should meant the same thing regardless of sport.

[lesuorac]

> Restated, are sports specific ELO scores real? Alternatively phrased, does an X ELO score in one competitive endeavor represent the same relative strength as the same ELO in another subject?

Yes and No.

Yes but in the long term. ELO is a self-fulfilling prophecy so if your ELO states you should win say 30% of the games vs a different ELO but you win 50% your ELO rises until you have an ELO that states you should win 50% of the games vs that ELO (at which point you lose the same amount of points in a loss as your wins so it stops rising. Previously you gained more points for a win than a loss so you gradually increased in rating).

No because not every sport starts ELO at the same baseline and not every sport league (i.e. Chess website) starts the base ELO at the same (i.e. Lichess starts everybody with 1500, Chess.com starts everybody with 1000). It's also a relative metrics amoungst active players (who indirectly/directly play each other) so if a GM 500 years ago reached an ELO of 2100 that doesn't mean they're the same strength of a current player with an ELO of 2100.

[systemvoltage]

Not correct, the current rating doesn't reflect growing player's strength. It takes time for them to accrue rating. Alireza used to be beat players 200 points higher as he was climbing through the ladders. Hans just topped 2700.

There is also the reverse side of the coin that top players peak at a rating and then decline as they age. Not saying Magnus is, but it is not a possibility that can be ruled out.

[peter422]

Magnus has played tons and tons of chess games this year and has maintained his rating. There is no doubt his rating is very accurate unless you think his skill started to deteriorate in the last month.

[systemvoltage]

What if Hans is actually rated higher than his current rating, seems quite plausible, no? ELO has pros and cons; it is not some law of nature: https://en.chessbase.com/post/what-s-wrong-with-the-elo-syst...

[peter422]

I think your point is fine for Hans, I’m just ruling out the possibility that Magnus is overrated.

The reason a lot of older players are overrated is because they stop playing as often and their rating doesn’t catch up to their decline. Magnus plays a ton so that isn’t a concern.

For elite younger players, no matter how much they play, they are getting better so quickly that the rating can’t catch up.

Younger players also get better much much faster than older players decline. It might take a decade for a GM past their prime to drop 100 ELO, whereas a young player can easily add 100 ELO in a year on their way to super GM status.

[squidbeak]

Alireza was able to speak accurately and in depth in his post game interviews along the way. Niemann doesn't seem able to do this.

[systemvoltage]

What are you talking about? He talked for 17 mins and according to GothamChess and PowerPlayChess, it was one of the best chess interviews ever.

Here it is: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DCeJrItfQqw

I don't get it. HN seems to be always on the skeptical side when accusing anyone, here we're seeing people pile up on Hans without any evidence whatsoever.

The fact of the matter is, no one knows why Magnus quit.

[FreakLegion]

> it was one of the best chess interviews ever

It was, but for reasons having nothing to do with his analysis of the game. Stronger players like Hikaru have dismantled Hans' last two interviews pretty convincingly[1]. Those interviews and his history of being banned from chess.com seem to be driving the current speculation more than Hans' actual play.

The interview after Magnus was great because Hans was saying things like "He's just so demoralized because he's losing to an idiot like me. It must be embarrassing for the world champion to lose to me." People were excited to have a "Conor McGregor of chess", so to speak. That's it.

1. See short clips at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ETzdxK7QUmg and https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5qTs-eFgLqc for example.

[pedrosorio]

Is there any other player with similar rating trajectory [0] to Hans at his age (going from international master at 17.5 to super GM at 19 years old)?

I'm aware of an Indian player, Arjun Erigaisi [1], who made headlines for quickly climbing from 2600 to 2700+ over the last year (18-19 years of age), but he was a grandmaster before he turned 15, whereas Hans achieved everything (including the grandmaster title), in the past 2 years.

[0] https://ratings.fide.com/profile/2093596/chart

[1] https://ratings.fide.com/profile/35009192/chart

[enneff]

On the specific line Hans dodges the discussion. FWIW Gotham et al are just happy about the interview for the entertainment factor, when most post game interviews are very dry and boring.

[sdwr]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DCeJrItfQqw&t=377s

I don't see a cheater, I see someone who's been grinding for a while and finally popped off. Dunno if he can keep it up though, might be one of those miracle performances that he never recovers from (ex. Linsanity). He comes across as arrogant and a little affected (the hand flourishes, stylistic pauses), but I like him a lot better than Hikaru. Hoping he continues to see success and smooths out his interview performance over time.

If anything, I'm suspicious it's was a throw from Magnus, or at least subconsciously choosing when to relinquish the throne. This is the guy you want to see in the spotlight. He's interesting, confident, and puts his heart into the game.

[tzs]

That was the result of the four games they played at the FTX Crypto Cup in Miami about 3 weeks ago.

Hans, playing back, crushed Magnus in their first game. Then afterwards when an interviewer tried to interview him about the game he just said "The chess speaks for itself" and walked away.

A lot of commentators interpreted that as a bit of trash talk about Magnus, who convincingly won the remaining 3 games.

[tzs]

Elo gives expected outcome in points, not wins. If the formula says ~1/4, it means you should get ~1/4 of the points, not ~1/4 of the wins.

If Hans were to score 1 point off Magnus in a 4 game match it would be far more likely to be be by drawing twice than by winning once.

[epigramx]

I'm not sure why wasn't that blatantly obvious until today. Chess is an extremely unsuitable sport for online because you are 100% free to use the strongest computers on it without 100% no cheat protection at all. It should be ..100% restricted to person-to-person tournaments for keeping score.

[pk2200]

The tournament Carlsen withdrew from today isn't an online event. All the games are played in person at the St. Louis Chess Club.

[ycuser2]

How was Hans able to cheat? Seriously curios.

