[zajio1am]

> The expectation is that because of lockdown, the excess mortality from non-covid-19 causes should be lower than previous years

It is hard to say whether this is true. There are two reasons why there could be excess mortality caused only indirectly by covid-19 (so not part of covid-19 mortality):

1) Overwhelmed hospitals cannot offer proper healthcare to some patients with non-covid-19 illnesses. This might happen in Italy or Spain.

2) People are too frightened by covid-19 to visit doctor even in acute cases of other illnesses (e.g. minor stroke) and sometimes visit them too late. This was reported by doctors in Czechia.