[CaciaraAsAServi]

I was not very surprised that Italy turned out to be the (first?) major hit in Europe. Considering the strong business connections, it had to be either us or Germany.

We are, as much of the world, importers from China, but many enterprises here are also, somewhat, strong exporters to China (I can see it from my dayjob as industrial automation SI), and if you factor in the small average size of Italian companies requiring many individual contacts (contrast with Germany where companies on average are bigger), you can imagine that there is a strong flow of people to and fro. Maybe the small size of companies requiring more people to establish commercial links + population being more uniformly settled across the country (no huge wildland or sparsely inhabited area left in Po Valley, except maybe some parts of Piedmont?) + a certain cultural inclination for useless quarreling hindering political action + inefficiencies in the administration + an unsolved conflict of power between central gov't and periphery possibly causing some waste of time in other quarreling + having to keep the vast group of small business owners somewhat quiet has resulted in a vast spreading of the virus.

The interesting thing is that, if you replace China with Germany in the paragraph above (wrt. the possible German origin of the outbreak in Italy), the consideration about business links would still apply.

Another interesting thing I have just noticed is that some journalists are now openly praising the Chinese handling of the crisis. Maybe this may sound strange to an American :D but there has been for some time a growing cross-partisan movement calling for stronger links to China. In fact this movement is somewhat present in European business community, so it is not so special to Italy, but nonetheless it is interesting to see these comments of open praise.

[soneil]

> Another interesting thing I have just noticed is that some journalists are now openly praising the Chinese handling of the crisis.

I think this is a very interesting effect. China has a fantastic ability to mobilize as one when needed. The vast majority of the time, the insane amount of control this requires, is something we're simply not comfortable with giving to governments. But sometimes, just sometimes, the results are worth it.

The closest equivalence I could think of that'd be familiar to American ears, would be the WW2 war effort. It's not how most of us would want a country run day-to-day, but the ability to do so when needed is incredibly powerful.

Pumping a hospital out in a week or a battleship out in a month aren't dissimilar in national focus. And they're both achievements. What makes China feel alien to us is that this is their default stance.

(And that said, there's plenty to be critical of in the earlier days of China's response. But in the interest of sharing data and research, we're catching more flies with honey.)

[kijin]

China's ability to mobilize as one as quickly as it did is no doubt a consequence of strong central control. The same centralization, though, is also to blame for its inadequate early response. Officials in Wuhan didn't have the authority to act on their own without Beijing's permission.

After this pandemic has died down, we should compare and contrast different countries' responses and try to appraise objectively just how much of a difference they made. China is trying really hard to make the case that their authoritarian approach is a model for the world, and it's too easy to be persuaded by that rhetoric when everyone is afraid and panicking. Meanwhile, some countries are trying just as hard to persuade their citizens that everything is okay when in fact it isn't. When all is said and done, we'll see how well that works, too.

Depending on how things go, I think South Korea could become either a model for the free world or a lesson in the shortfalls of democracy. They were doing pretty well until mid-February without imposing any travel bans or other measures that might be considered authoritarian, but then the number of cases exploded and everyone had to scramble. Instead of strong central control, most things were delegated to local governments. Different cities and provinces took different initiatives, quickly learning from each other when one of them came up with a new idea such as drive-thru testing. The shortage of hospital beds was met by large companies (hello, Samsung) and megachurches donating their own resorts and conference facilities for use as quarantine centers. Hundreds of doctors rushed to Daegu to help with the medical crisis there, and faced very little bureaucratic red tape in doing so.

The decentralized approach has its own inefficiencies, of course, especially in places with incompetent leaders or when dealing with a cult that refuses to cooperate. But when South Korea says that there were only 35 new cases last night, compared to hundreds a week ago, you can actually trust that it's a good-faith report because it's been cross-checked by so many independent players. The central government misreported the case count for my city a couple of times lately, and the city immediately issued corrections.

[FooBarWidget]

China’s system is, in fact, pretty decentralized. Local authorities have a lot of autonomy. Many people doing business in China for the first time thought they needed to talk to the central government to get things done. The central government nodded and said ‘that’s a good idea’, but then nothing happened. The businessmen are then surprised to find out that they need to talk to local authorities to actually get things done and that the central government is usually not very involved in the process. The same applies the other way around: the central government is surprised that foreigners don’t know this.

