[btilly]

You absolutely DON'T understand what is going on there.

The President of Ukraine is one of those Russian speaking Ukrainians that you're talking about. Why don't you ask him whether he would prefer to be part of Ukraine or Russia?

According to polls, Russian speaking Ukrainians overwhelmingly want to be in an independent Ukraine. And the longer the fighting goes on, the stronger that support gets. Strip away Russian propaganda, and "Russian speaking Ukrainians want to be in Russia" turns out to be a fantasy.

It is likewise only in Russian propaganda that Ukraine was looking to get nukes, or was on a course to join NATO. The "breakaway republics" in fact were invaded by Russia in 2014. Yes, the "green men" weren't wearing their Russian military insignia, but nobody was actually fooled. And satellite photos confirmed that the artillery was being fired from Russian territory. See https://iphronline.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/Joint-repo... if you doubt me.

I'm not happy with everything we did involving Euromaiden. But Russia had set a democratically elected leader on a course to take over and become a Russia-friendly dictator. Ukraine need look no farther than Belarus to see how that story turns out. Describing it as the overthrow of a democratic regime is at best a half-truth. Probably no more than a quarter truth.

When it comes to legal issues, Russia HAS no legal ground other than a military, a willingness to lie, and other people's unwillingness to confront them.

Let's talk about the whole Nazi thing. It is true that the Azov battalion started as white supremacists, and got absorbed into Ukraine's military. (Then toned down the whole white supremacist thing a lot.) However this problem exists on both sides, and there are likely more white supremacists fighting on the Russian side than the Ukrainian. If this comes as a surprise to you, start with https://www.rferl.org/a/russian-neo-nazis-fighting-ukraine/3... for some of the basics. Worse yet, Russia has actively solicited, and received, international support from white supremacist organizations. Supporters like Steve Bannon opened doors, and are part of how we have Russian propaganda being spewed over Fox News by people like Steve Hannity.

Despite Russian rhetoric about "denazification", it is Russia that has sought out and obtained support from neo-Nazis and those sympathetic to them.

And so we see that again and again, you are consistently misinformed. You've swallowed Russian propaganda on issue after issue. This is in addition to your unwillingness to call a spade a spade and recognize Russian genocide as what it is.

[mythrwy]

Ok, so the breakaway Republics secretly wish to join the West but Dennis Pushilin is holding them hostage. Ridiculous.

I would advise against compounded the many many bad moves that have been made so far but it's free world.

What I stated is historical and geopolitical fact. Without (near as I can tell) much bias. It's not propaganda, it's the truth. Yes, Russia has traditionally been an expansionist power. Yes, they are looking for advantage.

But a whole lot of ethnic hatred and stupidity and Western involvement has made this even easier for them.

[btilly]

It is so ridiculous that you can read https://www.jhuapl.edu/Content/documents/ARIS_LittleGreenMen... for an unclassified report from the US government about Russia's disinformation campaign and the Russian special forces with no insignia who showed up and got the nickname "little green men".

You can read https://www.files.ethz.ch/isn/193514/Nuclear%20Backed%20%E2%... for a Polish report on the same, and how Russia used nuclear posturing to keep the world from more emphatically calling Russia on its brazen lies.

Apparently the conclusions of multiple organizations, ranging from widely respected NGOs to national governments, seem ridiculous to you. That does not mean that they are ridiculous. It merely means that you've accepted a dose of Russian disinformation. Which they've been very competent at packaging.

But no, you just keep repeating propaganda lines and claiming that sourced statements are ridiculous. While offering no sources for your claims, and ignoring a variety of sources that you have been provided.

Lies do not become fact merely by being repeated enough. And Russian lies about spontaneous uprisings and Ukrainian atrocities do not become fact simply because you can't accept that those uprisings were conducted by Russian soldiers, and the shelling of Ukrainian civilians in 2014 began with Russian artillery operating on Russian territory. Confirmed by ballistics, satellite photos, and testimony from the people who were shelled.

Sources that you currently believe which say otherwise should be viewed with suspicion. Because they are lying to you.

[mythrwy]

There are no breakaway republics? The majority of people in Crimea did not wish to rejoin Russia? All people on what is (formerly now) Ukraine territory were happy with the post coup Ukrainian government? Is that what you are saying?

If not, what exactly of my point do you take issue with? The claims on Russia geo strategical intent? The history of invasions into Russia through Ukraine in fairly recent times? That Crimea is not historically Russian?

These are all facts my friend. Not propaganda.

I wish you would take a more rational and less emotional view of the situation but I can't say I'd do differently in your circumstance. I am concerned where the irrationality leads however. It has so far caused nothing but trouble for Ukraine. And the trouble is spreading.

[_kbh_]

> There are no breakaway republics?.

There are Russian backed terrorists that are temporarily occupying Ukrainian territory, these terrorists shot down a civilian airliner and killed hundreds.

> The majority of people in Crimea did not wish to rejoin Russia?

Theres no been no real referendums so we will never, but the partisan posters that keep appearing in Crimea would suggest that no the majority dont want to join Russia.

> All people on what is (formerly now) Ukraine territory were happy with the post coup Ukrainian government? Is that what you are saying?

All the people on occupied Ukrainian territory may not be happy with the government they may also not be happy be conscripted by the FSB backed terrorist occupiers either to fight against their brothers. But it doesn't matter because not everyone needs to support a government for it to be legitimate.

> These are all facts my friend. Not propaganda.

None of these are facts.

