This is super scary. Before I read this I was happily thinking hey it's no worse than flu. Now... I'm wishing I didn't live in a huge city riding the subway daily.
Learning about the mechanism by which it kills shouldn't change our estimates of the lethality of the disease. We already knew that for most people it was just a bad flue but a noticeable fraction of those infected needed to get to an ICU. Now we just have a better idea of why.
I keep trying to not look up Coronavirus news online, but I can't help it... and after reading this I'm genuinely terrified. The word "potential" on the title is entirely invisible to me.
Oddly enough, I was on the "pandemic" bandwagon early enough that my period of anxiety and insomnia has now passed already. People get used to new states of affair pretty quickly.
Mortality rate of covid19 for people with cancer is estimated at over 6%. My mom has cancer. Every person who gets covid19 but thinks "oh it wasn't that bad" makes it just a little more likely that people like my mom will contract it.
The reason to not panic but be prepared is that humanity has zero immunity to this virus, whereas there's lots of group immunity to influenza. I'm not sure why it's so hard for people to see the issue here.
It's significantly more deadly than the flu. But also, people should probably take influenza more seriously anyways.
China also had some pretty extreme measures to get their low number of cases, measures I don't think will play out too well in the US. And probably won't have a full count yet.
We can hope for the best, we can wash hands etc., but it's not unrealistic to say this can get bad.
The rates in China are dropping because they have some form of travel restrictions for 780m people. If those restrictions would be removed, the rates would go up immediately as seen before and now in other countries.
You can't compare absolute deaths between the flu and WCV.
The flu infects nearly 20% of the world's population each year. Estimates by the NIH are 10-20% annually in the US, and those numbers are probably similar in other countries. China has a billion people, so that means the flu infects probably 200 million people each year but only 130,000 die. The death rate is below 0.2%.
In contrast, only about 90,000 people have been infected with WCV so far. Thousands have died. The death rate is at 3.8%, or roughly 19-20x higher than the flu.
Have you considered the fatality rate and what would happen if it reaches the same percentage of population as seasonal flu?
Check out Spanish Flu for worst case scenario.
China restrictions have been much more stringent than what you imply. People in Wuhan were prevented from leaving their apartments at all and needed to wait for food from the government.
The jury is still out whether softer forms of restrictions can work once the disease is widespread. We will see about that by watching South Korea and Italy. (We know it works if there are not too many cases around, like in Singapore.)
This makes zero sense. We know the fatality rate. We know the R0. We know how many people have it currently and how fast it’s spreading. It’s simple math.