[JoshCole]

I know many people strongly believe in rational market theories. For these people this sort of betting site isn't just a betting site: it is the mechanism by which they engage in understanding politics and their primary means of political discourse. Beyond that, it is also an incentive for their own political engagement. They have several mathematical models that are strongly suggestive that they are right to have this belief.

From that framing the government should have no authority whatsoever to take action against PredictIt: doing so is a gross violation of natural rights. To me this seems like an error comparable to restricting freedom of religion, detaining someone so as to prevent them from voting, or the burning of an intellectuals book and the jailing of them so as to prevent the spread of their ideas. It seems an abomination.

What is the justification? Just that there was gambling or is there a deeper fundamental problem that I am missing? Gambling to me seems more fundamental to reality than breathing. Everyone engages in it all the time, but we just don't call it that when we think it might be a gambling category which is of benefit to society.

If there is no justification - what paths can be pursued to permanently sunder the governments ability to take this sort of action in the future? I say all this with no sense of judgement for the CFTC; clearly this is within their mandate under reasonable interpretations. Rather, I think other mandates - more important ones - supersede theirs and should be restricting their authority.

[motohagiography]

While I am a fan of prediction markets, I understood the main argument against them is that they create perverse incentives for people to engage in extreme acts to profit from the outcomes.

I wanted to create markets for things like individual airline flight delay insurance, and a futures market for airline tickets, but all of these are regulated as futures with the same barriers to entry that protect stock exchanges, and there are some rules in insurance about not being able to take out insurance on someone elses' property for related reasons. It's a moral hazard. Betting on politics appears to be framed in similar terms, but the counter arguments would be interesting as well.

I gave up on prediction markets years ago, but if there were a darkweb prediction market for smart contract cryptocurrencies, that would be the most subversively interesting thing to become real in a while.

[inglor_cz]

"they create perverse incentives for people to engage in extreme acts to profit from the outcomes"

So does the very existence of the media, which will amplify any sufficiently gross act of violence to the global auditorium that would otherwise never hear of it, rewarding the culprit with their 15 minutes of fame and possibly inspiring others to do the same.

That isn't a reason to censor journalists, though.

[theptip]

> I understood the main argument against them is that they create perverse incentives for people to engage in extreme acts to profit from the outcomes.

Is that the line of reasoning CFTC is using though?

> if there were a darkweb prediction market

I think this is Polymarket / Gnosis right? Or are you looking for something more obfuscated?

[saurik]

> if there were a darkweb prediction market for smart contract cryptocurrencies

Assuming you mean "using" instead of "for", isn't this Augur? (That said, I haven't used Augur personally; maybe it sucks.) Building prediction markets is one of the more common and older projects for crypto.

[boring_twenties]

There is/was a decentralized prediction market called Augur, on the Ethereum blockchain. I had a lot of fun with it in the v1 days, but after it was replaced to v2 I stopped using it, and I'm pretty sure everyone else did, too.

[John_sm]

I am using the prediction market Futuur, I advise a lot, serious company, several markets on the most diverse topics, I'm making easy money there monthly!

[aaaaaaaaata]

Why?

[jjoonathan]

> darkweb prediction market

Dammit, I had forgotten about the whole "hire a hitman while pretending to just make predictions" thing. It probably isn't just a spooky theory anymore :/

[swatcoder]

You spent a lot of time writing that post and raising questions, but all of the answers are within two clicks of the article.

PredictIt linked to CFTC and CFTC explains their original act and their justification for the withdrawal in extensive detail in documents linked from there.

If you’re actually curious and not just trading outrage for upvotes (I assume not), I’d love to see how your impression evolves in light of the actual facts available to you.

[JoshCole]

I did read that, but it doesn't address my questions. Actually, it doesn't even begin to answer them.

On one level - you don't even seem to have recognized what I was asking about. I wasn't asking about the justification for this particular decision: you'll note I explicitly mention that this is in the mandate for the organization. So any reading that thinks I'm talking about that is actually just a misreading of my point.

I'm asking if it even make sense to allow the government to prevent discussion of political issues using a mechanism which has some basis in being mathematically rational? It really doesn't seem obvious to me that the government ought to have the power to do so. I'm not asking for the justification for this decision. I'm asking if there is a justification for political oppression of the mathematically minded more generally.

