[refurb]

Is there any reason to believe other countries won’t institute travel restrictions if they get a ton of cases?

My point is that based on how many die from the flu each year, you’d have to see 130,000 deaths in China for the impact to be the same as the flu.

[gamblor956]

You can't compare absolute deaths between the flu and WCV.

The flu infects nearly 20% of the world's population each year. Estimates by the NIH are 10-20% annually in the US, and those numbers are probably similar in other countries. China has a billion people, so that means the flu infects probably 200 million people each year but only 130,000 die. The death rate is below 0.2%.

In contrast, only about 90,000 people have been infected with WCV so far. Thousands have died. The death rate is at 3.8%, or roughly 19-20x higher than the flu.

[nopinsight]

Have you considered the fatality rate and what would happen if it reaches the same percentage of population as seasonal flu?

Check out Spanish Flu for worst case scenario.

China restrictions have been much more stringent than what you imply. People in Wuhan were prevented from leaving their apartments at all and needed to wait for food from the government.

The jury is still out whether softer forms of restrictions can work once the disease is widespread. We will see about that by watching South Korea and Italy. (We know it works if there are not too many cases around, like in Singapore.)

[refurb]

Have you considered the fatality rate and what would happen if it reaches the same percentage of population as seasonal flu?

Yeah, that would be bad, but there is no data to suggest it would get that bad.

[empath75]

This makes zero sense. We know the fatality rate. We know the R0. We know how many people have it currently and how fast it’s spreading. It’s simple math.