[fizixer]

As I have said countless times in the past:

- Moore's law is dead at the level of the transistor

- Architecture, HPC updates will keep coming for many years into the future

- AGI has already escaped Moore's law (i.e., development of a fully functional AGI will not be constrained by lack of Moore's law progress). And that's what really matters.

- Related note on AGI: it has escaped the data problem as well (as in we have the right kind of sensors: mainly cameras, microphones, and so on). That is, according to the categorization of AGI challenges in terms of hardware, data, algorithms, the only missing piece is the right set of algorithms.

[AnimalMuppet]

Why do you say that AGI has escaped Moore's law? Especially, how can you say so when you don't know what the right set of algorithms are?

[fizixer]

Oh then you're not going to like what I'm going to say next:

- Somewhere between 2015 and 2025, multiple individual groups will have cracked the AGI problem independently. (but 2015 is in the past, which means there are likely groups out there that have cracked the problem and keeping it a secret).

- AGI-in-the-basement scenario is very doable and has been or will be done, many times over.

[AnimalMuppet]

And your evidence for this claim is... what?

[fizixer]

A combination of:

- sources available freely online

- my own thought process and piecing of things together

[AnimalMuppet]

What sources freely available online tell you that there are likely groups out there that have cracked AGI and are keeping it a secret?

[fizixer]

https://www.futuretimeline.net/blog/2017/06/13.htm