I think it is safe to assume that most/all (large) modern countries have paramilitary forces that are used to carefully tip the scales toward outcomes that are in their best interest in situations like these.
I don't think this is likely: the upside is small (can American GIs shoot anti-tank missiles better than Ukranian GIs?) and the downside is extremely large (nothing polls worse than Americans getting shipped home in boxes, and nothing would make Russia happier than to have actual proof of direct interference.)
> the downside is extremely large (nothing polls worse than Americans getting shipped home in boxes, and nothing would make Russia happier than to have actual proof of direct interference.)
I think this goes against everything we know about modern warfare. I'd bet money (1) Zelenskyy is being actively supported/coached by the CIA or MI6 (his PR/propaganda game has been absolutely on point), (2) there are covert-ops teams in Ukraine that are assisting the rag-tag paramilitary and civilian groups with advanced urban warfare tactics (e.g. demolishing bridges, improvised armaments, etc.), and (3) the Kremlin is correct that NATO/US UAVs are relaying detailed Russian troop/ship movements back to Ukranian leadership.
You've mashed a whole bunch of things together here.
Is Zelenskyy receiving foreign intelligence from NATO? That wouldn't surprise me.
Is NATO (or separately the US) flying drones over Ukraine for intelligence gathering? That's a step further, but it doesn't seem impossible.
Are there US/British/etc. nationals in Ukraine, doing their own protective sabotage/engaging directly with the enemy? I find this very difficult to believe, for the reasons stated in the previous comment.
"Modern warfare" means a whole bunch of things, including that Ukrainian soldiers don't need months of training to operate the push-button munitions that NATO has dumped on them. NATO has dozens of options to exhaust before doing something as risky as directly inserting foreign soldiers into a war they're not involved in on paper.
> Are there US/British/etc. nationals in Ukraine, doing their own protective sabotage/engaging directly with the enemy? I find this very difficult to believe, for the reasons stated in the previous comment.
Why do you think black ops in Ukraine is beyond the pale (technically even intelligence support kind of drags NATO into this)? I agree with you that they are probably instructed to not directly engage with the Russians, but sabotage and training doesn't really seem that far fetched to me, although..
> including that Ukrainian soldiers don't need months of training to operate the push-button munitions that NATO has dumped on them
..this is actually a great point. With Javelins and NLAWs that just about anyone in this thread could use against tanks and helis effectively, maybe they don't need any on-ground assistance.
Yeah, it's basically just that: Ukraine's armed forces are better equipped to identify and protect/defensively sabotage their own country's infrastructure than NATO would be, and everything NATO has given them shouldn't require training that they can't do themselves (if any is needed at all).
But it's all just speculation on my part! That's what HN does best, after all.
>I'd bet money (1) Zelenskyy is being actively supported/coached by the CIA or MI6 (his PR/propaganda game has been absolutely on point),
Oh man is it ever. Dont know who exactly, but ya no doubt getting coached.
>2) there are covert-ops teams in Ukraine that are assisting the rag-tag paramilitary and civilian groups with advanced urban warfare tactics (e.g. demolishing bridges, improvised armaments, etc.), a
I suspect language barriers would prevent much work together here.
What I have been seeing, there are tons of videos of 'aftermaths' where russians took tons of losses but nothing else. I would expect the spec ops took out the russians and just moved on. They are largely speaking just looking at intel and intercepting ground troops.
>(3) the Kremlin is correct that NATO/US UAVs are relaying detailed Russian troop/ship movements back to Ukranian leadership.
You can confirm this yourself on various ADSB tracking maps. Dont forget geo spy sattelites. The russian troops are tracked in real time. They are sitting ducks who haven't even seen true resistance yet.
There's been some groups raising independent fighting forces in Syria and Chechnya, but I don't think they've gotten to Ukraine yet. Ukraine has been actively recruiting Westerners who have been willing to fight since 2014 as well.
>There's been some groups raising independent fighting forces in Syria and Chechnya, but I don't think they've gotten to Ukraine yet. Ukraine has been actively recruiting Westerners who have been willing to fight since 2014 as well.
I have seen this, roughly 20,000 strong. But they have been specfically instructed to only shoot at nazis. That general ukrainian troops aren't allies, but they are not allowed to kill them.
>I’ve been following this closely and I haven’t seen any mention of non-Ukrainian forces in the country. Seems like pure speculation?
Absolutely pure speculation.
We never know what the navy seals or the green berets or the french dragoons, etc etc are doing. Everyone has many divisions of specops. Seal team 6 were the ones who very illegally operated within pakistan to kill osama bin laden.
Now im not interested debating the legality here. Im just pointing out, they operate wherever the hell they please. I would bet any amount of money specops of all major countries are in ukraine right now. Not 100% of the allies of ukraine and certainly not 0%.
I'd also bet there are constant very high res spy sattelites mapping every step of every russian soldier. You can actively see the global hawks operating. You can actively see the awacs in the air.
NATO response force is active and at the border. Those dude are going to be damn near if not as well trained as specops.
Like, being realistic, Russia already lost the war and they dont realize it.
The thing that got me thinking about this. Spetsnaz blue berets airdropped into that international airport, they took it. Spetsnaz are legit and well trained... and they were routed within the day? I dont believe it. I do believe it when I consider specops from across the world came in and wrecked their face.
I doubt this really - I think it is much more likely that in the past few months specops from other countries were in Ukraine training the hell out of Ukrainian soldiers. I guess I would not be surprised if individual countries that bordered Russia / Ukraine had limited people in the area but the potential political fallout would be huge if the UK for example was caught operating in the country while publicly saying they are not.
Private for hire mercenary groups though who knows