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Hey, American here, I live in Kyiv. Things are as tense here as I've ever experienced since I moved here in 2018. Most Ukrainians I know don't think a full-scale invasion is likely, but I think that's just because contemplating the prospect of an escalation of the war with Russia is too unpleasant. I know that the Ukrainian armed forces are taking it seriously, although as far as I know they haven't yet mobilized any reserves. That said, a lot has changed since 2014. Back then, Ukraine's military was hollowed out by years of neglect and corruption. Ukraine's armed forces have undergone a significant transformation since then, and while I don't think they could hold off the combined forces of Russia's armor, air, and naval assets, they don't have to: they just have to make Russia pay dearly enough for every meter they take that it's not worth it. To that end, we (the US but also Canada and Great Britain) have done a lot in terms of training and support, and IIRC there are units of Ukrainian Special Forces which have certified as NATO SOF. If I were a Russian tank commander advancing into Ukrainian territory, I'd be very worried about the Javelin anti-tank missile systems Ukraine bought from the US. Ukraine is also operating a pretty advanced Turkish armed UAV platform which could ruin the day of would-be invaders. I'm not yet at the point where I'm considering leaving Ukraine, but it is a pretty stressful time. However you have to understand that Ukraine has been at war with Russia since 2014; Ukrainian soldiers have continued to fight and die on the contact line in Eastern Ukraine ever since. So to some extent the population here are used to the looming threat of violence from Russia since it never went away. Nonetheless, this feels like an escalation and that worries me. |