> I wish you would take a more rational and less emotional view of the situation but I can't say I'd do differently in your circumstance. I am concerned where the irrationality leads however. It has so far caused nothing but trouble for Ukraine. And the trouble is spreading.

The most rational view of this situation is to send the heaviest weapons possible to Ukraine, because the only rational way this ends is with a lot of dead Russian soldiers, and that needs to happen as soon as possible.

[btilly]

One correction. The partisan posters suggest that there are people who are strongly against the Russian occupation. But actual polling says that there probably was strong majority support within Crimea for rejoining Russia. After 8 years of Russian propaganda, I would bet that the actual support is now higher. People become (at least temporarily) loyal to their abusers. It is not unlike Stockholm syndrome, and is often seen after, for instance, domestic violence.

See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Crimean_status_referendum... for more.

[mythrwy]

The denial of reality has not been working very well so far for you. Neither has the craziness and hostility. At what point do you realize this? When you have no coastline and another 100K dead? Or will it take millions in big urban centers and widespread starvation?

[btilly]

Claims that I'm denying reality by someone who clearly is denying reality lacks any sting.

Examples.

- Offering well-sourced factual claims is not craziness.

- I'm not Ukrainian. I assure you that the California coast is not under any current threat.

- The military facts on the ground say that Russia cannot successfully take much more territory than it already has, and is extremely unlikely to be able to sustain what it has already taken.

- You are continuing to ignore the very real issues that I raised about genocide, etc.

Here is a fact for you to consider. Russia lost the Cold War in part because they didn't have the economy to be a counterweight to the USA. And economic trends have not gone in their favor. By GDP, Russia last year was only slightly more important than Florida. Thanks to sanctions, they are rapidly reducing in geopolitical importance. Not fast enough, I grant. But they aren't in a sustainable position.

[_kbh_]

The denial of reality? The reality is that Russia failed miserably at there noted first goal (regime change in Ukraine) suffered such a resounding loss that they withdrew there army from a axis of the war because they where being decimated.

Keep in mind Kyiv is only 50km from the border with Russia, and Russia failed to take it. This was has less been about a denial of reality and really been about seeing just how much a paper tiger the Russian armed forces are, turns out they are worse then pretty much anyone expected.

If Russia is doing so well why are there own propagandist and military complaining about how well Ukraine is striking there C&C and ammo depots?.

Why has Russia made so little gains in the past two weeks?.

Russia has already failed the only question is how badly there loses get before they leave.

That’s the question, how many dead Russian soldiers, how many more ships from the Black Sea fleet have to sink, how many more helicopters and planes have to crash and how many more tanks need to cook off?.

> Or will it take millions in big urban centers and widespread starvation?

The intentional starvation of urban centres certainly sounds like genocide to me, and you really have to ask yourself what kind of capable military acts like this?. Russian threatens because it’s there only option, if they could they would of taken Ukraine already.

[btilly]

You are not even be attempting to discuss this in good faith. You attribute ridiculous statements to me, such as that the breakaway republics do not exist, and there was universal support in Ukraine for Euromaiden, just so you have something to argue against. You throw complex topics such as the Crimea referendum out there. (For the record, the 97% support that Russia claimed is clearly false, but a majority support is probably true. See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Crimean_status_referendum for more.) And then you disingenuously ask that if I don't disagree with these, which do I disagree with?

Meanwhile you continue to avoid calling Russian genocide by its proper name. You continue to claim that Russia had legal justification. You continue to deny the truth of Russian actions, and continue to blame Ukraine's situation on the West rather than on the country doing the invading.

The truth is that it is a tragedy that Ukrainians are faced with the choice of fighting for their sovereignty or submitting to a genocidal Russian oppression. The record of Russian rule being terrible is supported by extensive history, current events, and ongoing Russian policy. By contrast the specter of Germany launching another invasion through Ukraine is rather ridiculous given the current culture of the German people and government. And Russia wore that excuse rather thin after using it to justify decades of tyranny over the Eastern Bloc during the cold war.

I wish you would portray my position honestly, engage with the truth of Russian crimes, and start accepting facts. I also wish you wouldn't support a genocidal dictatorship.

[mythrwy]

There is no sense in continuing to discuss it. I've made may point. I wish the best for the Ukrainians.

But from what I see they might be in even worse trouble then I had thought. We might be as well.

There is no genocide (yet anyway and hopefully ever). Please stop using hyperbole. It does your point no favors.

[_kbh_]

> But from what I see they might be in even worse trouble then I had thought. We might be as well

Whilst it’s obviously not all rainbows and sunshine for the Ukrainians you really refuse to admit that it only took 4 HIMARS to slam Russian logistics. 30 ammo depots and command and control points have been vaporised in a couple of weeks, and Russia has no counter.

> There is no genocide (yet anyway and hopefully ever). Please stop using hyperbole. It does your point no favors.

You can try and redefine the word genocide all you want, but that does not change the fact that the Russians are committing genocide in Ukraine per them UN definition of the word.

[btilly]

The fact that you refuse to engage with, for example, an official report from the US state department DOCUMENTING genocide, does not make calling Russias crimes genocide hyperbole.

That said, I agree that further conversation is useless. At this point it should be obvious to anyone reading the thread that I try to source my facts, and report on what is true whether or not I like said facts. It should also be clear that you fail to engage with either facts or sources which do not agree with your world view. And your world view has been heavily shaped by Russian disinformation campaigns.

My final word is that I condemn you for believing and then wanting to appease a genocidal dictator. While refusing to engage with documented evidence of the many crimes that he is lying about.

Feel free to respond however you like. I'm done with this conversation.