[07d046]

> I think the reason you see so many EV announcements from Ford (and GM and Honda and Mercedes and...) in 2021 is because they all suddenly realized they need to press a panic button.

Alternatively, maybe because the traditional manufacturers timed the critical point where it made economic sense to focus on electric cars in the same way?

[SmellTheGlove]

Also, if Ford hit a panic button and produced the F150 Lightning, keep pressing that button, it's working.

[marvin]

They're skating towards where the puck is, not where the puck will be. I believe it's impossible to win this kind of technological race without appearing to be early. So my prediction is most of them will fail.

You might be correct if the "critical point" arriving meant that established manufacturers could just buy the cost-and-performance-critical parts of EV manufacturing in volume, at low cost, from their suppliers as they're used to. But they can't, because the advancements that make this the right time are not sold on the open market. Getting there requires at least five years of R&D and billions invested, and in that time their competitors will have advanced further.

This outcome isn't obvious yet, so I might still be wrong, but that's where my money would be. I suppose that purchasing one of the startups working on this is a more promising option, but I'm not at all convinced.

[clouddrover]

> I believe it's impossible to win this kind of technological race without appearing to be early. So my prediction is most of them will fail.

Tesla used to be the biggest BEV manufacturer in Europe. But now in 2021 Tesla is number 3:

https://eu-evs.com/bestSellers/ALL/Groups/Year/2021

It's not as though the world's biggest car companies are going to forget how to make cars.

[simondotau]

This is largely because Tesla is supply constrained and they’ve chosen to prioritise fulfilling of orders in the USA which are more profitable. When Berlin Model Y production kicks off at the end of the year, the story might well change.

At the end of the day, regional sales numbers are irrelevant. The number that matters is global sales.

[clouddrover]

So you're saying Volkswagen sells more because they build more cars? Like Volkswagen's got expertise in car manufacturing or something? Maybe that's why they're the second biggest car manufacturer globally.

[marvin]

Does Volkswagen currently produce and sell more (pure) electric cars than Tesla? As GP said, regional sales numbers are irrelevant.

The established manufacturers obviously know how to make cars, but are behind on battery cells, packs, drivetrains and software. That VW currently out-delivers Tesla in some markets is not a rebuttal.

If they’re actually out-producing and outselling them globally, that would be an interesting development.

[clouddrover]

> That VW currently out-delivers Tesla in some markets is not a rebuttal

They've taken over the biggest EV market from Tesla. That hardly fits the narrative of it being "impossible to win this kind of technological race". Look at the trend:

https://eu-evs.com/bestSellersCharts/ALL/Groups/Line-Cumulat...

Year by year they will continue transitioning to EVs:

https://www.volkswagen-newsroom.com/en/press-releases/volksw...

The case that the big car companies won't remain big car companies is flimsy at best. It's a product of wishful thinking more than practical realities.