[riffraff]

I am very curious, but worried, of the situation in HK.

Concretely, it seems HKers can protest as much as they want, but when push comes to shove, the PRC will just end up crushing them and the parts of democracy they still have.

I can't imagine how they may get any other outcome. Even if I wish they could just gain independence, it seems unlikely, and it's not like any foreign power would go to war to protect HK.

[sho]

Your analysis is 100% correct.

The handover was more than 20 years ago. The horizon for total integration was 50 years. We're more than 40% through. Pre-handover was "britain in asia". The endgame is "full integration".

HK is nowhere near 40% full integration. Progress has fallen behind, and now they are catching up. The wishful thinking of HK residents doesn't change anything. The writing has been on the wall for decades. There's only one way this ends.

Personally I hate all of this. I loved HK being its own little out-of-place enclave in the orient. But that all changed in 1997; the script has been written, and events will grind forward to the inevitable conclusion. Most people I know in HK are thinking about their "Plan B". They would be advised to hurry it up.

[ginko]

As far as I know that the agreement was for Hong Kong's way of life to "remain unchanged" for 50 years. So it should have been 2047 when they can start thinking about integrating Hong Kong.

[tluyben2]

Yes, your parent poster is incorrect about the facts; they (China) did sign to leave HK be until 2047, not ‘start integration’ in some kind linear process where 40% of the time means 40% integration. They signed for 99.9999% of the time is 0% integration. But he is right about the reality; no one will defend HK it seems so China might as well push ahead in that case. I like HK a lot; I have not found a place as diverse as that anywhere else (tips are welcome and no, SG is nothing at all like it) but it seems it is closer to being absorbed.

[goobynight]

I'm glad I had the chance to live and work in HK from summer 2016 -> Fall 2017. It wasn't the best place ever, but I'd hate to see it lost.

Seeing this is crazy.

As for diversity, it's a unique mix. Notable quantities of French, British, Americans, Indonesians, Filipinos, Thais, Indians, and locals. Indonesians and Filipinos are obviously insanely marginalized, as domestic helpers, but they were cool to hang with on their 1 day off per week.

[tluyben2]

I like the massive diversity of people and land; I am in a forest with cobras and rare turtles; 30 minutes on a ferry to a densely populated city. 24/7 eat/drink/party minutes away from where you are in most places. Complete rest and nature the same distance. Cheap as chips and hella expensive on the same streets. I just cannot find anything like it. I think Bangkok comes closest but it is just not the same dense nature (personally I have 0 interest in beaches; I like forest, high humidity and steep climbs through that).

[OkGoDoIt]

Any chance you’re on Lamma Island? That’s where I used to live and I loved it for the exact reasons you described. I miss HK, hope that if I ever have a chance to move back in the future it won’t be torn to shreds by the China integration.

[graeme]

>I can't imagine how they may get any other outcome.

The only way would be is if the chinese government changed. Not all that likely, but on the other hand the Berlin wall was only up 30 years.

Tomorrow is always a better day to die.

[nailer]

Back in... IIRC 2012 mainland regime tried to impose the PRC school curriculum, which includes a bunch of false things (Mao defeating the Japanese instead of Chiang Kai Shek) and obviously removes references to others (the Tiananmen massacre).

The teachers won and the PRC curriculum was never implemented.

[rubinelli]

The problem with erosion of rights is that they have to fight and win every time. The PRC just has to win once.

[trevyn]

>I can't imagine how they may get any other outcome.

There is one person who has made himself a big single point of failure for China.

[lonelappde]

Who?

[Reimersholme]

I assume he's referring to emperor Xi. I don't think it's correct to consider him a single point of failure though.

[Merrill]

The population of PRC is approximately 200 times the population of Hong Kong.

[underthebus]

> Even if I wish they could just gain independence, it seems unlikely, and it's not like any foreign power would go to war to protect HK.

I never understood this. Why would HK gain 'independence'? Why would a foreign power 'protect' HK? (protect from what?)

HK has been used to build a narrative that is rather strange... Frankly people in HK calling for independence are a bit like, say, the Texas Nationalist Movement or calling for Seattle independence. It's a fringe movement at best.

[simonh]

I don't think most HKers, even protesters, expect independence. They're just trying to keep the freedoms they already have. The protests aren't campaigning for new rights or new freedoms, but to prevent new laws taking existing rights away.

I think a lot of HKers are coming to realise that under the current political system their rights are always going to be under threat, and eventually will be eroded completely. The only way to prevent that is true democracy. So it's not that true democracy is the motivation for this.

[riffraff]

> Why would HK gain 'independence?

because if they don't they will be slowly assimilated into a non-democratic PRC. I am not calling for independence, I'm saying it would be nice if they had it rather than add 7m people to a regime.

> Why would a foreign power 'protect' HK?

they wouldn't, that's the point.

If HK were to declare independence, in other ages there might have been foreign powers propping them up _for their own interests_. I am not advocating this, I'm just pointing out this seems unlikely in the current world.

As for the Seattle independence: well, HK was independent for a while, and they hare already a SAR, the simile seems incorrect, but sure, it's not trivial to secede.

[mytailorisrich]

People fail to understand or accept that HK is in China. It is a rather strange state of affairs, which I think is due to ignorance and, frankly, anti-Chinese narratives.

What you are suggesting is exactly the same as discussing Seattle independence mentioned by GP, and should be regarded as equally extravagant.