[texasbigdata]

Hmmm I wonder what this thread is called

[rcxdude]

It's pretty easy to detect the blatent cheaters who just copy moves from the top engines: you just run the engines on the game and compare the moves between the player and engine: a close enough match is certainly cheating. More sophisticated cheaters who actually know the game well themselves are harder to catch.

[bumbledraven]

Maybe Ken Regan will investigate.

HOW TO CATCH A CHESS CHEATER Ken Regan Finds Moves Out of Mind Chess Life, June 2014 https://cse.buffalo.edu/~regan/personal/JuneCLarticleKWR.pdf

[runnerup]

I considered that you could have vibration sensor plates under player's feet but I can imagine several ways this "doesn't work":

1) Feet could be stimulated using electrical voltage (low level shocks).

2) Cheaters could put one foot on their knee and the system would only activate vibration when it was near a 90-degree rotation.

3) Cheaters could incorporate a vibration-damping polymer like sorbothane, probably a particularly low durometer to absorb vibrations between shoe insert and floor plate.

I believe the answer is going to have to be establishing a "secure" zone that can't be crossed by anyone without a full x-ray scan of all personal effects and mmWave scanners. If clothing blocks the mmWave scan, people would have to don lighter / more form-fitting clothing while going through the mmWave scanner, send their preferred clothes through the x-ray machine, and then swap into their desired clothes in a secure changing room/bathroom.

The main downside to this is increased cost; I'm not even sure how much this would cost to operate. And for which events would FIDE make this extra cost a requirement? Every FIDE rated event seems completely unreasonable - many of these are small local events with very little budget and lots of 1200 rated players. Perhaps any rated event which includes any of the top-10 players? Is there enough money at that level of chess to fund a requirement like this?

Still some potential for hiding cheating devices in relatively private areas like bathrooms, changing rooms, utility closets, or even "planting" large objects like potted plants/etc with hidden compartments. Most likely I'd imagine the player wouldn't grab these, they'd have someone they trust hide them in the weeks before the event and have a person retrieve these and then drop them in a secure bathroom stall/etc. These would be, for example, identical shoes to the ones they came in with.

Perhaps worth having players go through the scanners again right before they sit down at the table, including in the middle of the match if they take a bathroom break/etc. Maybe that would work, but I'm still concerned about the price -- that would need a separate analysis. How much money is available for each of these matches?

The stakes right now are pretty personal but if nations governments get involved in the cheating for reasons of national pride like they do for the Olympics[0] then I'm not sure anyone would be able to stop the cheating.

Another strategy might be to change the format of the top level of chess to "allow" cheating by giving everyone access to whatever engine they want, powered by identical hardware and watt-limited. So the competition would be "man+machine" vs "man+machine". There's been some chat about this but I'm not sure that matches wouldn't be so insanely even that you'd need 300+ games to build a reasonable confidence interval so that you can even determine which player "won". Currently the TCEC (highest level engine vs. engine championship) uses 22 games per matchup to determine a clear result. Even that would be excessive.

0: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Icarus_(2017_film)

1: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Top_Chess_Engine_Championship#....

[gs17]

> I considered that you could have vibration sensor plates under player's feet but I can imagine several ways this "doesn't work":

There's also no reason to expect the shoe form factor to be used repeatedly. One cheater was accused of morse code blinks, although he also had a camera on him [0]. When people talk about vibrating shoes there's always someone joking about a wireless buttplug instead, which would probably not show up in the mmWave scan (I don't know exactly what they look like but I doubt they have huge antennas sticking out). A Faraday cage would go a lot further for the price than airport style scanners IMO (and make every match a cage match, which makes chess sound way cooler), but it's probably still overkill.

[0] https://www.news.com.au/sport/sports-life/chess-players-extr...

[systemvoltage]

Hans seems like a cool guy, I watched his interview afterwards.

PowerPlayChess covered the game, it was a magnificent performance but also not perfect: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n27zd_dVtFw

Those saying it he got banned on chess.com, it was total bullshit, here it is of how it happened live on Han's stream when he was an IM: https://livestreamfails.com/post/84343

More info here, if he was really cheating he would have been banned for life. It was a suspension for 60 mins: https://twitter.com/boomer_chess/status/1566872068922265606

Alireza was also banned on Chess.com for cheating but there was none. I don't think HN crowd realizes how easy it is to falsely get banned on Chess.com, don't assassinate someone's character based on that: https://www.chessdom.com/alireza-firouzja-was-banned-for-che...

[jonwachob91]

Hans admitted to Chess.com he cheated, that's why he was allowed back in cash tournaments such as Titled Tuesday.

Firouzja was 11 years old at the time of his ban and he was an unknown commodity at the time. He was quickly unbanned b/c it was revealed that he was just a kid developing very fast.

Hans' situation and Firouzja's situation are not the same.

[systemvoltage]

There is no direct admission. It is still a speculation: https://old.reddit.com/r/chess/comments/x6rxcx/fact_check_is...

At this point, I am just extremely skeptical of the narratives in chess. It is much like politics. No substance, all speculation. If I have to speculate, it would be that Hans is a weirdo and has no social skills, people are piling up on his atypical asshole-like personality.

If there is proof to any of this, we should condemn it. Cheating sucks. It is even more serious if Hans actually cheated in an OTB game, that would be a major violation of sportsmanship. It would be a career ending move.

[jonwachob91]

Hans own coach published a long statement today and admitted in it that Hans did cheat online.

"It is reasonably well established that Hans cheated online at some point."

[1] https://forum.killerchesstraining.com/t/paranoia-and-insanit...

[PKop]

He got kicked off of chess.com twice for cheating. Doesn't seem so cool.

[jamiek88]

That’s the further punishment of cheating previously.

if you do then pull something cool off legitimately, no one believes you.