That said - even under the framing that the letter answers the misunderstanding of what I was asking about - I still don't find it to have done so.

The letter is vague with respect to which particular issue they were breaking; it listed the things not which of the things they contested were not the case. The extent to which it is vague is such that even on the linked page PredictIt contends it still has not broken the commitments.

This isn't the extremely specified justification you seem to think it is - at least not to someone who isn't extensively familiar with PredictIt; and apparently given PredictIt didn't acknowledge that it felt it was out of line - it isn't even something that someone with extensive familiarity can easily spot.

[tgsovlerkhgsel]

Even in the linked PDF (https://www.cftc.gov/csl/22-08/download) I could only find a claim that "The University has not operated its market in compliance with the terms of Letter 14-130" without specifics. Did you find more anywhere?

[evrydayhustling]

You could make the same argument about any market. And there is a self-consistent libertarian position that no voluntary economic transactions at all should be limited for this reason. But if you accept any form of regulation, the same arguments apply for regulating any market: historically, many markets have been set up with unfair rules that cheat participants because there is a information imbalance between organizers and participants. The CFTC proactively sets standards of fair play and disclosure to address that gap.

Their letter suggests that they were specifically withdrawing the right of predictt to operate without registration. It seems like the discussion can be advanced by registering.

[JoshCole]

Thanks. This answer helped me get more clarity.

[hackernewds]

Gambling is illegal for the same reasons drugs are illegal - the exploitative and addictive nature of it. Unfortunately the populace needs to be protected from itself. One need only look at the gambling addicts in New Orleans to see how unhinged other cities could get.

[kodah]

Vegas and Reno are whole ass cities and they seem just fine. What's your beef with New Orleans?

[vkou]

The reason we have freedom of religion is because when we don't, we get things like holy wars, massacres, and genocides.

It's not because it's some kind of privileged form of understanding the universe. You need to do a lot more work to have your hobby horse hitched to the protections and privileges it receives.

[bequanna]

The government has no problem with gambling or lotteries. They only have a problem when their percentage of the action isn’t big enough.

An alternative theory is that this market was providing information that the current regime is looking to suppress: actual popularity of candidates, policies, etc.

Any speech that violates the official narrative is deemed wrongthink and seems to be fair game for law enforcement/regulators.

[JoshCole]

> An alternative theory is that this market was providing information that the current regime is looking to suppress: actual popularity of candidates, policies, etc.

I don't mean to suggest that this is the intent.

I'm saying it seems to me that something worse than that is the fundamental consequence of the decision. Banning the mathematically rational discussion of politics is actually a bit more extreme than say murdering and burning the books of intellectuals; in terms of attacking truth it does so on a more fundamental level, it is like banning the use of addition as a method of counting - an attack on the very process by which things are known, not just a person. You aren't just murdering one person - this kills an entire category of rational agent; it isn't a ban on knowing a particular fact that is inconvenient. It disallows the seeking in a much more general way.

To try and maybe get across the nature of the violation: this seems to me about as bad as the government declaring that the scientific method was no longer allowed to be used or that people were no longer allowed to have faith. For sure methods of arriving at the truth can be very dangerous, but I don't think it follows from that that the government ought to be allowed to prevent their use for that purpose.

So I'm wondering what I'm missing - or whether there is actually an overstep of authority that ought to be reigned in.

[trebbble]

> Any speech that violates the official narrative is deemed wrongthink and seems to be fair game for law enforcement/regulators.

I see enough "democrats in disarray" or shitting on the Biden admin (maybe both justifiably! That's irrelevant for this post) from allegedly left-leaning outlets that this seems incredibly unlikely to be true. If it is, they're entirely failing at it. Or have for some reason decided to focus only on minor players while major players, with 100+x the audience (ask around in the real world and see how many people have even heard of PredictIt), carry on as usual.

