> That VW currently out-delivers Tesla in some markets is not a rebuttal
They've taken over the biggest EV market from Tesla. That hardly fits the narrative of it being "impossible to win this kind of technological race". Look at the trend:
The case that the big car companies won't remain big car companies is flimsy at best. It's a product of wishful thinking more than practical realities.
VW haven’t taken Tesla market, they (along with Stellantis) have expanded the euro EV market with more economy options. Growing the EV pie is good for all companies invested in EV.
Based on current landscape, it seems to me that the companies best poised to “win” in the transition to EV are Tesla, VW and Hyundai, with mixed/wildcard entries from Stellantis, Ford, maybe Volvo. Companies like Toyota, Nissan and Honda could go either way but I’m not seeing promising signs of them taking the inevitability of EVs seriously. No, the Leaf isn't serious.
The thing about Tesla is it’s hard to overstate the technology lead they have over rivals—particularly in terms of manufacturing costs through aggressive part simplification & count reduction (e.g. gigapress, octovalve) and wildly superior software engineering. Tesla is also the only automaker with no legacy ICE investments that need to be written down and no legacy vehicle market. And Tesla don’t have a legacy dealer network to worry about; they can sell direct when most other brands have to keep dealerships sweet.
I’m not saying Tesla have it in the bag, but if they keep up their current pace and release more hit products, they do have the potential to become a top 3 automaker within 10 years. Or not. Nothing is certain.
The idea that Toyota is somehow going away any time soon is faulty.
> No, the Leaf isn't serious.
The Leaf is one of the best selling EVs in the history of EVs.
> The thing about Tesla is it’s hard to overstate the technology lead they have over rivals—particularly in terms of manufacturing costs through aggressive part simplification & count reduction
Fantasy. The reality is Tesla is raising prices again and again:
Meanwhile Volkswagen is reducing prices on the ID.3 and ID.4. The cost savings of the common MEB platform enable them to do so. It lets them price models under the limits of government subsidies:
Nobody is saying Toyota are "going away". They will remain a major auto-maker, but I doubt they'll be in first or second place in 2030. It all depends on how quickly the economy car segment transitions from ICE to EV.
Toyota is a hybrid leader but an EV laggard. Their decision to dip toes into many electrification strategies is going to prove costly and wasteful.
> The Leaf is one of the best selling EVs in the history of EVs.
Despite being on the market for eleven years, it's already a distant second to the Tesla Model 3. Tesla sold more EVs in one year (2020) than Nissan has sold in a decade (2010-2020). And the future isn't looking bright: 2020 was the worst sales year ever for the Leaf.
The Nissan Leaf is much like the Prius was a decade ago, a darling of certain early adopters with near-zero mainstream appeal. But at least Toyota took their hybrid investments and successfully applied them to mainstream vehicles like the RAV4, Highlander and Camry. Nissan haven't leveraged their EV investments, they squandered them.
> The reality is Tesla is raising prices again and again
Tesla have been raising and lowering prices as their costs have changed. Recently the cost of raw materials like steel, aluminium, copper and lithium have skyrocketed.
This is what happens when you don't have a network of dealers: you can't conceal month-to-month manufacturer price fluctuations behind dealership negotiation.
> Meanwhile Volkswagen is reducing prices on the ID.3 and ID.4.
Because they flopped. For all the hype surrounding their launch, ID.3 and ID.4 are outclassed in nearly every respect by equivalent EVs from Hyundai—including range, efficiency, performance and driving dynamics. Teardowns of the ID.4 have shown that MEB isn't even a real EV platform. It was all hype.
Sorry, but this is just naive. Volkswagen has 26.5% of the European EV market in 2021. If the MEB platform is a flop then I think Volkswagen will very much like to continue that flop.
> Teardowns of the ID.4 have shown that MEB isn't even a real EV platform. It was all hype.
I don't know what that's supposed to mean. I don't think you know either.
In its inaugural sales year this brand new, intensely hyped, domestic branded, locally manufactured product barely edged out sales of a foreign branded, fully imported, three-year-old vehicle with an import tariff price penalty.
It's well known that a LOT of people in Europe are holding out on their purchase of a Tesla vehicle until the Berlin-manufactured Model Y becomes available. Let's see how the market share numbers look then.
Based on current landscape, it seems to me that the companies best poised to “win” in the transition to EV are Tesla, VW and Hyundai, with mixed/wildcard entries from Stellantis, Ford, maybe Volvo. Companies like Toyota, Nissan and Honda could go either way but I’m not seeing promising signs of them taking the inevitability of EVs seriously. No, the Leaf isn't serious.
The thing about Tesla is it’s hard to overstate the technology lead they have over rivals—particularly in terms of manufacturing costs through aggressive part simplification & count reduction (e.g. gigapress, octovalve) and wildly superior software engineering. Tesla is also the only automaker with no legacy ICE investments that need to be written down and no legacy vehicle market. And Tesla don’t have a legacy dealer network to worry about; they can sell direct when most other brands have to keep dealerships sweet.
I’m not saying Tesla have it in the bag, but if they keep up their current pace and release more hit products, they do have the potential to become a top 3 automaker within 10 years. Or not. Nothing is certain.