The way the Chinese bureaucracy works is that lower-level local government officials have less experience than higher-level officials. They get promotions based on results. Xi Jinping himself was, during the SARS period, the head of a province, and did very well within containing SARS within that province. It doesn’t surprise me if local Wuhan officials simply weren’t as competent in matters of disease containment than the central government.

The Chinese government is not a monolith. Comparing to 1984-style authoritarianism wouldn’t be entirely accurate either. I think it is best compared to a large corporation.

You seem to be afraid of China exporting its model. Chinese diplomats have repeatedly said that they are not interested in doing that. They say: the Chinese way of international relations is one of mutual respect: we will not impose our system on you and you will not impose your system on us. But if you voluntarily want to learn from us then you are welcome.

[cjblomqvist]

Not exporting? They might say that, but in reality they are actively promoting themselves. They also kidnap other countries citizens in third party countries and lock them up without proper trials. See their treatment of Gui Minhao (sry if spelling is off). When things collide (and they will), China will not only care about their own issues with their own people on their own turf, but actively meddle.

I'm not judging, just want to bring some balance to this "truth" you speak of...

[FooBarWidget]

Promoting themselves, sure. But that is not the same as exporting (imposing their system on others, claiming that others are evil for not following their way). Wanting to have a good image is not the same as exporting. All countries talk about themselves in a positive manner In order to uphold their image. Why shouldn’t China do the same? Nobody else is going to do it for them.

You can disagree with their claims. But that is not the same as arguing that any form of self promotion is bad.

Of course, China is far from perfect. Bad things do happen, I am not denying that. If we are speaking about balance, then I think that in western discourse the balance has tipped too much towards the ‘china is always bad in every aspect’ side, totally ignoring or actively denying the good sides, and ignoring equally bad things that happen in their own places.

Will China meddle when their interests are threatened? Of course, and so will any other country in the world.

If China’s interests conflict with yours, then it is fine to point that out. It is not fine to paint them as the bad guys just because they have conflicting interests. And even then, such issues can be resolved peacefully: China has shown that it is interested in negotiation and being reasonable. You wouldn’t believe how much land China has given up since the 40s as part of negotiation deals with other countries. It is time to stop this cold war mentality where it is us vs the evil commies who are out to conquer the world.

[winrid]

"What makes China feel alien to us is that this is their default stance" - Very well said!

I relate to this a lot based on my visit there. Things seem very unified. Hell, even dozens of old people get together every night and dance on the street. When have you ever seen communities like that in the US? We're too busy being self absorbed. We have no shared mission.

[Polylactic_acid]

>What makes China feel alien to us is that this is their default stance.

Isn't having a massive military Americas default stance as well?

[kelnos]

Parent's comment had nothing to do with military, but with an authoritarian executive's power to unilaterally get things done quickly, if they so desire.

The US was sometimes able to mobilize quickly in response to extraordinary circumstances (WWII production being an example), but that isn't really our default state, and requires consensus-building rather than orders from on high. But sadly our ability to do so even in extraordinary circumstances has atrophied.

[dwohnitmok]

It's perhaps worth noting that even in the U.S., these wartime mobilizations have often been carried out by comparatively authoritarian governments (especially in comparison to peacetime U.S. government), e.g. the suspension of habeas corpus and mass arrests during the U.S. Civil War, German internment and the Espionage and Sedition Acts of World War 1, and mass Japanese internment camps and the Office of Censorship during World War 2.

[soneil]

An entirely accidental comparison - I recently finished a series of novels set in the US's pacific fleet during ww2, so that was simply the example at the forefront of my mind.

But as a European, the US's military footing doesn't feel alien to us at all. They're essentially the modernization of the British Empire, in that their single greatest "weapon" is force projection, rather than the million-man-armies of the East. We don't necessarily identify with it anymore, but it still feels more familiar than alien.

[briandear]

As a percentage of GDP, the American military isn’t massive. It’s smaller than China’s. It’s smaller than India’s and only slightly bigger than little North Korea.

[undefinedblog]

I'm no expert but I think your words are rhetorical.

[C19is20]

Live in n. italy. Went shopping today to large supermarket. On way, few people in cars, many people out walking though, especially with kids. Supermarket nose-wipe section hit fairly hard, but that was it. Stockers were tending to other areas (either no nose wipes left, or not bothered?). Nobody was panicking buying. There was a pa with 'keep a meter away from everybody' announce, which made my kid laugh as we'd been watching you tube video on how far a sneeze can travel. Italians are touchy-feely poeople and this scare might make them take things a bit more seriously healthwise. Friday, i have a hospital appointment for a recent leg injury - will let you know :-) as three weeks ago i was in hospital for 6 days and i got the impression they were 'preparing' for a big outbreak - very few actual doctors around, nurses stepping up, orderlies assisting nurses with basics.