[JohnHaugeland]

"For these people this sort of betting site isn't just a betting site"

just because you choose to assign it some other emotional value doesn't change that the core purpose is illegal

"i'm not burgling, this is how i engage in understanding economics and the primary means of discourse, and the government should have no authority to take action against me"

[StanislavPetrov]

>just because you choose to assign it some other emotional value doesn't change that the core purpose is illegal

The bigger question here is, why is it illegal? Most rational adults understand that the arbitrary decision to ban adults from "gambling" their own money in certain ways, while promoting gambling in other ways is absolutely ridiculous. Here in New York I can today bet on sports and horse racing from my phone or my computer. I am pilloried with ads to play lotto - perhaps the worst form of gambling with only a 50% return on investment in most games - by the state itself! But it is illegal for me to gamble on a skill-based game like poker or predict-it. It reeks of the authoritarian hypocrisy that is the defining feature of our government on every level.

[phpisthebest]

Sadly I think in modern society we have shifted from having to justify why something should be illegal, and today for many the default assumption is that all activity should be illegal and one should need to justify the value, subjective "goodness", or utility of an activity, business, device, etc for it is be ruled "legal"

>by the state itself! But it is illegal for me to gamble on a skill-based game like poker or predict-it

I think you have hit on the root cause, poker and other games of skill is harder for the government to inject themselves into it, harder to control the odds and revenue (like lottery), etc.

[mateo411]

>I think you have hit on the root cause, poker and other games of skill is harder for the government to inject themselves into it, harder to control the odds and revenue (like lottery), etc.

I don't think so. You can just grant a gaming license for a card room. In order to maintain the gaming license the establishment has to pay a yearly licensing fee to the government. That seems pretty straightforward.

[JohnHaugeland]

they did, in fact, very clearly justify why this should be illegal.

[phpisthebest]

I read the CFTC revocation letter, they do not justify anything unless you have a very loose definition of justify

their letter says "we had X exceptions, we say you failed" That is not justification, that is just accusation. Nothing in the 2 page note provides any actual justification.

[JohnHaugeland]

> I read the CFTC revocation letter, they do not justify anything unless you have a very loose definition of justify

The CFTC letter says "we made an agreement eight years ago and you never honored it."

If you want the justification, read the original agreement, not the "you broke your promise, no more special privileges for you" notice.

.

> their letter says "we had X exceptions, we say you failed" That is not justification

That's correct. You looked in the wrong place. Punishment for failing to honor an agreement is not, generally, where people explain the purpose of the agreement.

.

> Nothing in the 2 page note provides any actual justification.

That's correct. You looked in the wrong place.

[JohnHaugeland]

> The bigger question here is, why is it illegal?

So to be clear, you're asking why unregulated online gambling is illegal?

Because that's something you can look up, you know.

.

> Most rational adults

Rational adults are what an internet economist says when they don't want to deal with the real world.

It's like when a physicist says "assume a cuboid cow three feet on an edge."

No, I don't think that I will.

Your attempt to ignore the hundreds of years of law and sociology that underpin this well examined decision with a few fly by the seat guesses about "rational adults" are not actually very compelling.

I find that people on HN frequently fail to understand that the law is a carefully crafted work by tens of thousands of professionals over centuries, that they almost cannot actually upgrade with a hot take.

.

> Here in New York I can today bet on sports and horse racing from my phone or my computer.

Hooray for you.

Maybe if you'd like to look into it, you could learn about the New York gambling regulations, and why they don't fit this institution, and why this institution went to the CFTC for an exception.

After that, maybe you can read the CFTC decision, where they said "we gave them a special exception if they followed some rules, and they didn't follow those rules."

When you're done with that, possibly you could explain to me how what you just said was in any way related to what's happening.

.

> But it is illegal for me to gamble on a skill-based game like poker

Er, no, it's not. Also, poker is not skill based. You may be surprised to learn that the ordering of the deck is random.

Yes, I know people all over the HN thread are claiming that there's a legal decision based on whether it's skill or chance based in flight, that came down to "it's skill."

I look forward to you citing that decision, because it isn't real. I expect you to attempt to cite Jack Weinstein's 2012 Brooklyn decision. I expect you to cite the New York Times article claiming that a circuit judge found that poker was a game of skill, not chance.

Of course, the Times' coverage quality has been in decline for a very long time.

