[motohagiography]

While I am a fan of prediction markets, I understood the main argument against them is that they create perverse incentives for people to engage in extreme acts to profit from the outcomes.

I wanted to create markets for things like individual airline flight delay insurance, and a futures market for airline tickets, but all of these are regulated as futures with the same barriers to entry that protect stock exchanges, and there are some rules in insurance about not being able to take out insurance on someone elses' property for related reasons. It's a moral hazard. Betting on politics appears to be framed in similar terms, but the counter arguments would be interesting as well.

I gave up on prediction markets years ago, but if there were a darkweb prediction market for smart contract cryptocurrencies, that would be the most subversively interesting thing to become real in a while.

[inglor_cz]

"they create perverse incentives for people to engage in extreme acts to profit from the outcomes"

So does the very existence of the media, which will amplify any sufficiently gross act of violence to the global auditorium that would otherwise never hear of it, rewarding the culprit with their 15 minutes of fame and possibly inspiring others to do the same.

That isn't a reason to censor journalists, though.

[theptip]

> I understood the main argument against them is that they create perverse incentives for people to engage in extreme acts to profit from the outcomes.

Is that the line of reasoning CFTC is using though?

> if there were a darkweb prediction market

I think this is Polymarket / Gnosis right? Or are you looking for something more obfuscated?

[saurik]

> if there were a darkweb prediction market for smart contract cryptocurrencies

Assuming you mean "using" instead of "for", isn't this Augur? (That said, I haven't used Augur personally; maybe it sucks.) Building prediction markets is one of the more common and older projects for crypto.

[boring_twenties]

There is/was a decentralized prediction market called Augur, on the Ethereum blockchain. I had a lot of fun with it in the v1 days, but after it was replaced to v2 I stopped using it, and I'm pretty sure everyone else did, too.

[John_sm]

I am using the prediction market Futuur, I advise a lot, serious company, several markets on the most diverse topics, I'm making easy money there monthly!

[aaaaaaaaata]

Why?

[jjoonathan]

> darkweb prediction market

Dammit, I had forgotten about the whole "hire a hitman while pretending to just make predictions" thing. It probably isn't just a spooky theory anymore :/