> HK was independent for a while

HK was never, ever been independent.

[benj111]

The population of Hong Kong is apparently 7+ million, and 2 million went on one of the marches. Doesn't seem 'fringe' to me.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-48656471

[underthebus]

Trying to claim that these 2 million people campaign for HK independence is not honest.

[skosch]

Well of course – almost nobody is really campaigning for independence. HK is very much dependent on the mainland, and that's understood. The demands are much more narrow: for the extradition bill to be scrapped, for Carrie Lam to step down, for elections to be free and fair, etc.

[benj111]

Well until they are allowed a free and fair vote on that, saying its 'fringe at best' isnt honest either. I would contend that in the absence of such a vote, these numbers are enough to show you're wrong.

Also the news we are discussing demonstrates why the people of Hong Kong need protecting. So questioning that isnt honest either.

[sho]

What do you mean "apparently", like it's some kind of questionable assertion? It's 7+ million, period.

It's "fringe" because it's part of China, and even all 7+ million people in HK comprise less than 1% of China. I know many Chinese people, and they do not give a shit about HK's ideas about its own independence. They consider it China, full stop. The example about Seattle "declaring independence" the GP gave is actually quite apt. There is only one way this will play out.

I happen to vehemently disagree with what the PRC is doing, for what it's worth. But reality is reality and this script is going to unfold exactly as everyone thinks it will. In 10 years time I doubt there'll even be a border. Who's going to stop them? Boris Johnson?

[benj111]

"What do you mean "apparently""

Nothing beyond being not 100% sure whether that referred to the entirety of the territory or just the city.

I don't think its fair to count the entirety of China when deciding whether its fringe. Irish unification is 'fringe' in the UK, doesn't stop it being important to a sizable proportion of Northern Ireland. South Sudan independence was probably 'fringe' within greater Sudan, that doesn't mean it wasn't important the South Sudanese.

And I never said any independence bid would be successful, that doesn't stop people wanting it. So yes I agree with your last paragraph.

[dirtyid]

A Chinese general recently did a demographic analysis of HK and attributed to the generational lashing out to a "failure" of education - a cohort of protesters educated on old UK textbooks, raised by anti CPC parents (HK is full of people who left China due to persecution or distaste for conditions on the Mainland). The western textbooks he finds a particularly grievous mistake, something to the lines of: we focused too much on two systems instead of one country. So I suppose CPC will just wait it out and educate future generations to party line. At least it'll be through textbooks instead of re-education camps.

Ultimately, as mainland economy makes HK increasingly irrelevant, it's in HKers interest to integrate and seek opportunities outside the city. Not every native HKer is qualified to be a financier / banker. The raising cost of living will not abate because HK is where Chinese wealth and FDI is being funneled - and basically the only real strategic importance the city has. That's just the byproduct of extreme wealth concentration in "tier1" cities everywhere. But everywhere else, the poor get priced out, but since HK operates as a city state, people with little prospects are trapped with nowhere to go. And if they're smart, they'll realize this and either move abroad or move on.

Functionally, the sooner HKers accept they'll never be anything but Chinese the sooner they can get on with their lives and out of HK. If they're lucky they'll be extended HKSAR affirmative action privileges so they can still pretend they're better than mainlanders. And really that's what it's about isn't it? It's almost like Cantonese equivalent alt-right thought - a bunch of disenfranchised kids with very little future prospects, reminiscing about a privileged past they've never actually experienced (a few years at the tail end of colonial rule) or existed (independence/democracy). Yeah, they're also fighting for western liberal values, it's all very noble and stuff. That's good western media byline. But at the end of the day, many Cantonese youth also resent being culturally, financially and politically eclipsed by mainlanders - why some of the recent protests targetted mainland tourists just doing their thing (cause you know, China's not bringing their best). It's not limited to HK, a lot of westernized Sinophobia is rooted in the distaste and disbelief that once poor chicken farmers from shithole coal county now live in million dollar homes and drive fancy sports cars. But the mainland won't see them as anything but privileged has-been whiners who refused to integrate and adapt.

[dang]

It looks like you've been using HN primarily for nationalistic battle. That's not ok, and we ban accounts that do that, regardless of which nation they're for or against.

Would you please review https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html and use HN as intended? We'd be grateful.

[OkGoDoIt]

For what it’s worth I feel like the parent comment was fairly substantive, and in my experience having lived in both Hong Kong and China it’s a fairly levelheaded analysis of the current situation. I know hacker news is not really a place for political discussion, but a well thought out comment like this in an ongoing discussion about something that is clearly of interest to the community doesn’t feel like something that should result in the threat of a ban. Obviously the community standards are what they are, but that’s my two cents anyway.

[dirtyid]

Thank you for the heads up. I've been browsing hackernews on RSS for many years and only comment on topics I'm interested in, which is Chinese geopolitics and technology, and recently those topics have become extremely popular for obvious reasons. I'm curious which rule I'm specifically breaking, I provide generally level headed and substantive response to comments, rarely initiating "battles". I don't call people shills or shitpost. My other interests, powerlifting and architecture are not really covered here. So what is my recourse? Comment on other things I'm not particularly interested in? Should I cite more sources or stop contributing from these topics all together and go back to lurking.

[nexus2045]

HK born and raised here and enjoyed this comment. Not sure why it's downvoted - it offers a solid perspective.