At the end of that article, you will notice that it says "but the judge put off the decision." You'll notice the article was never updated.

So then you look up the decision. And gee, what do you know? It says that poker is, as is obvious, a game of chance. So do statistical analyses: fewer than 10% of 4 player 5 card draw hands can be changed win-vs-lose by player behavior. Most hands, what you drew is generally whether you win or lose.

.

> I am pilloried with ads to play lotto - perhaps the worst form of gambling

It's not gambling if it's not for money, friend.

The ads are playing an ugly game with definitions, and sooner or later they're going to get sued out of existence.

They sell you things that affect your win rates, but you don't actually pay to play, and so under the 1950s law which wasn't written with this in mind, technically it isn't gambling, because even though you can spend money, and even though you can win money, you didn't spend money for the chance to win money.

Their (legally false) argument is that it's like a chess tournament with a prize but no entry fee, which charges for food and refreshments. You can win money, they claim, without spending a dollar, and you only spend money for related enjoyment while you're there.

It's an absurd and false premise, but nobody has bothered to hunt them yet.

Now that Unity is merging with one of the worst malware offenders in the ad market, I kind of expect this to change.

.

"Most rational adults understand that the arbitrary decision to ban adults from X in certain ways, while promoting X in other ways is absolutely ridiculous."

what you just said was "if someone else can commit crime, i should be able to too."

.

> But it is illegal for me to gamble on a skill-based game like poker or predict-it.

let's just come back to this again.

much like poker is (obviously!) not a game of skill, neither is predict-it.

it's not clear to me what you think "game of skill" means under the law. it doesn't mean "a game that someone can be good at."

a game of skill, under the law, is a game where you have all the information and every choice made is fully under the control of one of the two players.

there was a 15 year stretch where people weren't sure if chess was a game of skill because you flip a coin to see who goes first, and chess has a significant first player advantage.

if a single coin flip before any choices are made means it's potentially not a game of skill, i don't see how you could possibly hold that predicting the future, or poker, are. it seems to me like you're just repeating the phrase because you've heard it, and you don't really know what it means.

one of the problems with attempting to argue the law without taking the time to learn the history is that it very frequently doesn't obey the rules that a casual observer might expect.

.

> It reeks of the authoritarian hypocrisy that is the defining feature of our government on every level.

"it's authoritarian hypocrisy that i can't use an unregulated gambling website which failed for eight years to follow the agreement that it made with the government"

lol.

[phpisthebest]

The number of logical fallacies at play are impressive, however I would like to address a couple of points

>>I find that people on HN frequently fail to understand that the law is a carefully crafted work by tens of thousands of professionals over centuries, that they almost cannot actually upgrade with a hot take.

Seems like you have a rather rose colored view, and fall into a Fallacy Of Expertise to believe that because the law was "crafted" over many years by "professionals" that is somehow makes it infallible, or correct, or anything other than what is is in reality.

Which in reality the law is a very flawed patchwork reactionary policies, regulations, rulings, and statutes all crafted by imperfect people many of which did not and do not have "the best interests" of the public in mind when they crafted them, instead have personal power, ego, or personal wealth at the center of their rational for invoking the regulation, ruling or statute into existence

I find it concerning that one would have such reverence for a clearly flawed, abusive, and often unethical institution such as "the law", there is nothing more unjust than the laws the come from "do-gooders" steeped false philanthropy attempting to tell us all what is best for us... What ever the noble origins (if there ever was any) in "the law" it has clearly been perverted by greed, ego, power, and false philanthropy

>"it's authoritarian hypocrisy that i can't use an unregulated gambling website which failed for eight years to follow the agreement that it made with the government"

It is authoritarian that one would need to seek permission from the government to run a website like PredictIT in the first place.

[JohnHaugeland]

> The number of logical fallacies at play are impressive

Stephen Bond says it better than I can: https://laurencetennant.com/bonds/bdksucks.html

.

> Seems like you have a rather rose colored view

Sorry, no, the law isn't my "view," it's just the law.

.

> and fall into a Fallacy Of Expertise to believe that because the law was "crafted" over many years by "professionals" that is somehow makes it infallible

I didn't say anything like this. I'm not sure why you think I did.

