[_kbh_]

> There are no breakaway republics?.

There are Russian backed terrorists that are temporarily occupying Ukrainian territory, these terrorists shot down a civilian airliner and killed hundreds.

> The majority of people in Crimea did not wish to rejoin Russia?

Theres no been no real referendums so we will never, but the partisan posters that keep appearing in Crimea would suggest that no the majority dont want to join Russia.

> All people on what is (formerly now) Ukraine territory were happy with the post coup Ukrainian government? Is that what you are saying?

All the people on occupied Ukrainian territory may not be happy with the government they may also not be happy be conscripted by the FSB backed terrorist occupiers either to fight against their brothers. But it doesn't matter because not everyone needs to support a government for it to be legitimate.

> These are all facts my friend. Not propaganda.

None of these are facts.

> I wish you would take a more rational and less emotional view of the situation but I can't say I'd do differently in your circumstance. I am concerned where the irrationality leads however. It has so far caused nothing but trouble for Ukraine. And the trouble is spreading.

The most rational view of this situation is to send the heaviest weapons possible to Ukraine, because the only rational way this ends is with a lot of dead Russian soldiers, and that needs to happen as soon as possible.

[btilly]

One correction. The partisan posters suggest that there are people who are strongly against the Russian occupation. But actual polling says that there probably was strong majority support within Crimea for rejoining Russia. After 8 years of Russian propaganda, I would bet that the actual support is now higher. People become (at least temporarily) loyal to their abusers. It is not unlike Stockholm syndrome, and is often seen after, for instance, domestic violence.

See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Crimean_status_referendum... for more.

[mythrwy]

The denial of reality has not been working very well so far for you. Neither has the craziness and hostility. At what point do you realize this? When you have no coastline and another 100K dead? Or will it take millions in big urban centers and widespread starvation?

[btilly]

Claims that I'm denying reality by someone who clearly is denying reality lacks any sting.

Examples.

- Offering well-sourced factual claims is not craziness.

- I'm not Ukrainian. I assure you that the California coast is not under any current threat.

- The military facts on the ground say that Russia cannot successfully take much more territory than it already has, and is extremely unlikely to be able to sustain what it has already taken.

- You are continuing to ignore the very real issues that I raised about genocide, etc.

Here is a fact for you to consider. Russia lost the Cold War in part because they didn't have the economy to be a counterweight to the USA. And economic trends have not gone in their favor. By GDP, Russia last year was only slightly more important than Florida. Thanks to sanctions, they are rapidly reducing in geopolitical importance. Not fast enough, I grant. But they aren't in a sustainable position.

[mythrwy]

You haven't raised any real issues about genocide, which is farcical claim on it's face. Also, I'd think this obvious, I wasn't talking to you when referring to the Ukrainian poster.

Also I would not be so sure the coast of California is safe if this keeps going.

"By GDP". Ya ya ya. Debt based scripts being passed around from VCs and overpriced healthcare are actually the same as resources in hand. That scheme totally isn't going to blow up and there are perpetual motion machines.

"Thanks to sanctions". More denial of reality.

[_kbh_]

The denial of reality? The reality is that Russia failed miserably at there noted first goal (regime change in Ukraine) suffered such a resounding loss that they withdrew there army from a axis of the war because they where being decimated.

Keep in mind Kyiv is only 50km from the border with Russia, and Russia failed to take it. This was has less been about a denial of reality and really been about seeing just how much a paper tiger the Russian armed forces are, turns out they are worse then pretty much anyone expected.

If Russia is doing so well why are there own propagandist and military complaining about how well Ukraine is striking there C&C and ammo depots?.

Why has Russia made so little gains in the past two weeks?.

Russia has already failed the only question is how badly there loses get before they leave.

That’s the question, how many dead Russian soldiers, how many more ships from the Black Sea fleet have to sink, how many more helicopters and planes have to crash and how many more tanks need to cook off?.

> Or will it take millions in big urban centers and widespread starvation?

The intentional starvation of urban centres certainly sounds like genocide to me, and you really have to ask yourself what kind of capable military acts like this?. Russian threatens because it’s there only option, if they could they would of taken Ukraine already.

[btilly]

Correction. Kyiv is about 380 km from the Russian border. You're thinking of the Belarusian border. But Belarus and Russia are not (yet) one country.

[_kbh_]

That’s a fair point, but given they invaded via Belarus the original point stands (albeit corrected).

[btilly]

True. But their logistics were also stretched, and sabotage of railroads by Belarusian railway workers stretched it even farther.

This compounded the general fact that logistical troubles are one of the great weaknesses of the Russian military machine.