[fizixer]

Oh then you're not going to like what I'm going to say next:

- Somewhere between 2015 and 2025, multiple individual groups will have cracked the AGI problem independently. (but 2015 is in the past, which means there are likely groups out there that have cracked the problem and keeping it a secret).

- AGI-in-the-basement scenario is very doable and has been or will be done, many times over.

[AnimalMuppet]

And your evidence for this claim is... what?

[fizixer]

A combination of:

- sources available freely online

- my own thought process and piecing of things together

[AnimalMuppet]

What sources freely available online tell you that there are likely groups out there that have cracked AGI and are keeping it a secret?

[fizixer]

https://www.futuretimeline.net/blog/2017/06/13.htm

[AnimalMuppet]

By my eyeball, that adds up to maybe 12% probability by 2025. As evidence for your claim, that's... rather unimpressive, and less than convincing.