[arel]

Couldn't you in fact make the opposite case?

Sweden as the outlier is not reporting accurately and others are?

The UK has seen huge excess mortality above the average which is being attributed to large numbers of undiagnosed deaths in care homes and in the community.

Its far too early to make any claims as to superior accuracy when almost every country is struggling with accurate testing across their entire population.

In which case you'd expect Swedens numbers to get revised strongly upwards.

Sweden also has no conclusive sign of flattening yet.

[henrikschroder]

> Sweden as the outlier is not reporting accurately and others are?

Huh?

If a country is in lockdown, and still experiences excess mortality, but the official covid-19 deaths aren't enough to cover that excess, then.... what the hell did people die of?

The expectation is that because of lockdown, the excess mortality from non-covid-19 causes should be lower than previous years, and therefore all the actual excess, and probably more, is attributable to covid-19. Which means that countries where the official covid-19 number is lower than excess mortality, like the UK, are underreporting, while countries where the excess mortality matches the official covid-19 number, like Sweden, are not underreporting.

[zajio1am]

> The expectation is that because of lockdown, the excess mortality from non-covid-19 causes should be lower than previous years

It is hard to say whether this is true. There are two reasons why there could be excess mortality caused only indirectly by covid-19 (so not part of covid-19 mortality):

1) Overwhelmed hospitals cannot offer proper healthcare to some patients with non-covid-19 illnesses. This might happen in Italy or Spain.

2) People are too frightened by covid-19 to visit doctor even in acute cases of other illnesses (e.g. minor stroke) and sometimes visit them too late. This was reported by doctors in Czechia.

[arel]

Your underlying assumption is a) Sweden is reporting correctly and b) won't in future find excess deaths in the community - as other countries have:

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-care-h...

UK coronavirus deaths more than double official figure, according to FT study:

https://www.ft.com/content/67e6a4ee-3d05-43bc-ba03-e239799fa...

[henrikschroder]

> Your underlying assumption is a) Sweden is reporting correctly and b) won't in future find excess deaths in the community

Yes.

[mhandley]

I don't think you can assume that non-covid-19 causes should be lower than previous years. For example, the main cause of deaths in normal years is cardiac problems. If Covid-19 is discouraging people from seeking help, and especially from going to the emergency room when they they think something might just possibly be wrong, then you can get a big increase in cardiac deaths.

[henrikschroder]

> I don't think you can assume that non-covid-19 causes should be lower than previous years.

Sure, I agree that it's very uncertain.

However, if that's the case, then that just furthers my point, because it means that Sweden is overreporting covid-19 cases, and is actually doing even better than official stats say they are.

[makomk]

There's a very definite possibility that what people died of is lockdown and fear. More specifically, there have been some really worrying alarm bells going off in multiple countries about people not seeking medical attention for really serious conditions, or not receiving it when they did.

[jessaustin]

A close relative of mine had cancer surgery delayed by 1.5 months because the treating hospital refused to host the surgery. After they realized their hospital had been empty for many weeks, they called him and asked, "do you want to get your surgery three days from now?". He is recovering, but for him it would have been better to have had his surgery when it was originally scheduled.

[tinus_hn]

The total number of people that have died on a certain date is not going to be revised, why would it be?

The excess is that number minus a historical average which will also not be revised.

[arel]

Because of the huge amount of excess deaths that get assigned as probable covid cases. This is happening right now in the UK.