Insurgence would have been crashed if not RF army [1]. RF military responsible for passenger plane [2]. I am from Ukraine, our army protects us from invasion. We've seen "Russian peace" in occupied territories, that's slow death.
Mr Kuleba recalled that in 2014 there was a Russian plan to split Ukraine and create an entity called "Novorossiya" (New Russia) - a plan foiled by Ukraine's armed forces.
Not commenting on Russia vs. Ukraine here, but I wanted to point out this somewhat misleading line. Novorossiya is the name of that historical region going back to the 1700s. The way it's written by the BBC, it sounds like Russia is just inventing their own new entity from nothing.
I don't think it is misleading. Novorossiya, as Wikipedia points out, is a historical term. It does not exist on political maps. The phrasing is the same as if someone wanted to carve out a chunk of Germany and call it Prussia.
Yes, it's misleading because it ignores the revanchist reasoning of Russia in favor of simple "Russia bad, Russia invader, Russia imperialist" narratives.
Novorossiya was historically a part of the Russian Empire for a very long time. Russia clearly wants it back. Whether they are justified in getting it or not, I have no comment. But the least we can do is actually understand their reasoning.
And India was part of the British empire, Mexico (then called the viceroyalty of New Spain) a part of Spain and the list goes on. Might makes right belongs to a bygone age and people are entitled to self-determination.
To decline to stand up to dictator - nay, a tyrant - such as Putin makes one a coward undeserving of the liberties they were born with.
These are not really good examples. India, Mexico, etc. were different cultures with thousands of years of history as independent entities. Novorossiya and indeed large parts of the current political state of Ukraine were a part of "Russia" for hundreds of years. Ukraine itself didn't really exist as a unified state from the end of the Kievan Rus (13th century) until the 20th century and was mostly a battleground between Poland, Russia, and the Ottoman Empire.
Like I said, it's complicated. Does that justify Russia's actions? I don't know and I am deliberately explaining this in a neutral way.
There are plenty of regions in Europe that have similar histories and few countries in Europe are really that old, even states with long histories have not had constitutional orders lasting more than 50 years. Finland was a part of Sweden for 600 years, Denmark part of Norway for an equal amount time. Neither of those facts in any way reduces the Finnish or Norwegian people's right to self determination.
Waging aggressive war is a violation of international law - The state of Ukraine is the legitimate successor to Ukrainian SFR and if Russia has any claims on its territory those must be pursued through legal means.
There is nothing complicated about the Ukrainian question, it is simply a part of Putin's strategy of death by a thousand cuts. Last time that strategy was used Europe was thrown into a conflict that made the world say never again to nationalism. The Russian people would have done well to listen to their grandfathers now that this conflict is all but forgot.
No, it isn't. Ruthenians, Belarusians, Ukrainians, and Russians are all descendants of the Rus. Belarus does not mean "White Russia", it means "White Rus."
> Originally, the name Rus' (Cyrillic: Русь) referred to the people,[1] regions, and medieval states (9th to 12th centuries) of the Kievan Rus'. In Western culture, it was better known as Ruthenia from the 11th century onwards,[2] Its territories are today distributed among Belarus, Northern Ukraine, Eastern Poland, and the European section of Russia. The term Россия (Rossija), comes from the Byzantine Greek designation of the Rus', Ρωσσία Rossía—spelled Ρωσία (Rosía pronounced [roˈsia]) in Modern Greek.
Historical region called Russia (Русся), but suffix -sia (-sia) was dropped in Slavic language, because it means this/there: Russia (Русся) -> Rus` sia (Русь ся), Rus` there.
Russia founded by descendants of Russia town, now called Old Russa (Старая Русса), which left their town due to epidemic of plague of Justinian.
The NATO part seems curious. I was under the impression that NATO does not generally accept membership from nations that don't currently control their claimed territory, and that part of the reason Russia seems to like biting off small chunks of neighboring countries was thought to be that those nations couldn't reasonably join NATO as long as the Russians were there.