What I actually said was "people with no legal education who didn't even look up the original design aren't likely to understand things well enough to improve it."

People with actual legal educations who understand the design, of course, can. We make improvements every day.

.

> I find it concerning that one would have such reverence for a clearly flawed, abusive, and often unethical institution such as "the law"

I don't have any such reverence. You're criticizing things I never said and which do not correctly model my viewpoint.

I said "you guys didn't even read what this is about, why do you think you're improving it" and somehow from that you heard "the people who wrote this are perfect and flawless."

.

> there is nothing more unjust than the laws the come from "do-gooders" steeped false philanthropy

(blinks)

What?

These laws don't come from philanthropy. They mostly come from punishing casinos for cheating people.

Nobody said anything about noble do-gooders or philanthropy.

.

> It is authoritarian that one would need to seek permission from the government to run a website like PredictIT in the first place.

Well, no, that's ... that's just what government does, is make rules.

[phpisthebest]

>Well, no, that's ... that's just what government does, is make rules.

This right here highlights the core of the issue, this is exactly whey authoritarians like yourself, and non-authoritarians like myself have a hard time communicating

You can not fathom why anyone would question government authority, and I can not fathom why anyone would not question government authority.

Saying "that's just what government does, is make rules. " is an authoritarian position as well

To non-authoritarians, government authority has limits, its ability to "make rules" is narrowly defined to a very very limited scope.

To non-authoritarians the law should be simply the collective organization of individual rights, and the law shall have no authority beyond that which the individual would otherwise have the authority, the government is to do only what the individual forces have a natural and lawful right to do.

To non-authoritarians any law, regulation, or purpose of government that creeps beyond that is unethical.

>>People with actual legal educations who understand the design, of course, can. We make improvements every day.

This presumes that the original design is desirable and something that should be preserved, it also presumes that there was an "original design" and that everyone that has meddled in the law since has taken the "original design" to heart and faithfully applied that to all future changes, both are provably and demonstrably false assumptions especially in the context of the US legal system which is been fundamentally altered from the original design to no longer have any real connection to that original design

>These laws don't come from philanthropy

Almost all regulatory agencies and the regulations they produce are done so under the premise of philanthropy. I fail to see how these regulations are any different.

[samatman]

No one will read your tedious screed about the delicious taste of the hobnailed boot.

[JohnHaugeland]

Nobody said anything about the flavor of boots.

I wonder if you realize the source of that phrase. That would be quite a remarkable reference if you made it on purpose.

A screed is a long discourse between two people - typically 20+ pages, whereas this was about a quarter of one - which is taken from a larger work. This isn't a screed, although people who learn from the Google robot-written definition might think that it is.

If you didn't read, it's not clear why you replied. Good day.

[JoshCole]

Theft isn't people coming together for the purpose of aligning incentives so as to share information with each other while remaining rational. This has far more in common with Truth than it does with Theft. First and foremost, because it was by agreement that they entered into the arrangement - none were forced. Second and also motivating it, because losses are taken in hope: that a better understanding of the underlying conditions is obtained by the whole of the community which is of benefit to even the losing participant.

[Kamq]

> just because you choose to assign it some other emotional value doesn't change that the core purpose is illegal

The comment you're replying to is an argument that it should be legal. It's current status as illegal is not a counterargument.

[JohnHaugeland]

> It's current status as illegal is not a counterargument.

It's like when vegans try to stop you in the grocery store for eating meat, which they say is murder.

It's actually not murder. That's just an emotional value they choose to assign, and I'm not going to jail for my hamburger.

They might tell me that "it's legal isn't a counterargument," but actually, it is.

The comment made claims that something that's illegal should be legal because some people using it understand things through it.

That doesn't really make sense to me. Pick any gross crime, then claim the criminal is using that crime to understand things. It's pretty easy to do this through burglary stories about assembling evidence, or vigilantism stories.

Should that suddenly be legal, due to their motivation? I don't think so, personally.

The law also doesn't.

Nobody looking at this situation has even started from first principles and said "why is unregulated gambling illegal?"

It's actually not very hard to answer that, and the rest falls neatly into place from there.

[Kamq]

> They might tell me that "it's legal isn't a counterargument," but actually, it is.

