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by namelosw
2211 days ago
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I doubt it, since provinces other than Hubei province had significantly lower cases. It is a huge country and it was "so many flights" from China, instead of "so many flights" from Hubei province. If it's hard to wrap this try swap China and the US. |
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- there are direct flights from Wuhan (and Shanghai, #8 in the world) to SFO (Trump stopped the Chinese flights Jan. 31, but Chinese travellers were detouring through Africa and Europe in Feb.)
- but local travel outside Wuhan was restricted (latest Jan. 23, Disneyworld Shanghai was closed Jan. 24)
- the Cambridge and Washington corona models are overly pessimistic and start late - the first Wuhan hospitalization was Dec. 1, and with the direct flights to SFO, corona was in the US in mid-Dec.
What's hard for you and other HNers to wrap your head around is that all the reported information is completely wrong.
The best source I've seen so far is this:
The Failure of Expert Predictions and Models | The Coronavirus and Public Policy
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mG2vdyfLv7U
Dr. Victor Davis Hanson also has about 3 interviews that add to that. Search Youtube for "covid-19 victor davis hanson"
(We independently came to the identical analysis of corona for California, literally word-for-word, which is the opposite of the sensationalist news media. The Santa Clara hospital dashboard confirms this, being flat for months.)