[marvin]

They're skating towards where the puck is, not where the puck will be. I believe it's impossible to win this kind of technological race without appearing to be early. So my prediction is most of them will fail.

You might be correct if the "critical point" arriving meant that established manufacturers could just buy the cost-and-performance-critical parts of EV manufacturing in volume, at low cost, from their suppliers as they're used to. But they can't, because the advancements that make this the right time are not sold on the open market. Getting there requires at least five years of R&D and billions invested, and in that time their competitors will have advanced further.

This outcome isn't obvious yet, so I might still be wrong, but that's where my money would be. I suppose that purchasing one of the startups working on this is a more promising option, but I'm not at all convinced.

[clouddrover]

> I believe it's impossible to win this kind of technological race without appearing to be early. So my prediction is most of them will fail.

Tesla used to be the biggest BEV manufacturer in Europe. But now in 2021 Tesla is number 3:

https://eu-evs.com/bestSellers/ALL/Groups/Year/2021

It's not as though the world's biggest car companies are going to forget how to make cars.

[simondotau]

This is largely because Tesla is supply constrained and they’ve chosen to prioritise fulfilling of orders in the USA which are more profitable. When Berlin Model Y production kicks off at the end of the year, the story might well change.

At the end of the day, regional sales numbers are irrelevant. The number that matters is global sales.

[clouddrover]

So you're saying Volkswagen sells more because they build more cars? Like Volkswagen's got expertise in car manufacturing or something? Maybe that's why they're the second biggest car manufacturer globally.

[marvin]

Does Volkswagen currently produce and sell more (pure) electric cars than Tesla? As GP said, regional sales numbers are irrelevant.

The established manufacturers obviously know how to make cars, but are behind on battery cells, packs, drivetrains and software. That VW currently out-delivers Tesla in some markets is not a rebuttal.

If they’re actually out-producing and outselling them globally, that would be an interesting development.

[clouddrover]

> That VW currently out-delivers Tesla in some markets is not a rebuttal

They've taken over the biggest EV market from Tesla. That hardly fits the narrative of it being "impossible to win this kind of technological race". Look at the trend:

https://eu-evs.com/bestSellersCharts/ALL/Groups/Line-Cumulat...

Year by year they will continue transitioning to EVs:

https://www.volkswagen-newsroom.com/en/press-releases/volksw...

The case that the big car companies won't remain big car companies is flimsy at best. It's a product of wishful thinking more than practical realities.

[simondotau]

VW haven’t taken Tesla market, they (along with Stellantis) have expanded the euro EV market with more economy options. Growing the EV pie is good for all companies invested in EV.

Based on current landscape, it seems to me that the companies best poised to “win” in the transition to EV are Tesla, VW and Hyundai, with mixed/wildcard entries from Stellantis, Ford, maybe Volvo. Companies like Toyota, Nissan and Honda could go either way but I’m not seeing promising signs of them taking the inevitability of EVs seriously. No, the Leaf isn't serious.

The thing about Tesla is it’s hard to overstate the technology lead they have over rivals—particularly in terms of manufacturing costs through aggressive part simplification & count reduction (e.g. gigapress, octovalve) and wildly superior software engineering. Tesla is also the only automaker with no legacy ICE investments that need to be written down and no legacy vehicle market. And Tesla don’t have a legacy dealer network to worry about; they can sell direct when most other brands have to keep dealerships sweet.

I’m not saying Tesla have it in the bag, but if they keep up their current pace and release more hit products, they do have the potential to become a top 3 automaker within 10 years. Or not. Nothing is certain.