If you are a Russian "president" and have domestic troubles like a crappy economy and lots of Covid, always remember the 34th rule of acquisition "War is good for business".
> The country’s official coronavirus death toll is 102,649. But at least 300,000 more people died last year during the pandemic than were reported in Russia’s most widely cited official statistics.
That is interesting. Very reasonable approach. The only problem is that they failed to provide the link to the materials they used in the study. And I don't see death rate statistics for 2020, only for 2019 and before. Publication calendar states that the nearset publication is expected on May, 15.
I have not checked source but it's claimed around the world. There is a link [1] in another article [2]. RF propaganda would react on false claims, silence means it is correct. So far its response is "I can't compare numbers" [3].
If you are president of RF and caused Covid-19 epidemic (search for "blast at Vector lab"), the most rational move is to increase tension and then try to trade peace for amnesty.
Canadian here on the ground in Ukraine, on the Eastern side (Kharkiv). The situation is pretty serious as everyone’s talking about war, and I personally am stocking up on non-perishable food items. The prevailing opinion seems to be that Russia is just flexing muscles, but I personally believe a full scale invasion is in the works. The idea that Putin is trying to extract concessions doesn’t make sense to me, because there aren’t many concessions to extract, especially from that young idealistic Zelensky.
Things are as tense here as I've ever experienced since I moved here in 2018. Most Ukrainians I know don't think a full-scale invasion is likely, but I think that's just because contemplating the prospect of an escalation of the war with Russia is too unpleasant. I know that the Ukrainian armed forces are taking it seriously, although as far as I know they haven't yet mobilized any reserves.
That said, a lot has changed since 2014. Back then, Ukraine's military was hollowed out by years of neglect and corruption. Ukraine's armed forces have undergone a significant transformation since then, and while I don't think they could hold off the combined forces of Russia's armor, air, and naval assets, they don't have to: they just have to make Russia pay dearly enough for every meter they take that it's not worth it.
To that end, we (the US but also Canada and Great Britain) have done a lot in terms of training and support, and IIRC there are units of Ukrainian Special Forces which have certified as NATO SOF. If I were a Russian tank commander advancing into Ukrainian territory, I'd be very worried about the Javelin anti-tank missile systems Ukraine bought from the US. Ukraine is also operating a pretty advanced Turkish armed UAV platform which could ruin the day of would-be invaders.
I'm not yet at the point where I'm considering leaving Ukraine, but it is a pretty stressful time. However you have to understand that Ukraine has been at war with Russia since 2014; Ukrainian soldiers have continued to fight and die on the contact line in Eastern Ukraine ever since. So to some extent the population here are used to the looming threat of violence from Russia since it never went away. Nonetheless, this feels like an escalation and that worries me.
Russia invasion consolidated Ukrainians. Only NATO could bring peace to my country. Crimea with Russia returns to its native state, land without much water. That was a reason Crimea was handled to Ukraine, on its balance, it was not "present".
Putin is trying to distract from internal problems — rising prices, peaceful meetings breakdown, his Palace [1], dying in prison opposition leader Navalny. And on top of it Baiden called Putin a killer. He is playing "strong leader" again. Full scale invasion is higly possible, but only because RF government is insane.
Hey, given that you're "on the ground", in your opinion, what is the mood there and what do you think is more likely:
- no invasion (flex muscles, drills, go home)
- limited invasion
- full-scale invasion
* Donbass — brainwashing, traitors in government and police, RF mercenaries and brainwashed Russians [1].
Since then largely people understood that "Russian peace" is war, poverty and crime. Pro-Russian parties popularity plummeted, last incarnation got 10% [2]. I do not think it is possible to reproduce Donbass scenario. And invasion would not be praised.
Last remaining option is forceful occupation. War goal is North Crimean Canal [3] in Kherson Oblast [4].