[pas]

Are you concerned about the news out of Bergamo?

[C19is20]

No, not worried. To me it's 50/50 (im about 1.5hr drive from bergamo)chance that can be tilted in my favor by cleanliness, but more luck… but airborne is airbone. I was out again today - people are a bit 'aware'… but i went to 2 different stores - both fine, asked the cashiers how they are... they're fine. I got the impression shoppers are buying what they need. A middle-aged lady coughed without covering her mouth, that was annoying. Today looks like all kids are 100% at home, not even being out with their friends - that might last two days max, but it's no worse than having measles.

[tigroferoce]

I am. My wife is a MD, not in Bergamo, though, but the news are quite worrying :-(

[fredoliveira]

I am sorry about hijacking this, but I don't know what's happening in Bergamo. Particularly hard flare of the virus, or something else? Tried searching for news, didn't get far.

[cataflam]

You can read this report from a doctor there (translated in English on reddit): https://www.reddit.com/r/medicine/comments/ff8hns/testimony_...

(the original links in Italian are at the bottom of the post if you prefer that)

[kryogen1c]

And long comments full of vivid imagery lile this are EXACTLY why people are dissuaded from making social media posts, exemplified by the poster:

"Sorry, but to me, as a doctor, it's not reassuring that the most serious are mainly elderly people with other pathologies."

This could not be less helpful or more harmful. There is no useful information (that i got to, couldnt get all the way through). This is not an letter to the who or CDC trying to affect policy. This is a goddamn reddit post to scare people, vaguely, with the feelings of hospital staff. Im glad this doctor cares about comorbid patients, but this emotional non-rational prose is what drives mass hysteria and panics. We need data and recommendations.

[jdietrich]

>We are, as much of the world, importers from China, but many enterprises here are also, somewhat, strong exporters to China

Italy also has a surprisingly large number of Chinese migrant workers, mainly in the fashion and leather goods sector. Skilled Chinese workers in Milan and Prato provide the kudos of the "Made in Italy" label at considerably lower cost.

https://www.economist.com/special-report/2018/05/17/long-ter...

[perrywky]

Many of them are from Zhejiang province of China, and since the outbreak in Italy, Zhejiang now have 7 "imported cases" from Italy.

http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2020-03/03/c_138838575.htm

[starfallg]

You hit the nail on the head. In addition to the fashion industry, Italy is a favourite destination for Chinese tourists for sightseeing as well as buying luxury and said fashion goods.

[hatenberg]

There is good evidence the initial cases in Italy were tourism related.

As for praising the Chinese response - I think the reasons will be very clear soon to most people - without a very decisive and heavy handed response the health care systems in most developed countries will face very severe consequences or collapse.

We are at the denial stage still with people finding excuses why Italy is different, etc, etc

The US is 8 days behind Italy is 8 days behind Korea.

[dx034]

Yes, not only are Chinese and Italian cases related, most southern German cases are also related to those in Italy.

[rawoke083600]

Who is "us" ? Hackernews are being read from around the world. I'm for example from South Africa.

[stbn]

Us Italians

[cjbprime]

Italy also has the second-oldest population in the world, after Japan. And a below average number of hospital beds available per capita.

[ncallaway]

I'm not sure what country you're from. If you're from the States (where I see a lot of denialism):

Italy has 3.18 beds per 1,000 people. The United States has 2.77 beds per 1,000 people.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_OECD_countries_by_hosp...

[cjbprime]

Yes. Both Italy and the US are below average. South Korea and Japan, currently taking extremely drastic measures like mass-closing schools, have around 5x as many beds as either.

I'm in the US, but if you think that makes me think the US is prepared, you have it backwards. I'd guess that if we're not in worse shape than Italy in two weeks, we'll be very lucky.

[pmayrgundter]

Agreed.

For the country as a whole, I have it at 20 days until we run out of beds. Like Italy, seems reasonable to expect some areas will hit it sooner.

