[vbezhenar]

Ukraine threatens to invade DPR and LPR. Russia gathers forces to scare Ukraine and to prevent that invasion. For me it's pretty simple. War is unlikely, because Ukraine won't risk it. Russia does not want to invade Ukraine either, because it's just don't make sense, at least right now, when they want to finish Nord Stream 2.

[helge9210]

"invade" seems to be a wrong word. "liberate" sounds better. Kicking out Russian forces, reaching the border, putting neutral peacekeeper forces and then starting gradual reintegration would be the best scenario for Ukraine.

[coold]

Their "invaders", our "liberators"

[mourner]

> Ukraine threatens to invade DPR and LPR

That's what Russian propaganda says, but it has no basis in reality.

[vbezhenar]

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-56678665

It's not Russian propaganda, it's Russian officials.

[kvgr]

Is there any difference?

[vbezhenar]

Propaganda presumes lies. Official position is just that: official position. Kremlin believes that Ukraine is preparing to war. There are reports about Ukraine forces gathering up, so those beliefs probably are justified.

[kvgr]

Is there any presumption that Russia politicians are not lying? They are the spokesperson of propaganda.

[vbezhenar]

There's not, just like there's not any presumption that BBC reports about Russian forces are not lying. So one should weight all the information and choose which one to believe. I expressed my point of view which might be wrong. There's absolutely no reason right now for Russia to invade Ukraine. They had plenty of time before. They have to finish Nord Stream 2, so they absolutely don't want to impose any additional sanctions on themselves. While US have all the incentive to break bonds between Russia and Germany and to prevent Nord Stream 2, so they commanded Zelensky to start a war, hoping that Russia will join it and Europe will be forced to impose additional sanctions.

Russia could have attacked before. Russia could attack later, when Nord Stream 2 is finished and Germany is on hook and won't go anywhere. But right now it's just the wrong time.

[helloworld11]

There's a difference?

[dogma1138]

It doesn’t matter what Ukraine is attempting to do, and it wouldn’t be an invasion it’s their territory.

[vbezhenar]

They don't control it, so it's as theirs as Crimea.

[throwawayay02]

It's not their territory though, not for some years now. That is the reality of it.

[kvgr]

It is their territory. Occupied by Russia. Ilegally. Period.

[throwawayay02]

It is managed by Russia so it is Russia, now. The same way Ireland one day was administered from London and now is not (excl. Northern Ireland). The rest is emotional talk.

[kvgr]

The difference is that the while world on the fact that Ireland is self governed. Almost no one agrees that Criema is Russian.

[throwawayay02]

I don't think that is true. I think most people would agree the people in Crimea understand they speak Russian, have a Russian passport, can travel inside Russia, pay taxes to the Russian government, their children are schooled in Russian topics. Culturally the majority probably feel quite Russian, or as Russian as any other "republic" of the Russian "federation".

There are countries with less cultural and linguistic similarity, for instance Catalonia comes to mind, yet there is also the general agreement that Catalonia is part of Spain and not fully self governed, much less governed by any other country.

[SpicyLemonZest]

The situation in these areas is substantially more complicated than that. They're part of Ukraine's internationally recognized territory, yes, but they seceded in response to a 2014 overthrow (very arguably a coup) of the democratically elected president they supported. So there are good reasons that a Ukranian military takeover would be seen as aggression.