The difference here is that this is a category argument, that is to say it's an argument about what is, whereas the argument about legality is about what should be. Arguments about what is vs arguments about what ought to be are very different things.

Additionally, murder generally has a component of crime associated with it, this is why other forms of killing that are government sanctioned also generally don't fall into this category (e.g. killing during war and government sanctioned executions are generally not murder). The legal status is a fairly decent argument that it belongs in a different category, unless you want to invoke natural law.

But, we should note, that the harvesting of meat is currently legal is a terrible counter argument to an argument that it should be illegal. The current legal status of something is immaterial to an argument about what it should be. If it were a good counter argument, we'd never be able to criminalize anything and we'd never be able to legalize anything that was currently illegal. This is, I suppose, fine if you consider every law to be timelessly perfect, and the system of laws to be complete and never need changing. However, I've never met anyone who believes such a thing.

> Should that suddenly be legal, due to their motivation? I don't think so, personally.

You find the argument, personally, unconvincing. That's fine, and a perfectly legitimate position to take. I also assume it's the majority position within society. But, it doesn't make current conditions relevant to a conversations about how they ought to be.

[JohnHaugeland]

> The difference here is that this is a category argument

Yes, that is the nature of legality, and not actually a problem in any way.

Let's try to simplify this without hiding behind any half-correctly used thesaurus words, shall we?

1) It's illegal for a reason

2) Things don't stop being illegal just because someone wants them

.

> the harvesting of meat is currently legal is a terrible counter argument to an argument that it should be illegal

You seem to spend a lot of time presuming that someone needs a counterargument.

You haven't made a successful argument yet, and even if you did, it doesn't hold any kind of weight.

When someone explains to you why they aren't very interested in what you said, and your response is "that isn't a valid counter-argument," the net result is that they still won't be very interested in what you said, and the illegal thing remains illegal.

If you want to talk about category arguments, start here: why do you feel that commentary on social media is inherently deserving of weight, and at what point does your failure to garner interest take precedence over whatever your position may be?

.

> You find the argument, personally, unconvincing.

Literally all of society does. This gets discovered every day by someone who really, really wants to explain why the law shouldn't apply to them.

Tassles on the admiralty flag, and all of that.

.

> But, it doesn't make current conditions relevant to a conversations about how they ought to be.

I'm not sure why you believe your statements on your opinions of what "ought" to be should bear weight on what is nationally legal.

[Kamq]

> You seem to spend a lot of time presuming that someone needs a counterargument.

Nope. I even said explicitly that just finding an argument unconvincing was enough.

> When someone explains to you why they aren't very interested in what you said, and your response is "that isn't a valid counter-argument," the net result is that they still won't be very interested in what you said, and the illegal thing remains illegal.

Ahh, I see the misunderstanding here. You think I want betting on political events to be legal. I don't particularly care that much about that issue. Though I do tend to lean towards legal by default (pretty sure this is standard liberal policy), you can have this one if you feel particularly strong about it. I want weird internet nerds (decent percentage on this site) to have higher quality arguments.

> why do you feel that commentary on social media is inherently deserving of weight

I don't. Arguing with people on the internet is an entertaining pass-time.

> I'm not sure why you believe your statements on your opinions of what "ought" to be should bear weight on what is nationally legal.

I haven't made any arguments about what should or should not be legal yet. Also the is/ought divide isn't a thing I'm inventing here, it's an old problem defined by Hume (convenience link: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Is%E2%80%93ought_problem )

[JoshCole]

> I'm not sure why you believe your statements on your opinions of what "ought" to be should bear weight on what is nationally legal.

Do you not live in the US? I'm not sure why you would be confused about this. It seems like a silly thing to be confused by.

> Literally all of society does.

This is false.

> why do you feel that commentary on social media is inherently deserving of weight, and at what point does your failure to garner interest take precedence over whatever your position may be?

It was made by humans who have inherent worth which I take to be self-evident? And it did garner the interest I was hoping for - I got answers from kinder people than you who explained things to me in easily understood sentences that I found no flaw with. Ctrl+F "thank". Actually even the idea of garnering interest as the important thing seems kind of suspect to me. That small interaction got the least interest out of all that I've said - yet is the one I'm most glad to have made. I would not be greatly saddened if the only interaction I had was with that single post.

