[mythrwy]

An understanding that dealing with super complex systems with lots of interacting variables are very hard to accurately model and prediction value is likely to be low?

Plus maybe just a general distaste for propaganda.

For my own part I believe humans are affecting the climate to some extent. I don't see how anything else would be possible.

But I'm early 50's and have been watching this closely for 30 years and don't believe the hype and doomsday predictions anymore. I don't think the models are good enough to say what will happen in sum. Should we get off fossil fuels and stop polluting? Yes as fast as practically possible. Is OMG the world ending oceans collapsing 12 years from now? Probably not and they don't actually know that.

[moistly]

> But I'm early 50's and have been watching this closely for 30 years

Likewise. And what I’ve noted is that the IPCC’s optimistic predictions keep proving far too optimistic, and their worse-outcome predictions keep coming true, sooner than predicted.

I also see corporations that are loathe to change suddenly make commitments to change, and to make those changes pretty quickly. To my eyes, that is a big indication that things have started going well off the rails.

I’m not looking forward to having to handle the wheels falling off of society in my senior years as crop failures, infrastructure collapse, and social unrest kick into high gear.

[mythrwy]

That's really strange, I'm curious what you have seen in the last 30 years that makes you feel catastrophe is more imminent (climate wise, not social or geopolitical, we probably agree that is off the rails lol).

The polar ice caps were predicted to be gone. Still there. Coral reef collapse. They are flourishing. Massive rapid sea level rise. Very small, unnoticeable without measuring equipment. Increase in extreme weather events. Hasn't happened.

In short, things aren't a whole lot different then they were 30 years ago. I realize 30 years isn't that long but still, there were some really extreme predictions (and I was worried) but they don't look to be coming to pass and I don't think they will for the next 30 either.

[moistly]

The polar ice caps were at the lowest volume ever in 2017, and have broken records continuously this past decade or so: “Still there” is a disingenuous dismissal of their morbid condition. http://psc.apl.uw.edu/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/schweiger...

The coral reefs are collapsing. To claim otherwise is simply ludicrous. https://www.cell.com/one-earth/fulltext/S2590-3322(21)00474-...

Sea levels are rising an eighth of an inch a year, and over 2 ½ inches this past forty years. This is noticeable. https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/sealevel.html

Extreme weather events have doubled in the past two decades. https://e360.yale.edu/digest/extreme-weather-events-have-inc...

You are deeply uninformed.

[mythrwy]

Extreme weather events haven't doubled in the past two decades. That is ludicrous. Additionally the article you link doesn't even say that.

Neither are the coral reefs collapsing.

https://www.royalgazette.com/environment/news/article/202108...

(btw this claims sea level rise is less then 1/10 of an inch year, not 1/8).

Great Barrier reef has record levels of coral this year.

I've personally observed many sections of the second largest reef in Mexico/Belize within the past few years and the corral are healthy with many young corral and look pretty much as they did when I first saw them 30 years ago.

The reefs are not collapsing. This is reality, not propaganda, not the output of theoretical models. How do you square this with some of the more extreme predictions? It is very interesting how we both have watched over the same time period and see different things apparently.

I don't believe I'm uninformed at all. I just don't believe the hype anymore.

[moistly]

You have no idea what you’re on about. You should have indicated that you’re a denier, and saved me this waste of time. Good luck.

[mythrwy]

Naw, these are facts and what I've observed. My position was implicit from the first and if you didn't observe it I guess I understand not observing what has happened in the real world as opposed to what was predicted to happen in 1991.

There is a lot hype and propaganda but hey, you have me neatly categorized as a denier, now you can safely ignore facts that don't square with your chosen ideology and go on about your week.

If you are really 50+ and have been paying attention the whole time I have no clue how you could not have some cognitive dissonance. The models weren't accurate. The extreme predictions didn't come to pass.

Catastrophe is not imminent and both of us will die with the earth pretty much as it is now to the naked eye climatewise.

[tejohnso]

> The polar ice caps were predicted to be gone

By when? Lots of climate hyperbole is focused on the year 2100 for some reason so perhaps that's what you had in mind. Anyway, not completely gone yet, but I can point out the following since I have it handy here:

July 2020: The last intact ice shelf in the Canadian Arctic fell into the sea

"We have already lost the frozen Arctic"

https://thehill.com/opinion/energy-environment/583115-climat...

> Increase in extreme weather events. Hasn't happened.

Are you just making shit up? According to the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction, extreme events are up 74% for 2000 to 2019 vs 1980 - 1999. And "Much of the difference is explained by a rise in climate-related disasters including extreme weather events: from 3,656 climate-related events (1980-1999) to 6,681 climate-related disasters in the period 2000-2019. And "The last twenty years have seen the number of major floods more than double, from 1,389 to 3,254, while the incidence of storms grew from 1,457 to 2,034. Floods and storms were the most prevalent events."

https://www.undrr.org/publication/human-cost-disasters-overv...

Also, shipping lanes opening up in the arctic for longer duration now. And of course Russia and US are considering more drilling now that it's feasible, in case anyone was confused about any real change in policy / mindset.

[mythrwy]

http://www.stormfax.com/huryear.htm

I don't see a clear trend in number of hurricanes. Sorry. I'd have to look at how "extreme events" were ascertained (hopefully not cherry picked) in the 2 20 year periods by the UN article you link.

I just don't see, from casual observation, an increase in floods and storms over when I was a child. Maybe it exists and I just am not picking it up but it's not "double" and the storms are certainly not worse.

I do understand the sea ice in the Arctic has been shrinking for some time. Paradoxically it's not in the Antarctic. This could be partially due to warming (which I agree exists, no argument). It could also be due to dark soot accumulation on the snow/ice to some extent causing more rapid melting.

This is what I'm talking about. This kind of thing.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7139797.stm

[tejohnso]

> This is what I'm talking about. This kind of thing.

I see. I suspect there would have been a lot of similar articles around that time. Maslowski made that projection in 2007, a year when there was a huge drop in extent minimum over the previous year, and following successive years of lower minima before a recovery in 2008. He made the same mistake during the 2012 record minimum year (which is still the record minimum year), predicting ice free summers by 2016 if I recall correctly. He has since continued his research, but no longer makes these kinds of predictions.

So yes, sometimes there are overly aggressive projections and or outright mistakes, and on top of that there is hyperbole with the media going for the most extreme headline possible. But the fact that some predictions are overly aggressive doesn't mean the situation isn't serious. All trends based on measurement (not projection) are showing the cryosphere is in serious trouble. Glaciers are melting, permafrost is turning out to be not so "perma".