[philsnow]

The promise of "upward potential" of every one of these social media fads is that it could be the "last" one, the Big One that websites and captures every following generation.

Do you think that TikTok is The Big One, that will still be growing at the same rate in ten years' time? I don't.

Myspace and Facebook are shrinking. Some of the users leaving are going to TikTok, sure, but I don't think that means that it's better, it's just hotter right now.

[spideymans]

Of course TikTok won’t be growing at the same rate in 10 years time. That doesn’t mean it won’t still be a huge platform, however.

In fact, I’d wager that, it TikTok plays their cards right, the platform could be bigger than YouTube within five years or so. I know it sounds crazy now, but there is nothing that dictates that YouTube’s model is the best for delivering democratized video publishing to the masses.

I find that a lot of these Gen Z kids don’t have the patience to sit thru a five or 10 minute YouTube video (and I can’t really blame them; how much time have you wasted watching YouTube videos that ended up being clickbait garbage?). They’d rather have the information condensed down into a 90 second video, and TikTok is perfectly designed to serve those viewing habits.

I know the popular perception of TikTok (from those that don’t use it) is that it just hosts trendy dance videos, but TikTok creators are publishing essentially all the same genres of content we see on YouTube. You can find everything from dance videos to home improvement tutorials on the service. Furthermore, more and more YouTube creators are moving over to TikTok. I view the service as the single biggest threat we’ve seen to YouTube since it’s rise to popularity.

I suspect TikToks next big move will be into YouTube’s bread and butter: official music videos. Their user interaction model lends itself extremely well into music discovery.

Also, most fundamentally, there’s only 24 hours in a day. Every hour spent on TikTok is one hour not spent on YouTube or a competing service.

[wolco]

TikTok is not a threat to youtube. Instagram maybe. Everyone has a place.

Short videos on youtube are not rewarding and accounts are centered usually around one topic.

On tiktok you follow a person who posts videos.. which are like moving instagram pictures .

Instagram has been pushing videos but people are sharing more live stream longer content.

The next big site will be pornhub meets tiktok. 90 seconds or less x-rated content that is connected to patreon and your tiktok profile

[spideymans]

TikTok has essentially three categories of users

1. Users that watch, but don’t post anything

2. Regular people that just post random things for fun. These people are essentially using it as instagram for video

3. People making relatively high quality content involving specific subject matter (vlogs, food, technology, sports, etc...). Essentially recreating YouTube channels on TikTok.

The service has historically been dominated by category 1 and 2, but we’re seeing more and more of category 3 now.

And keep in mind that I’m not saying YouTube will disappear - not in the least. There is space for both services to exist. However, TikTok will be capturing an increasing share of the creators that previously had no choice but to be on YouTube.

[wolco]

Usually they are forced to youtube for the advertising dollars. On twitter or instagram influencers can make a sizable amounts with sponsored posts. Does tiktok have an ad program for content creators? Are tiktok users becoming paid influencers? Do people post sponsored tiktok videos?

[interskh]

Yeah once they figure out the monetization part, the ecosystem would be complete. They've been working on that. I don't think it is as efficient yet. But you can also look at Chinese version of tiktok, where they have already a full ecosystem and lots of people making lots of money off the platform.

[spideymans]

> The next big site will be pornhub meets tiktok. 90 seconds or less x-rated content that is connected to patreon and your tiktok profile

Ha, not sure if this was supposed to be a joke or not, but that’s arguably what lead Tumblr’s rise to prominence, and also their demise when the porn ban was implemented

[zanny]

Importantly its because kids don't want to be a part of the "old" culture. They actively reject entering places with an older established demographic because they want to define their own spaces.

Tiktok by its nature cannot maintain the momentum it has with kids 14-18 now with the kids that are currently 8-12. They will reject it no matter what Tiktok does because thats how kids are conditioned in the west to behave.

[learc83]

I think it’s less that they won’t to define their own space than that they don’t want to hangout with their parents.

But your point holds either way. Eventually TikTok will become so popular that their parents/grandparents/older siblings will start using it, and it won’t be cool anymore.

[mgraczyk]

Facebook is shrinking in some countries, but globally it is still growing in both usage and activity. Check out their recent quarterly results.

[csmiller]

They grew DAUs in every region.

DHH said it well on twitter, the constraint to FB's growth is they are running out of people on earth.

[https://twitter.com/dhh/status/1288939549884743680]

[philsnow]

Thanks for pointing this out, my US-centrism blinded me to it.

[jamesjyu]

FB DAU is still growing in the US, albeit slower than before.

[wolco]

With the stay home orders I would expect numbers to be up.

[albacur]

The pet rock was a fad.

Online companies, like brick and mortar companies, rise and fall. And even if Facebook's best days are behind it, I'm not sure we can call a business that grew for nearly 15 years and is now used by billions of people a "fad." Regardless, it generated unfathomable wealth for its founders, and made thousands of employees financially set for life.

If TikTok could capture that, it doesn't matter if it lasts five years or ten years, the people at the top will become very, very rich.

So I think both commenters above are correct: it has huge potential upside that investors are willing to gamble on, and it probably won't become the next Facebook so it might be worth it for the current owners to cash out now.

[kerng]

They can still grow by about 10x (at least I'd say). Wait until they focus or reach other demographics.