[JoshCole]

Appeal to grossness is fallacious. Describing a different situation and claiming it is the same while not having congruent properties is an abuse of abstraction. The substitution method for logically reasoning by analogy is only as strong as the similarity between the situations. This is why I consider the argument refuted when I show that there isn't alignment between Theft - a gross crime - and participation in a betting market, something that people enter into by mutual consent and with hope. The lack of congruence makes the argument fundamentally lacking in validity.

For more on why this I find this to be bad reasoning by analogy see things of this nature:

https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/reasoning-analogy/#ForCri...

When the argument moves to the appeal to the law it is also fallacious, for there is not one law, but many. That law is different in different places: in this case in particular it is not the case that the law is universally against betting markets. There are places where it is legal. Moreover the law changes over time. Even in our locational context when you vary time you will find that there were periods in which betting markets were not illegal.

Even beyond that the law regularly allows nuance when it encounters interaction with political concerns: to kill for your country in war is legal, but to do the same outside that political contest is not. To enforce justice in the context of law enforcement is not legal except by those who are appointed. Yet to do so unappointed is not. In democracies since every person is appointed to be a part of the political body such that they vote to influence policies they all have a mandate that allows them to engage in politics - this supersedes the usual laws for much the same reason that a policeman because he has a mandate as a policeman has the right to do things that would be illegal for non-policeman to do.

I want to point out something that seems worthy of attention to me to hopefully reduce your confidence in the strength of the argument. When the argument you advanced says things like this:

> Nobody looking at this situation has even started from first principles and said "why is unregulated gambling illegal?"

The argument did not build up to them. It is not justifying them. They are non-sequiturs. It reads as if it thinks the reasoning is very strong and obviously correct such that it comes across as quite dismissive, but just because an argument contains a word like convincing doesn't mean the structure has the property of being convincing.

To stress how tortured the arguments analogy is - there are gross crimes for which it is legal on the basis that they are used to understand things. What is called homocide when it kills someone outside medical research and what is called the crime of animal cruelty when it is done outside medical research is not equivalent when it is done in the context of medical research.

Admittedly this is not an argument against regulation, but then - I never said it should be unregulated - I asked why we allow the oppression of political discussion in this circumstance.

That the argument includes things like "nobody looking at this situation has even started from first principles" and asked obvious questions does not convince me of the position that the argument asks me to take on. It convinces me that people ought to ask those questions instead of assuming the answers. Except - it doesn't truly do even that, because I consider the claim that no one has ever asked the obvious questions to be a false premise.

[JohnHaugeland]

> Appeal to grossness is fallacious.

I've already said this once in this thread. Stephen Bond says it better than I can: https://laurencetennant.com/bonds/bdksucks.html

[JoshCole]

To try and help you understand by analogy, since you've shown you like them: I'm telling you that I find you to be comparing King Heart and Queen Heart to Two Spade and Three Clubs. I'm telling you that the analogy doesn't hold because the properties aren't the same. If you disagree that your analogy is sound you need to share more of your analogy construction so that I can see how you arrived at it. For example if you have the cards King Heart and Queen Heart you can reason by analogy about King Heart and Queen Heart when working with King Diamond and Queen Diamond because the transitional structure for outcomes is the same as you move between each suit. Or in the case of tic tac toe, if you rotate the board, you can argue that the transitional structure terminates in the same outcomes and so the board under the rotation is the same as the board not under rotation. What you are doing in your defense is like saying "KH and QH are the same as 2S and 3S because Elieizer Yudowsky once said that many people didn't think rationally." Perhaps he did, but that doesn't mean you are right and it certainty doesn't convince me you are right.

When you quoted someone else you replaced their words with words they did not say, but intentionally lower-cased an "I" as if to imply they were both stupid and also subhuman. I found this really disgusting. Why did you do that? And why did you laugh at them for words they didn't speak? I call this to your attention, because you in other places comment about how polite you are being. The level of politeness you have shown is not very high. I generally expect young children to exceed it and would be disappointed with them if they failed to do so.