Overall mood — we have to be ready. No one can predict Russia — it's information autocracy. Putin does anything to improve his rating. Crimea annexation improved his approval rating up to 87%. And it is falling again — poverty, Putins palace, Navalny in jail, COVID deaths, too much to hide without external enemy.
I hope it is flexing muscles. Preparation is too obvious, compare with Crimea occupation. Yet we have to be ready for "Russian speaking Ukrainians" from nearby Russian cities. It could happen again. In such case I would be in a city center.
> Yet we have to be ready for "Russian speaking Ukrainians" from nearby Russian cities
Yes this is an important point. Russia's official position to this day is that they have not invaded Donbass, and that the conflict there is a civil war. That's transparently false propaganda, and extensive evidence exists of specific identifiable Russian military units operating in Ukraine, but it's nonetheless the Russian narrative. If they escalate further it would not surprise me if it were "Russian speaking Ukrainians" again; Russian operatives furthering Russian interests using Russian equipment and Russian resources, but officially deniable by Russia.
Another favored narrative is that they are protecting Russian-speaking peoples from oppression, and that these oppressed peoples want to be under Russian rule. That worked to some extent in 2014, and I knew many educated and prosperous Ukrainians who believed that propaganda. It will be a harder sell today, as it's very obvious that seven years of "freedom" in Donbass has destroyed the region and made life worse for the Ukrainians who still live there. But, again, I don't think Putin cares if the rest of the world believe that propaganda; the target audience is the Russian people.
Kharkiv and the T-34 factory that built the tanks which stopped the Nazis from invading Moscow is one of the most remarkable stories in history. The timeliness of Mikhal Koshkin’s armor column can not be understated. This is especially interesting because the T-34 platform was invented by J. Walter Christie, an American! The story has got it all for a major blockbuster. Its worth reading about Christie’s life.
Ukraine is important in tech industry, given crazy amount of outsourcing and strong tech sector which are mostly american companies (e.g. Lyft, Snapchat, Oracle, Google, Ring)
I live in Ukraine. After 7 years of proxy war RF prepares for open war.
There are plenty of facts. RF controls occupied territories, "republic" leaders claimed many times it would be impossible without RF supply, mercenaries and army. They've written books on the matter. It is not a secret.
I can't understand how some smart people still sympathize Russia and say it acts only for defense. Russia has made the first annexation in Europe since WW2 and effectively control another part of Ukraine.
Right now it looks like Russian logic is that every free person in the world is a potential threat to Russia. Because threat is anything that you don't control.
It's more tricky than it seems. For example, do you support the right of people to self-determine? Should Scotland be allowed to secede from the UK and join the EU?
While elections in Crimea were clearly not "fair" and the method by which it "joined" Russia was nebulous, the peninsula is absolutely Russian-speaking. It's pretty likely that the population would choose to join Russia, if they'd been given the chance.
Not defending Russia here, but as I said, it's complex.
I am Russian-speaking. But also Ukrainian, English and a bit German. Is this a reason to occupy my country by GB?
Please stop spreading lies. Scotland self determination is peaceful. Crimea had its parliament. No one cared to vote until occupation and brainwashing by RF controlled propaganda spreading awful lies about Ukraine.
"Right now it looks like Russian logic is that every free person in the world is a potential threat to Russia. Because threat is anything that you don't control."
Don't you mean "American logic"? If not, have you looked at a political and military map in the last couple of years, as well as paid attention to the changes?
Many Germans in the Sudetenland were happy to become part of Germany in WW2, that doesn't mean anything. That was one of Hitler's excuses for invading and annexing early on. He took it too far (in the eyes of the allies) when he invaded Poland, though the Polish Corridor was formerly German as well.
Does "what the people of Crimea wanted" change whether or not Russia annexed the territory against the wishes of the current owners of the territory and against international law that Russia claims to respect?