Here's my growth equation:

BedsNeeded = CurrentCases * DailyGrowthRate ^ DaysOfGrowth * SevereAndCriticalRate

708 = CurrentCases, the number of COVID-19 cases in the US as of March 9, 2020. [1]

1.6 = DailyGrowthRate, Number of today's cases / Number of yesterday's cases. [2]

20 = DaysOfGrowth, how many days to run the simulation.

0.1 = SevereAndCriticalRate, the percentage of cases requiring a hospital bed. [3]

855,919 = BedsNeeded

This is based on the above-quoted 2.77 beds per 1000 people, and a US population of 327.2M people, for 906,344 beds available.

[1] https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ [2] Ibid, rough average of last week's growth rate [3] Rough guess from above comments and other reading.

Working sheet:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/15CRanm0MHyappT_3J1qc...

[cjbprime]

Also keep in mind that we need ICU beds (ventilators) in particular for this, and that they have some base rate of utilization unrelated to COVID-19 that isn't easily moved.

[yellowapple]

I'm not sure what the GP's comment has to do with one's nationality. Both are facts, regardless of whether or not the United States is worse on one of those metrics.

[ncallaway]

In the United States there's a lot of denialism right now.

People here are trying to find any reason that they can point to about other countries to indicate that the drastic measures that they've taken aren't necessary here.

That the hospitals being pushed to the breaking point won't happen here.

I wasn't sure if that's what cjbprime was going for (and it wasn't!), but I thought I'd respond to that sentiment just in case. I think it's important that more people here (specifically in the United States) consider the possibility that we'll be in a similar situation as Italy in a few weeks.

[yellowapple]

Fair, though I don't think the US is especially unique in that regard; plenty of other countries seem to be denying the issue until it's too late. Even China waited until right before the start of the Chinese New Year (by which point a bunch of people were already out and about traveling) to impose its quarantine on Wuhan; by that point, South Korea already had confirmed cases, and the virus was likely already in Italy (the first two cases were confirmed just a couple days later).

Hell, my folks think we all might've gotten in way back in early January on a family cruise we took; a bunch of us came down with what we all thought was a particularly nasty flu, but without any nausea (just headaches, muscle aches, fatigue, and coughing) midway through. My stepmom ended up going to the hospital when she didn't get over it after a week (but it was still well before anyone thought SARS-CoV-2 had spread beyond China, so nobody tested for it, despite testing for the more typical flus and not finding anything; they ended up treating her as if it was a flu anyway). The rest of us toughed it out and eventually got over it, me figuring "alright I guess the normal seasonal flu is just extra bad this year; next year I'm totally gonna remember to get that flu shot, promise".

The thought was in the back of my mind for awhile that "maybe we did get Coronavirus somehow" (e.g. from other tourists on the boat), especially when the reports of cruise ship quarantines hit the news. In hindsight, I probably should've acted on it and gotten checked out, or otherwise at least said something. If only foresight was 20/20, too. I still don't think it really was SARS-CoV-2 (if it was, I'd expect coworkers and friends and non-cruise-attending family to have gotten it, too, but that didn't seem to be the case; then again, maybe they did get sick and made the same assumption of "nah, this is just the usual winter flu or cold"), but still.

Not sure where I was going with that, but yeah. I think the denialism's just because of previous epidemics in recent memory getting widespread news coverage (swine flu, bird flu, West Nile, etc.) only to end up being minor compared to, say, Spanish flu or polio or measles or other "realer" pandemics from "back in the olden days" (or even current ones like HIV/AIDS, which we all were fine with ignoring 'cause "we're good Christians boys and girls and not them there homosexuals or adulterers").

And then we see the same pattern unfolding here and expect it to blow over again. For all we know we've all been getting infected but we laugh it off as "oh yeah, sure, I totally have the beer virus, guess I get to call in sick, hahaha" and work through it, hoping that there's no truth to that particular joke.

[BlargMcLarg]

What interests me in the cases is specifically, Western or Western-style countries seem to be rising up far quicker than others. The more withheld a country is and/or the more draconian their measures, the less cases they have. Finland stood out as an interesting case so far where the number hasn't risen terribly. There was an Asian island (not Japan or Indonesia, don't remember) that was also doing incredibly well and specifically had lots of draconian measures. So the countries that end up getting lots of cases are at least somewhat outgoing in nature (accepting or taking part in a lot of tourism, lots of social activities in open communities instead of closed communities leading to lots of varied social contact) and unwilling to change this.

