Hacker News new | ask | show | jobs
by marvin 2211 days ago
Okay. So let's press a magic button to make every place in the whole world hit equally hard as NYC, one of the worst-hit cities in the world, with all the death and suffering that entails. Then repeat the process four times. Now we're at 80%, still short of GP's claim.

GP knows that their argument is wrong, and is deliberately lying.
1 comments
redis_mlc 2211 days ago
The official testing result is 3.6% positive rate in the SF Bay Area, but we have so many flights from China weekly that it could easily be 50% or more. (fairly unique region)
link
m_mueller 2211 days ago
All available data indicates that China is by now among the safer countries for travel in regards to COVID19.
link
redis_mlc 2211 days ago
Not from Dec. to March.
link
namelosw 2211 days ago
I doubt it, since provinces other than Hubei province had significantly lower cases.

It is a huge country and it was "so many flights" from China, instead of "so many flights" from Hubei province.

If it's hard to wrap this try swap China and the US.

link
redis_mlc 2210 days ago
Actually you're totally wrong for several reasons, not the least of which is your symmetric handling of travel:

- there are direct flights from Wuhan (and Shanghai, #8 in the world) to SFO (Trump stopped the Chinese flights Jan. 31, but Chinese travellers were detouring through Africa and Europe in Feb.)

- but local travel outside Wuhan was restricted (latest Jan. 23, Disneyworld Shanghai was closed Jan. 24)

- the Cambridge and Washington corona models are overly pessimistic and start late - the first Wuhan hospitalization was Dec. 1, and with the direct flights to SFO, corona was in the US in mid-Dec.

What's hard for you and other HNers to wrap your head around is that all the reported information is completely wrong.

The best source I've seen so far is this:

The Failure of Expert Predictions and Models | The Coronavirus and Public Policy

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mG2vdyfLv7U

Dr. Victor Davis Hanson also has about 3 interviews that add to that. Search Youtube for "covid-19 victor davis hanson"

(We independently came to the identical analysis of corona for California, literally word-for-word, which is the opposite of the sensationalist news media. The Santa Clara hospital dashboard confirms this, being flat for months.)

link