[ncallaway]

In the United States there's a lot of denialism right now.

People here are trying to find any reason that they can point to about other countries to indicate that the drastic measures that they've taken aren't necessary here.

That the hospitals being pushed to the breaking point won't happen here.

I wasn't sure if that's what cjbprime was going for (and it wasn't!), but I thought I'd respond to that sentiment just in case. I think it's important that more people here (specifically in the United States) consider the possibility that we'll be in a similar situation as Italy in a few weeks.

[yellowapple]

Fair, though I don't think the US is especially unique in that regard; plenty of other countries seem to be denying the issue until it's too late. Even China waited until right before the start of the Chinese New Year (by which point a bunch of people were already out and about traveling) to impose its quarantine on Wuhan; by that point, South Korea already had confirmed cases, and the virus was likely already in Italy (the first two cases were confirmed just a couple days later).

Hell, my folks think we all might've gotten in way back in early January on a family cruise we took; a bunch of us came down with what we all thought was a particularly nasty flu, but without any nausea (just headaches, muscle aches, fatigue, and coughing) midway through. My stepmom ended up going to the hospital when she didn't get over it after a week (but it was still well before anyone thought SARS-CoV-2 had spread beyond China, so nobody tested for it, despite testing for the more typical flus and not finding anything; they ended up treating her as if it was a flu anyway). The rest of us toughed it out and eventually got over it, me figuring "alright I guess the normal seasonal flu is just extra bad this year; next year I'm totally gonna remember to get that flu shot, promise".

The thought was in the back of my mind for awhile that "maybe we did get Coronavirus somehow" (e.g. from other tourists on the boat), especially when the reports of cruise ship quarantines hit the news. In hindsight, I probably should've acted on it and gotten checked out, or otherwise at least said something. If only foresight was 20/20, too. I still don't think it really was SARS-CoV-2 (if it was, I'd expect coworkers and friends and non-cruise-attending family to have gotten it, too, but that didn't seem to be the case; then again, maybe they did get sick and made the same assumption of "nah, this is just the usual winter flu or cold"), but still.

Not sure where I was going with that, but yeah. I think the denialism's just because of previous epidemics in recent memory getting widespread news coverage (swine flu, bird flu, West Nile, etc.) only to end up being minor compared to, say, Spanish flu or polio or measles or other "realer" pandemics from "back in the olden days" (or even current ones like HIV/AIDS, which we all were fine with ignoring 'cause "we're good Christians boys and girls and not them there homosexuals or adulterers").

And then we see the same pattern unfolding here and expect it to blow over again. For all we know we've all been getting infected but we laugh it off as "oh yeah, sure, I totally have the beer virus, guess I get to call in sick, hahaha" and work through it, hoping that there's no truth to that particular joke.

[BlargMcLarg]

What interests me in the cases is specifically, Western or Western-style countries seem to be rising up far quicker than others. The more withheld a country is and/or the more draconian their measures, the less cases they have. Finland stood out as an interesting case so far where the number hasn't risen terribly. There was an Asian island (not Japan or Indonesia, don't remember) that was also doing incredibly well and specifically had lots of draconian measures. So the countries that end up getting lots of cases are at least somewhat outgoing in nature (accepting or taking part in a lot of tourism, lots of social activities in open communities instead of closed communities leading to lots of varied social contact) and unwilling to change this.

As an example: The Netherlands, where I live, has had a significant rise and our measures are.. self-isolate on showing symptoms, wash hands more often and don't shake hands. The former completely misses the problems with spreading during the incubation period (and worse, there are cases where you may leave, despite not being tested negative yet, solely on the basis of not showing symptoms. This totally misses the fact one can still be a carrier for at least a few days: antibodies don't work outside your body, last time I checked biology). The middle one is self-explanatory, but may also hurt your microbiome and can cause resistant bacteria when done too aggressively. The third measure.. completely misses the scope of the problem. You can still touch objects others have touched on the regular, still opening up a potentially worse way for the virus to carry over. Not to mention the primarily presented alternative is to.. touch elbows? Which looks like a poor joke and still results in touch.

What are some alternatives that would have more effect? Work from home unless coming to the office is absolutely necessary, don't go to social places (especially not large city centers like Amsterdam, Utrecht, etc.), avoid social contact with strangers or outgoing people. All measures that could be implemented fairly easily and have minimal impact on the economy given the alternatives: can't shop physically? Shop online. Can't have social contact online? Play an online game, chat through VoIP. Not working at the office? Surely you can be at least 80-90% as efficient as at the workplace with some etiquette, have some discipline. And don't get me started on people who get the flu, infect others and completely ignore that other illnesses may mask the virus.

Maybe survival of the fittest just needed to weed out stupidity. But hey, that's all just my opinion / hypothesis.

[kalleboo]

> There was an Asian island (not Japan or Indonesia, don't remember) that was also doing incredibly well and specifically had lots of draconian measures

Are you thinking of Singapore?