As an example: The Netherlands, where I live, has had a significant rise and our measures are.. self-isolate on showing symptoms, wash hands more often and don't shake hands. The former completely misses the problems with spreading during the incubation period (and worse, there are cases where you may leave, despite not being tested negative yet, solely on the basis of not showing symptoms. This totally misses the fact one can still be a carrier for at least a few days: antibodies don't work outside your body, last time I checked biology). The middle one is self-explanatory, but may also hurt your microbiome and can cause resistant bacteria when done too aggressively. The third measure.. completely misses the scope of the problem. You can still touch objects others have touched on the regular, still opening up a potentially worse way for the virus to carry over. Not to mention the primarily presented alternative is to.. touch elbows? Which looks like a poor joke and still results in touch.

What are some alternatives that would have more effect? Work from home unless coming to the office is absolutely necessary, don't go to social places (especially not large city centers like Amsterdam, Utrecht, etc.), avoid social contact with strangers or outgoing people. All measures that could be implemented fairly easily and have minimal impact on the economy given the alternatives: can't shop physically? Shop online. Can't have social contact online? Play an online game, chat through VoIP. Not working at the office? Surely you can be at least 80-90% as efficient as at the workplace with some etiquette, have some discipline. And don't get me started on people who get the flu, infect others and completely ignore that other illnesses may mask the virus.

Maybe survival of the fittest just needed to weed out stupidity. But hey, that's all just my opinion / hypothesis.

[knee-cartilage]

Italy is Iran's largest trading partner out of all the countries in the EU iirc

[Angostura]

China has seen massive decline in the number of new cases in Hubei. It’s no surprise the response is being praised.

[jpxw]

Can they be believed?

[PKop]

Give this a read. Supposedly verified by on the ground outside sources

https://twitter.com/AbraarKaran/status/1236680328875474944

[barry-cotter]

Maybe not in the fine details but in the broad outlines yes. With a doubling time in cases of four or five days without containment measures it would be obvious to me here in Shanghai that people were getting sick and hospitals were overloaded with new cases.

[AlexCoventry]

WHO's recent fact-finding visit to China believed them, FWIW.

[hi5eyes]

WHO's legitimacy is declining after their approach on china and the general covid19 situation. people seem to think the WHO tried to downplay the severity

[FooBarWidget]

I see nothing in WHO’s actions that suggest they are downplaying things. If anything, WHO has repeatedly issues warnings for western countries to do more.

In my opinion, the distrust in WHO just reflects poorly on the people who are distrustful. They are so hell-bent on confirming their world view that China must be the bad guy, that they would rather believe that the WHO is corrupted than accepting the facts.

[yitchelle]

You can lead the horse to the water, but you can't make the horse drink the water.

[SpicyLemonZest]

The CCP claims new cases are almost eliminated outside of Wuhan city limits; that'd be a hard thing to fake if it were really churning along at peak strength.

[starfallg]

This is actually the hardest to believe. The virus has run it course in Wuhan and it is likely dieing down as a significant number of people having developed immunity to it.

But outside of Wuhan, there is likely a number of infected persons in the population still transmitting it and waiting to resurface into more serious cases after people get back to work.

[FooBarWidget]

I have family in China outside Hubei province. If COVID-19 really did spread widely to the rest of China then I would have known it, and hospitals would have absolutely been overwhelmed.

There are even multiple foreigners in China who can confirm the situation. Checkout the Youtube videos by Daniel Dumbrill in February.

Might there still be hidden carriers in the population? Absolutely. China must remain vigilant. This stuff is hard.

My wife is considering flying back to China if things get worse here in the Netherlands. I agree with her: I also think that by now China is probably safer than anywhere else in the world. Multiple provinces have downgraded their emergency level, some are even virus free. Within Wuhan, multiple temporary hospitals have closed because they are no longer needed. People are slowly getting back to work. Containment efforts are shifting from ‘preventing the virus from getting out’ to ‘prevent it from getting in from foreign countries’.

[starfallg]

That's expected based on data from South Korea - the hospitalisation rate is lower than in China with more widespread testing. The virus is both more transmissible and less virulent than the Chinese data suggests. The outcome is the same - hospital bed and ICUs swamped.

As such, we'll know when life resumes and people go back to work en masse.

[dzdt]

Yes, I think the CCP could only stretch the truth by about one order of magnitude without the lie being obvious. Has China reported accurately every prison outbreak? Probably not. Is COVID-19 spreading widely in China now? No.