| Actually you're totally wrong for several reasons, not the least of which is your symmetric handling of travel: - there are direct flights from Wuhan (and Shanghai, #8 in the world) to SFO (Trump stopped the Chinese flights Jan. 31, but Chinese travellers were detouring through Africa and Europe in Feb.) - but local travel outside Wuhan was restricted (latest Jan. 23, Disneyworld Shanghai was closed Jan. 24) - the Cambridge and Washington corona models are overly pessimistic and start late - the first Wuhan hospitalization was Dec. 1, and with the direct flights to SFO, corona was in the US in mid-Dec. What's hard for you and other HNers to wrap your head around is that all the reported information is completely wrong. The best source I've seen so far is this: The Failure of Expert Predictions and Models | The Coronavirus and Public Policy https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mG2vdyfLv7U Dr. Victor Davis Hanson also has about 3 interviews that add to that. Search Youtube for "covid-19 victor davis hanson" (We independently came to the identical analysis of corona for California, literally word-for-word, which is the opposite of the sensationalist news media. The Santa Clara hospital dashboard confirms this, being flat for months.) |