It suggests that Russia isn't planning to annex "every free person in the world" as the parent comment suggested. They're taking blatant, aggressive advantage of the Ukrainian Revolution to expand their power and influence, and that's undoubtedly a bad thing to do, but I don't think it indicates any substantial risk to other countries in the region.
Transnistria in Moldova (1991), South Ossetia in Georgia (2008), Crimea and Donbass in Ukraine (2014). They've embraced USSR, claim to return territories, its representatives claims to bomb West. No worries?
Well, worries about what? I'd certainly be worried if I were in charge of a post-Soviet state with unresolved separatist movements, but I'm not sure that's really an issue the international community can solve. It's not as though these regions would be safe and peaceful if Russia weren't taking advantage.
There were definitely some Crimeans who preferred to be part of Russia. But I don't think the referendum was free or fair. And even if we could say that 51% of them genuinely wanted to secede from Ukraine and join Russia, it doesn't change the fact that Russia annexed Crimea first, and then, lo and behold, the Crimean people wanted Russian rule all along. I don't think there's any way to square what happened with international law.
There's another devious tactic Russia uses which is IMHO even worse than the bogus referendum: They've started issuing Russian passports to Ukrainian citizens in the part of Eastern Ukraine that is controlled by the "independent republics" which are de facto controlled by Russia. So now, Russia can say, truthfully, that there are many Russian citizens in Donbass, and justify military escalation there as a purely defensive act responding to Ukrainian abuses of Russian citizens. Meanwhile, life in Donbass gets worse and worse, Russian passport or not.
Any poll is subject to influences, cheating, biases, etc, etc... Just spend a week there during not so high season, so you meet mostly locals, and speak to some random people. It takes some effort probably but in my believe it is the only way to make at least a little informed opinion on any topic.
Russia is information autocracy state. TV controlled by state for more than 20 years. Average Russian knows all sort of weird things, basically everything that helps Putin. West is evil, Putin is the only choice, Ukraine is fascist state, Russian is superior culture.
Liberals are better, yet their culture is based on occupation, it brings joy. Annexation of Crimea have raised Putin rating to 87%.
An actual war with the thousands of troops they're moving? I don't know, I hope not.
Surely Russian leaders remember how the war in Afghanistan affected the USSR. It was a massive waste of money and resources, and it played a big role in destabilizing the whole regime.
This would be similar, imo, if NATO backs Ukraine. Russia will just waste money, destroy lives and whatever prosperity the region had, for little to no return. Maybe they get two more republics into the federation.
They're just pushing Ukraine, Georgia into NATO and everyone else away from them. What a sad state of affairs.
Selective reporting on what? Russia has been massing troops on the border.
The reporting is fine, at this point it’s not a question if Russia would invade the Ukraine they already have, the question is would the west stand up to them with this time or not.
Ukraine threatens to invade DPR and LPR. Russia gathers forces to scare Ukraine and to prevent that invasion. For me it's pretty simple. War is unlikely, because Ukraine won't risk it. Russia does not want to invade Ukraine either, because it's just don't make sense, at least right now, when they want to finish Nord Stream 2.
"invade" seems to be a wrong word. "liberate" sounds better.
Kicking out Russian forces, reaching the border, putting neutral peacekeeper forces and then starting gradual reintegration would be the best scenario for Ukraine.
Propaganda presumes lies. Official position is just that: official position. Kremlin believes that Ukraine is preparing to war. There are reports about Ukraine forces gathering up, so those beliefs probably are justified.
It is managed by Russia so it is Russia, now. The same way Ireland one day was administered from London and now is not (excl. Northern Ireland). The rest is emotional talk.
The situation in these areas is substantially more complicated than that. They're part of Ukraine's internationally recognized territory, yes, but they seceded in response to a 2014 overthrow (very arguably a coup) of the democratically elected president they supported. So there are good reasons that a Ukranian military takeover would be seen as aggression.
The Lawfare Podcast: Alex Vindman on the Escalation in Ukraine
https://www.lawfareblog.com/lawfare-podcast-alex-vindman-esc...