[fizixer]

A combination of:

- sources available freely online

- my own thought process and piecing of things together

[AnimalMuppet]

What sources freely available online tell you that there are likely groups out there that have cracked AGI and are keeping it a secret?

[fizixer]

https://www.futuretimeline.net/blog/2017/06/13.htm

[AnimalMuppet]

By my eyeball, that adds up to maybe 12% probability by 2025. As evidence for your claim, that's... rather unimpressive, and less than convincing.